Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – September 18th, 2019

Paul Sporer: My chat has moved to Wednesday! Let’s roll!

Kevin: Does Michael Lorenzen intrigue you as a CF with, let’s say, 300 plate appearances in a deep league (15 team or deeper)?

Paul Sporer: I’m kind of intrigued, but it’d have to be a deeper league I think

Paul Sporer: I love that he’s a legit two-way player, though

Guest: To start Thor today, or not, that is the question.

Paul Sporer: Ughhh, it’s so hard. I’m actually starting him in my leagues so with that what you will

Ben: How are you valuing J-Ram over the next couple years in keeper/dynasty formats?

Paul Sporer: Still pretty highly. He’s a 2nd-3rd round value for sure.

Neal: Paul – Two guys I bought relatively high, Johan Camargo and Jose Peraza, have been pretty, pretty disappointing. It’s 30 team dynasty so I’m not dumping them, but is there much reason to hope for 2020 bouncebacks?

Paul Sporer: Peraza is only 26 so I could see some kind of bounceback, though admittedly I’ve never been a fan. At least he has the speed component. With the rabbit ball, Camargo’s value is tanked unless he taps into some more power that gets him into the upper-20s somehow

Aquino: You giving up on Aquino for the rest of the year as an elite must start guy for the playoffs?

Paul Sporer: As elite, perhaps, but I’m still starting him

Anonymous: Is Mitch Keller gonna get helium’d next draft season? Getting Nick Pivetta vibes (but in a good way)

Paul Sporer: I don’t think he’ll be helium’d to a cost prohibitive level, but I could see him being a popular sleeper

Wardo: I don’t have a question, I’d just like to thank Yordan Alvarez for the fact that I’m the finals in my H2H categories league… lord, that man can mash

Paul Sporer: He’s so good. Where are y’all gonna take him next year, especially as UT-only? He went 33rd in Justin’s Too Early Mocks

Richard : Safe to stream Mike Leake today or hell no?

Paul Sporer: Gotta go for him against Miami

Oddball Herrera: Buying Flaherty as a top 8-12 pitcher for 2020? Or is that too rich

Paul Sporer: He’ll move up when I update my SP rankings, but not quite that high – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-30-sp-rankings-for-2020/

Hank: Do you trust Boyd in his last two match-ups this season against CWS once he returns or time to move on? Worried about ERA risk.

Paul Sporer: If you’re in a precarious ERA position, I’d pass. HRs are the quickest way to tank an ERA

Matt: Does Strasburg get some NL Cy Young love? BP’s WARP has him as the most valuable player in the National League(barely edging out Bellinger)

Paul Sporer: For sure, he is a legitimate Cy contender!

G: Need to choose three more for next year 16 tm H2H next year w/ OBP, TB, QS. I have Vlad, Eloy and Soto at rounds 25, 24, 23 thanks to stashing.

Christian Yelich (rd 2 – year 2), Aaron Nola (3 – year 2), JT Realmuto (9 – year 2), DJ Lemahieu (10 – year 1), Blake Snell (12 – year 2), Jack Flaherty (21 – year 2),  Nate Lowe (25 – year 1), Artistedes Aquino (25 – year 1), Zach Wheeler (25, year 2)

Paul Sporer: Yelich, Snell, Flaherty

Catcher Streamer: How confirmed are you about the LAD Will Smith slump? Where is he on your catcher list for next year after the last few weeks?

Paul Sporer: I had him 6th – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-25-catchers-for-2020/

Ham: Obvs the #2Early Mocks are, indeed, too early. But are there players in the Top100 (particularly near the top) that you’re absolutely staying away from based on their 2Early ADP?

Paul Sporer: Bauer for sure. Machado based on price and position depth. Hoskins and Goldy based on cost of other 1B I love (namely Olson & Muncy). Glasnow – he improved and I acknowledge that, but there are other SP going after him that I prefer in comparison (Darvish, Gray, Carrasco, Woodruff)

Richard : Should I bench Mike Leake vs MIA today? Looking for help with ratios and possibly a W

Paul Sporer: Gotta pick on Miami

Guest: Laureano a top 20 OFer next year? His 2019 power and average seem sustainable, and he has realistic (given his MILB stats) room for improvement in OBP and SB

Paul Sporer: He can be but you don’t need to pay that. I love Laureano. He went 33rd at OF in the Too Early Mocks

Halp: Bench Puig for Nimmo today? Puig has been pretty meh.

Paul Sporer: Ya, gimme the Coors bat

bleepbloop: New 7×7 Dynasty league starting next season with standard categories +OBP+SLG for hitters, who are your top 3?

Paul Sporer: Acuña, Yelich, Trout

last call: St. Paul, what is your take on Diaz of Mets? Is he now mortal or just a dose of big city blues? Ask Sonny Gray how it felt in NYC. I say he is a much better bet in 2020 to dominate than say Hand who has his elbow barking. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think it was a Gray situation. I feel like he’s a solid bet to rebound and if I’m getting in the 8-10 range of closer, I’m not against going for him on the rebound

Oddball Herrera: Am I wrong in thinking that it is nearly impossible for any catcher to return decent ROI as a keeper in a keep 10 league? Assuming of course you have reasonable alternatives

Paul Sporer: I think the four studs are viable – JTR, Sanchez, Contreras, Grandal – but that’s really it

Kyle: I feel like people are really undervaluing Paddack for 2020. He finished strong, and for a rookie to post a 0.98 WHIP and K/9 above 9.0 in 140 IP is extremely impressive, no?

Paul Sporer: He’s discussed on the pod that will be up later today. I really like him and actually felt he was very fairly priced as the 24th SP off the board in the Mocks

Jay: 12 Team 5×5 keeper question: Can only keep two of Rizzo, Soler, and Gallo. Does Rizzo’s stability/BA floor trump the upside of other two?

Paul Sporer: Ya, I think you gotta go Rizzo/Gallo. Soler’s season has been awesome, but I’m keeping the other two

CaptainZippers: Prognosis on Ketel playing again this year isn’t good, is it? Already lost Yeli, and sitting on Turner, so I’m hoping for good news.

Paul Sporer: I might be suffering from recency bias, but damn this feels particularly brutal for studs missing time down the stretch. I’m nervous.

von: I have Trout and Paddack now eating 2 of my 3 bench spots in a 3-year keeper league. I could have Paddack as around a 13th round pick next year if I keep him. Is it alright to drop Paddack? Could use an extra pitcher spot in my semis this week.

Paul Sporer: If you absolutely need the spot, flags fly forever. It’s so hard to cut someone like that, but can’t play for next year when a title is in reach.

Paul Sporer: BRB – gotta take Charlotte out quickly

Logan: My opponent had a bye and scooped the only good 2 starters. I’m desperation streaming Clay Buchholz tonight against Baltimore. How terrified should I be?

Paul Sporer: Pretty terrified, but that’s a good team to pick on at least

Boyd Boy: Whats a way too early projection for Boyd in 2020?  Im struggling to view him as a keeper at this point despite his early season dominance.  Those homers, man.

Paul Sporer: Very Pivettaesque which means disaster could be on the horizon. As a projection, I’d go 4.30/1.23/190 K in 180 IP

Jay: In on Bogaerts repeating this years performance in 2020?

Paul Sporer: Ya, I love Bogaerts

bleepbloop: 10 tm h2h 6×6 (OPSxQS) keep forever league, am in the finals this week.  Worth hanging onto Josh Bell for next year even though he likely won’t play this week and isn’t on IL so I can’t replace him (I already dropped Justin Turner for this reason)? My other 1B is Hoskins, would use Bell’s spot to stream starters if I drop him.

Paul Sporer: I’m riding it out longer, but similar principle to the Paddack question applies. Don’t forgo a real chance to win a title bc it hurts 2020

Mike: Eloy is looking like a DUDE recently.  If you had to draft for a 10-team roto dynasty league tomorrow – what round would he *hypothetically* go?

Paul Sporer: 7th/8th

Halp: CAN YOU TELL ESPN TO MAKE TROUT AND GIOLITO DL ELIGIBLE IN MY KEEPER LEAGUE PLEASE – IN THE FINALS AND ITS KILLING ME

Paul Sporer: Same with Yelich, I feel your pain

Jim: Joey Votto had a 110 wRC+ in August and has a 165 wRC+ in September.  Is that enough of a second-half bounce-back to make him a top 10 first baseman in next year’s drafts?

Paul Sporer: No way, not top 10

Ben: Looking at the following for an open roster spot in 18 tm keeper. Which guy is 2020 gold? McCullers, Graterol, Dustin May, Michael Fulmer.

Paul Sporer: I’d go for McCullers or May

Nate: On Tyler Glasnow…think he can stay healthy moving forward? Or is he just a ticking time bomb for TJ at this point?

Paul Sporer: Let’s be honest, everyone is so I’m not gonna ADD extra risk to him

Trout Cannons: All the Acuna 40/40 talk obscuring the fact he’s been bad for the last 30 days. Even with the SB not sure how you can take him over Trout/Yelich in any format with OBP or SLG

Paul Sporer: Well I mean, what are Trout and Yelich doing lately? 🙂 Honestly, I took Trout #1 in a Mock, but I really think all 3 are viable at 1

tommy edman: what do you think he can do in a full season of work? doesnt seem like carp is a big obstacle to his playing time

Paul Sporer: Carp’s making 19 milly, he’s still a huge obstacle. That said, Edman can be a super utilityman. I think he can put up a 15 HR/20 SB season with 500 or so PA. Cardinals Devil Magic strikes againnnn

Ian: I was at the Reds Cubs game last nite & saw Darvish has at least 215 Ks but only 6 wins.. how would u find out the all time record for Ks in a season by a pitcher with, say, 6 wins or less? He HAS to be close if not the record holder

Paul Sporer: 18 instances ever, 14 of em since 2011: https://www.baseball-reference.com/tiny/emTPB

Paul Sporer: As you can see from the link, he needs 2 Ks to pass Sale for fewest wins & most Ks. I chose single digit wins for that query. If it’s just 6 Ws with 200+ Ks, it’s only the 4 (Lee, Pineda, Darvish, and Sale)

Nick: Very early in the season, I dropped Josh Bell to pick up Pete Alonso.  Should I feel (a) extremely smart, or (b) extremely foolish?

Paul Sporer: You’re Even Steven

Paul Sporer:

Anonymous: Ketel Marte or Manny Machado: WHO YA GOT?

Paul Sporer: They actually went right next to each in the mocks. I lean Marte slightly

Trent: Which starters get the biggest bump in value next year if MLB fixes the ball?  (Verlander seems like one obvious answer, but can he even get a bump if he’s already the number 1 pitcher?)

Paul Sporer: I’d probably just sort like this and go through this list looking for some guys who’d improve: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y…

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta post the pod and post tomorrow’s streamers! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a great weekend!