Paul Sporer Baseball Chat- October 20th, 2017 by Paul Sporer October 20, 2017 Thanks for coming out to chat ahead of Game 6 of the ALCS! Go JV! 5:30 Paul Sporer: Almost time for Game 6 of the ALCS! Let’s talk some baseball!!! 5:31 CT: Hey Paul, thanks for doing this, hope all is well. In my 6×6 12 team roto w/ $260 budget and 3 keepers, my best options (because I don’t wanna keep SPs) are C. Seager $35, C. Bellinger $10, T. Mancini $10, and R. Devers $10. Thoughts? 5:32 Paul Sporer: Bellinger and Dever for sure. I like what Mancini did, but I still think I’d rather pay the freight on Seager 5:33 Mike: 18 team H2H point Auction league only 2 keepers – who do you keep. 5:33 Paul Sporer: Ideally Trout and Harper 😉 5:35 Mike: Who do you keep? Betts for $13 with 1 year left or J.Ramirez with 2 yrs left. Other keeper is Bellinger for $4 for 3yr 5:36 Paul Sporer: Ooh that’s tough. I think I’d go Betts and Belly. Really tough to turn away Ramirez, but I’ll take the savings and go with Belly 5:37 Millie: 11 team, 40 man roster with 25 kept (6×6 with OBP and holds). My last 2 keepers will probably come from Duvall, Gardner, Nick Williams, Wacha, Doolittle, Vizcaino and Giolito. Any of those jump out to you assuming no specific needs (2017 Champ thanks in part to you all!!!)? Thanks! 5:39 Paul Sporer: While I do dig Duvall after he backed up his breakout, the OBP part just kills it for me with him. I think I’m going Doolittle for sure as he’ll be the Nats closer from day 1 and with health, he’s a solid bet for 40 saves and a boatload of Ks. I think I’d take a shot on Nick Williams with the other keeper. He showed some things in his half season and definitely has upside for more 5:39 JonCor: What kind of return could the Jays get for Kevin Pillar? 5:41 Paul Sporer: Probably a solid return given his elite defense in center and solid bat. Maybe an Adam Eaton-lite return? He doesn’t have Eaton’s bat, but his CF defense is much better 5:41 Jorge: Thoughts on Rodon moving forward? Considering selling low, the shoulder injuries just keep coming. 5:44 Paul Sporer: Ya the health is definitely the very scary part at this point. Healthy Rodon (which seems to only exist in video games w/injuries off) is awesome, but I understand the concerns. That said, I wouldn’t sell low right now. While past injury is the best indicator for future injury, it’s not a guarantee. And a healthy season would be special. With fewer and fewer arms throwing even 180 IP/season (let alone 200+), betting on these highly skilled, poor health profiles isn’t as risky these days 5:44 Sparks -ATX: Stros or Yanks game 6? give me 1 SP you are buying in 2nd year dynasty. 5:46 Paul Sporer: JV pushes it to a game 7! Are you looking for like a mid-tier SP to breakout? I like Jordan Montgomery and German Marquez 5:46 Hannah Hochevar: Wait, it’s you again? 5:46 Paul Sporer: It is! 5:46 Hannah Hochevar: Thanks for all the mad chattery! 5:46 Paul Sporer: No problem! Sorry I couldn’t start earlier. Had to catch a nap today. Maintenance was banging down my door around 8:30 AM and I couldn’t fall back asleep when they left an hour later so I took a quick day nap. OK, I’ll stop rambling 5:47 Seth: 12 team- 2 Keepers H2H. Hoskins (RD 11), Stroman (RD 9), Contreras (RD6), L. Weaver (RD 12). Any of them worth it? 5:49 Paul Sporer: I actually think they’re all plus value at those costs. I’d rank them as follows: Contreras, Hoskins, Stroman, and Weaver 5:50 Bennybadatroto: Hey Paul! Pick two of three future fantasy studs…. Scott Kingery, Bo Bichette, Kyle Tucker 5:51 Paul Sporer: Damn, it’s tough to kick one of those out, but I think I’m going Kingery for proximity to MLB and Bichette for pure upside (not that Tucker lacks upside) 5:51 Mike: Is Keston Hiura a future top 10 2B or 3B for fantasy? 5:55 Paul Sporer: I’m a newb on Hiura other than knowing he hit like .800 (actually .442 so I didn’t even need to exaggerate since the real number is absolutely bananas) his last yr at UC Irvine. He should be a relatively quick riser, but I’m not sure I’m ready to tab him as a potential top 10. I’m really excited to see how his tremendous hit tool ages up the minors and into the bigs. A few extra homers from Miller Park (he has OK power as-is, but the park will help) paired with a big AVG could push him into fantasy stardom 5:56 Sparks -ATX: thanks. mid tier is good for me. i own Mont.. my pitching is thin. Come to Gibson Bar. I’ll buy you a beer. 5:56 Paul Sporer: Hey I live near there!! 5:56 Paul Sporer: Here are my early SP ranks btw – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/october-2018-starting-pitcher-rankin… 5:56 Hannah Hochevar: How was Chance the Rapper live? Favorite new rapper lately is LISAAN’DRO (song: No Bueno) fwiw 5:57 Paul Sporer: It was a great show. I’d actually read a few negative comments on Chance live over the summer, but I had a great time. I’m not doubting the validity of the comments as he could’ve had an off show when those ppl saw him, but I was very pleased and look forward to seeing him again 5:58 Paul Sporer: Let’s listen together! 5:58 Paul Sporer: NSFW language… (probably a fair warning for about any song I post, tbh) 5:58 Your Maintenance man: Gausman. Castillo (Reds). Godley or Weaver. I need to trade for 1 in the offseason. 5:59 Paul Sporer: I love Castillo, but his helium could probably net a mint in the offseason so I’d really consider moving him 5:59 Seth: Do you see any rookieshaving a Bellinger-like impact next year? 5:59 Paul Sporer: I read that as “rookie shaving” 6:05 Paul Sporer: Hard to tab someone for that kind of impact, but I can see Ronald Acuna or Ryan McMahon going off among those who haven’t debuted yet and Willie Calhoun or Teoscar Hernandez going among those who got a cup of coffee (loved what I saw from Teoscar in Sept.) 6:05 El Guapo: Brandon woodruff or Luis Perdumo for 2018? 6:10 Paul Sporer: They’re close, but I’ll lean toward Perdomo. Love that GB% and if that changeup comes around, we’re in business. 6:10 Sparks-ATX: Don’t answer anymore questions from Seth..he might be in my league. See you at Gibson. #rookieshaving 6:10 Paul Sporer: #SethRoasted 6:10 Catchers: Who’s the yankees 3B in 2018? 6:12 Paul Sporer: Headley is still signed through ’18 6:13 TommyLasordid: Dodger outfield next year? Verdugo, Taylor, Puig, Hernandez? 6:13 Paul Sporer: What about Joc? 6:14 Paul Sporer: I have a hard time trying to predict LA’s roster at this point because they have so much flexibility and money so they can go so many different ways 6:15 Paul Sporer: BRB, gotta feed Charlotte! (Only a couple questions in the queue, too, so hit me with your Qs!) 6:26 Seth: Can Chris Taylor come close to repeating this years performance? Is he more like Daniel Murphy, in the way that his changes are more sustainable or was it fluky. I always seem to believe in breakout years when it is caused by a swing change ha. 6:30 Paul Sporer: I think the BABIP will come back to earth a bit, but the K/BB is a solid foundation and he was super efficient on the bases. Maybe more of a .270 AVG/15 HR/20 SB guy, but I’m taking that all day with OF/2B and potential to add SS and/or 3B in-season 6:30 Sparks-ATX: Holding Miguel Franco in dynasty? 6:31 Paul Sporer: Ya, I just can’t quit him. Great contact rate with that kind of power is too enticing at age-25 next year 6:34 Walt: Would you seriously consider keeping Alex Reyes in a 16 team 10 keeper league? No value attached (round or $) to keepers. 6:35 Paul Sporer: The full answer depends on the players in question that you could keep instead of him, but I’m OK with a high upside flier for my 10th in this case. I’m tempering expectations the first year back from TJ, but the talent is enticing 6:35 Sparks-ATX: ok to deal Franco and Piscotty this off-season. Or hold? 20 Team Dynasty. 6:36 Paul Sporer: Unless you’ve got a me or Eno in your league (Piscotty his guy he sold me on and Franco a guy I’ve loved that I sold him on a bit), you’re likely selling too low to make it worth it. Hold tight. 6:36 Ewe Darvish: Where am I playing next year? 6:36 Paul Sporer: Probably LA 6:36 Big T: D. Lament or L. Castillo for 2018 & beyond and why? Thanks for the chat! 6:39 Paul Sporer: Castillo for me, but I do really like Lamet. He’s got more to work on than Castillo and both will likely have bumps in their first full season, but Castillo has 3 pitches, including a sexy changeup already while Lamet still needs to develop that third pitch 6:39 Stop Short: Semien or J.Polanco. Who makes the cut as my starting SS in my deep keeper league (OBP, roto). 6:42 Paul Sporer: Gotta go Semien. Polanco’s only got 2 months of success to build on right now. I will probably snag a share of Polanco as I don’t expect him to be super expensive, but I’m taking Semien over him 6:42 Mr. Manager: Can only keep two for my bench among Healy, Happ, Zimmer, Pham and Tim Anderson. Advice please. 6:45 Paul Sporer: i’m going to answer as if it’s 12 tm, standard 5×5, but if it’s a vastly different format, let me know. I’m going with Happ and Pham. Big time prospect with major upside and a late-20s breakout who has the talent to stay great, but health has eluded him until this year (well, at least from a DL standpoint, he still had some nagging injuries), but since it’s for bench I’ll take a shot on him logging at least another 400 PA 6:45 Dylan: How much faith do you have in Schoop repeating his great season? 6:47 Paul Sporer: I didn’t see a .293 coming this year, but I believed in the power so I wasn’t shocked at the 32 taters, espec. in light of the HR explosion. I think he can remain a 30-HR threat. He held his K% improvements from ’16 while slightly adding to his BB%. I still think there’s a potential 7-8% BB% in there and while that’s hardly elite, it’s markedly better than his 4% career. In short, I’m buying. Maybe tamp down the #s a tick after the big season because that’s just the prudent thing to do, but I don’t see a major fall off at all 6:47 John: Do you know why Carlos Correa stopped stealing bases this year? 3 attempts total in 2017! 6:53 Paul Sporer: SBs can be so sketchy for the guys who don’t do it for a living (those regularly logging ~25+ attempts/season) as we’ve seen with guys like Manny Machado when he went from 20 to 0 (and then back to 9 this year). I think it just isn’t a priority for someone like Correa so it went to the backburner or off the stove completely to push the analogy further. He’s not a burner, but he has the speed and acumen for a solid double-digit total each year (low to mid teens) if he wants, but it’s kinda up to him. In short, don’t bank on SBs from him, but I don’t think he’s automatically a single-digit guy now bc of this year 6:53 Futureman: Thoughts on Kevin Maitan? 6:55 Paul Sporer: Haven’t seen him play so it’s only what I’ve read, but he’s supposed to be a total monster. I think it’s 2020 at the earliest for him, but he checks all the pertinent boxes you want for a fantasy power stud and it should come at a good IF position even if he moves off SS 6:55 Bennybadatroto: Does Archer figure it out and go ACE next year? Or is this what he is? A great 2 that has amazing stuff but never quite closes the gap to stardom? 6:56 Paul Sporer: The stuff is there for more so I don’t rule it out, but I’m more in the “this is who he is” camp, an excellent #2 6:57 Paul Sporer: Still can front a fantasy rotation, mind you, but not quite that bona fide, unquestioned ace he looks like at times 6:57 Bob: Hey, 10 team, 6 keeper, 5×5, roto. I’ve been offered Trout (1st round keeper price) for Arenado (1st) & Blackmon (3rd). Keeper prices escalate 3 rounds each year so Blackmon is essentially controlled for one year since he would cost a 1st in 2019 and wouldn’t be kept over Trout/Arenado. If I make the deal I could keep Conforto (20th) or Albies (20th) in the last keeper spot. What do you think? 6:58 Paul Sporer: So it’s basically those 2 for Trout and a 20th round up-and-comer… I don’t know, I don’t think I do it. In a 10-team league, you’re trying to collect as much star power as possible and while Trout is still the #1, Arenado & Blackmon are both 1st round studs in their own right. I’m standing pat 6:59 Paul Sporer: OK y’all, it’s game 6 time! 7:00 Paul Sporer: Follow me on Twitter (sporer), Snapchat (psporer), and Twitch (psporer24) — I’ll be streaming after the game tonight playing some MLB The Show! I think I’m going to be chatting twice next week, too! (not filling in for Eno, he’ll be back — but just 2 of my own!!) 7:00 Paul Sporer: And Eno, Justin, and I will be podding Monday with a World Series preview and more 2018 draft battles 7:00 Paul Sporer: Peace… go JV!