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- TDG Invitational
- Weather Reports
- Pitchers to Use and Abuse
- SaberSim Says…
1. The Daily Grind Invitational
We’re back to 52 entries tonight on FantasyDraft. It’s kinda important we come close to filling this one. That requires just four or five more people to make two entries apiece. Don’t worry, they’re guaranteed to be neutral expected value or better – usually better. Why? Because it’s a no rake GPP, and it usually doesn’t fill.
If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.
2. Weather Reports
Cincinnati isn’t included in tonight’s contest which is just as well because it’s a postponement risk. Also endangered is the Cubs-Nationals game in Washington. An important Phillies-Mets matchup isn’t entirely out of the woods, but they’ll probably play.
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
Main Slate: We’re cooking with 14 games are quite a few high quality pitchers. Blake Snell ($24,000) is the priciest arm, and he probably deserves this distinction. The Orioles have a 77 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Dylan Bundy ($12,800) might be a modest bargain since Tropicana Field could help him to avoid his usual home run issues.
Next up is Aaron Nola ($23,200) in what the Phillies must hope will be an easy victory. Pitcher friendly CitiField and a punchless Mets lineup further improve the outlook for Nola. Steven Matz ($14,800) is reasonably priced after snapping off a trio of strong outings.
Carlos Carrasco ($22,100) comes in three iterations: world-beater, adequate, and scrubby. He’s a great GPP play in a visit to Toronto. He’s more likely to post the top pitching score than Snell or Nola, but he comes with much more risk of a sub-10 point performance.
Patrick Corbin ($21,100) will host Kevin Gausman ($15,300). The Gas-can has a sub-2.00 ERA since joining the Braves. Also an over-4.00 xFIP. We’ll see how that plays out in a semi-difficult matchup. Both sides are par value in my opinion.
Gerrit Cole ($19,600) is sort of a scarier version of Carrasco tonight. He’s a more consistent pitcher – probably because his fastball isn’t a glaring weakness like Carrasco’s. However, a matchup against the Red Sox at Fenway is highly risky. Still, he’s a far better value than David Price for $18,000. That’s at least a $2,000 overpay.
In Seattle, James Paxton ($18,600) hosts Masahiro Tanaka ($17,700). This is a slightly cheaper repeat of the Astros-Red Sox matchup. This time, the better pitcher has home field advantage. The Yankees lineup isn’t as scary as Boston’s and the venue is modestly pitcher friendly. Tanaka is overpriced by $2,000. He’s highly volatile.
Look at this cheap Clayton Kershaw ($16,900) at… Coors Field. I’m still very tempted by this bargain opportunity – assuming he pitches around Nolan Arenado. I’d steer clear of a struggling Jon Gray ($14,500).
Down in bargainland, Felix Pena ($13,100) is easily the top value. Right SaberSim? I guess we’ll see in a moment. As we’ve noted in these electronic pages, Pena’s slider velocity has rebounded, leading to strong production. The White Sox are very strikeout prone.
Some others to consider include Chris Archer ($14,800) vs the Marlins and Chase Anderson ($13,500) hosting the Giants. I suppose $12,700 Derek Holland is viable, although I always worry about the Brewers potential for crooked numbers.
4. SaberSim Says…
Snell, Paxton, Corbin, Nola, and Kershaw are the preferred arms. Top playable value belongs to… drumroll please… Pena. Archer, Bundy, Anderson, and Kershaw round out the top five. By “playable,” I mean a projected point total sufficient to actually maybe win.
Mike Trout, Javier Baez, Jose Ramirez, Anthony Rizzo, and Daniel Murphy top the list of bats. Careful with those Chicago hitters (rain). Also, Trout may be sidelined. Bargains include Logan Forsythe, Victor Robles, Miguel Sano, Corey Dickerson, and Billy McKinney.
It was a night for Franciscos the world over. Except San Francisco. They didn’t play.
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