Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – November 17th, 2016

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all! We’ll get started very shortly here

Paul Sporer: By the way, I’m going to start with a TV recommendation. If you’re not watching You’re the Worst, you’re really missing out on some excellent television. Season 3 finished last night and the first 2 are on Hulu.

Paul Sporer: All four questions in the queue are about Royals so I wonder if John just changed the name on the last 2 to throw me off 🙂

John: Your Opinion on Matt Strahm? Outlook as a starter? Outlook in the bullpen?

Paul Sporer: Freely admit I knew nothing of him prior to his MLB debut, but I was impressed with the lefty. Mid-90s heat and a quality four-pitch repertoire that will get a chance to start in ’17. I’ll be tossing a buck or two at him in deep leagues.

John: Could Danny Duffy have a sub 3.00 ERA, 180+ strikeouts this year if healthy

Paul Sporer: LOL, someone found the poop emoji

Paul Sporer: Health always a factor for SPs, but for Duffy his big thing is keeping the ball in the park. He went in waves with his HR allowance. As SP, he initially gave up a lot, then had a period where he looked like a frontliner bc he was stifling HRs, and finished by allowing too many and kinda sputtering into the finish line. It’s righties that get him, but I think it’s fixable. His breakout reminds me of Carlos Carrasco‘s.

Rob: Hunter Dozier’s value if he is the Royals full time DH/RF?

Paul Sporer: .260-20?

Nick: Could Mike Moustakas hit 30 home runs this year? Really looked on pace for that before the injury?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think 30 HR is doable for him, especially in this HR-heavy environment. I’m eyeing Moose on the cheap in ’17 drafts.

FGM: What are your thoughts on CJ Cron? I think he and Healy will put up similar numbers this year.

Paul Sporer: Not a bad comp at all. The 3B v. 1B favors Healy, of course, but I think we saw some real improvement from Cron that was stifled by the HBP injury

Choo Choo: As volatile closer are, which of these don’t end the season as their team’s closer: Giles, Dyson, Colome?

Paul Sporer: Dyson, just doesn’t dominate like the other 2

Sonny: “But why he starts the album off with that typical synth buzzsaw sound is beyond me, but what a sound it is, all gussied up and processed. I can’t figure out why he would do that. It’s like farting. It’s another dare — I dare you to like this. Very perverse.” Lou Reed. Loved this record

Paul Sporer: Hated my first spin of Yeezus. Just wasn’t open to it. By spin 3, I really started to enjoy it and it’s remained in rotation since release

forever it: In a dynasty league trade, would you rather have Quintana or Jake Lamb/Robbie Ray/Yohander Mendez?

Paul Sporer: I like Q, but that’s a nice return for him.

Eric: Hi Paul! Who do you like for ’17 in NL 5×5…$13 Baez (pos flexibility but maybe reduced playing time) or $16 Segura (a repeat may be more like 15 HR, 25 SB)? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: This is really tough for me. I wasn’t really in on either prior to ’16, but saw a lot from them to change my tune, especially Segura. I think I’ll take Segura atop the lineup in Arizona. Even if he slides back toward 12-14 HRs, it comes with a ton of SBs and I think he’ll still hit at least .280

Sonny: dude is a genius

Paul Sporer: My favorite musician

Toki: What kind of production do you see out of Bellinger next season? Is he going to make an appearance before August in the majors?

Minty: As a Tigers’ fan, what would you trade for Bellinger?

Paul Sporer: I think a Kinsler or JV deal could be headlined by Bellinger and obviously a superdeal with both will include him and much more. He’s still just 21 with all of 3 games at AAA so I’m not sure he quickly he reaches the majors, plus if he stays in LAD, he could be blocked off. But if he goes to DET, they might not be dying to start his clock. Love the power.

Sonny: If the Cubs got Bill Murray and Eddie Vedder is there a team positioned worse for their own WS posse than the Tigers? I for one will not get in line to watch Kid Rock and Ted Nugent spray champagne on each other in the clubhouse after game 7.

Paul Sporer: Haha, ya I’m all set on those two. I’ll take Eminem and Big Sean instead

Dumpster Fiers: I wasn’t fully onboard with You’re the Worst after the first couple episodes, but it has won me over. FX should have brought back Married.

Paul Sporer: Married was meh. I found YTW markedly better personally. I’d have probably get watching Married, but they made the right choice between the two

Paul Sporer: I’m also not married, so maybe it just didn’t resonate with me as much

Choo Choo: I’m going to assume SF signs one of the big closers and Strickland won’t get a shot, but what about Capps in SD? Any reason to hang onto Street?

Paul Sporer: Agreed on SF. I can see a healthy Capps getting a shot, but he’s no guarantee to be healthy off of TJS. Huston Street should open with the job in LAA, but Bedrosian is poised to take that gig

Ryan: Is Charlie Blackmon a top 6 OF next year?

Paul Sporer: Ya as long as he stays in Colorado. He’s been 3 and 4 the last two years

Ryan: Do you think Ian Desmond can come close to his numbers from last year?

Paul Sporer: I do. He had three 20-20 seasons before 2015 so honestly that’s the outlier at this point.

Carl : AJ REED. What’s in store for him in 2017?

Paul Sporer: He could get dealt and my guess is it would be a team that could give him a role and let him go a bit. I don’t think we should throw away alllll the hype built up because of 141 ugly PA. Solid sleeper.

Toki: I heard somewhere Bellinger was quick enough and had played in CF a few times. Is it possible he could end up a utility to start? Could they try giving him reps at 3b?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’ve heard he can hang in all 3 OFs and 1B which is encouraging. If moving around affords him regular PT, I can sign off on it, but you don’t want a 21 year old only playing 3-4 times a week as opposed to everyday in AAA.

baby bull : IS there improvement left for Starling Marte?

Paul Sporer: Maaayyyyybeee, but he’s about to be 28. His HR/FB was too high in ’15 and too low in ’16 so put him somewhere in between and call it 13-16 HR with 30+ SBs and a good batting average. Even if that’s “all” he is, it’s star level.

baby bull : Soler or Domingo Santana 2017?

Paul Sporer: I’m not fully quitting on Soler, but I prefer Santana at this point. A Soler trade would alter that a bit.

baby bull : What should I expect out of Neil Walker next year? More of the same with another DL Stint or 2 thrown in?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think that’s fair. Staying healthy isn’t his best attribute, but I buy the jump in power

Hank: Kanye West is terrible. Pablo is the most overrated album I’ve ever heard. Critics love it for some reason, but I can’t find a single person that thinks it’s even remotely decent.

Paul Sporer: Perhaps you exist in an echo chamber then because there are tons of people who really like it.

Paul Sporer: Of course, you needn’t like Kanye. Not everyone does, but to suggest no one like Pablo because YOU don’t know anyone who does is hilarious

baby bull : Tom Murphy the starting C in Colorado next year?

Paul Sporer: FAKE PLAYER!!!!!!!

Paul Sporer: (if you don’t listen to the pod, you won’t get that joke) … but yes I do and I quite like him as a late C in an ugly pool that dries up quickly

Snowflake: I don’t like Pablo either. Emo Kanye sucks. Give me cocky Kanye

Snowflake: And Drake still sucks too

Paul Sporer: 2 people! I guess it is universally hated after all.

baby bull : Kanye is dope, seeing him in Philly in December

Paul Sporer: Yes he is. The show was excellent.

Paul Sporer: Drake’s lit, too.

Guest: What do you think Mazara’s line looks like next year?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure it’s automatically better than ’16, but even a repeat at 22 in 650+ PA would be solid.

Paul Sporer: The fact that he COULD greatly improve is why you invest, though

baby bull : Does Willson Contreras catch the majority of the Cubs innings next year?

Paul Sporer: I think so, yes. And some OF time. Love his bat.

MeDeKe: FYI to Toki: Bellinger is left-handed thrower.

Paul Sporer: Ooh ya, good point. Only really focused on his hitting so forgot he was L/L

baby bull : Did Freddie Freeman just peak or does he another step up in him?

Paul Sporer: It’s probably peak, but doesn’t mean he can’t hold the peak another year or two. He’s REALLY good and quite underrated relative to that excellence

Hamist02: Same price for next year, you keep Cano or Sale?

Paul Sporer: Cano. Always lean hitter when all else is equal

baby bull : Has JP Crawford become an avg player with all the young SS talent? Doesnt seem like he has close to the pop of the Seager, Lindor, Correa, Story, Diaz, Villar, Turner etc

Paul Sporer: We gotta let him debut first! Remember, Lindor was seen as a glove-first, “better real life than fantasy” when coming up because the glove first was interpreted as glove ONLY by many. Crawford was just 21 years old and spent most of his season in AAA.

baby bull : Odubel Herrera or Marcell Ozuna 2017?

Paul Sporer: Herrera because the SBs are so valuable especially because they come with some punch. Ozuna has 30 HR upside, but I’ll take the combo bat

Mark: In 366 ABs, Kevin Kiermaier had 12 Hrs and 21SBs. If he can play a full season this year, what would his stats look like?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t extrapolate the power, but I think 15-30 is possible. I really liked him coming into this season and I don’t plan to jump off the train

Matt: Where do you see Chapman going? What moves are vital for the Yankees to make

Paul Sporer: I think the Yankees will be aggressive in trying to get Chapman back or one of Jansen or Melancon if they can’t get him. I don’t think there are moves they MUST do, but I could see ’em going for an SP in addition to a closer

Broseph: Thoughts on James paxton’s late-season surge heading into 2017?

Paul Sporer: Love the changes he made. Altered his mechanics which yielded both velocity AND control gains. He still can’t seem to avoid the DL. I’d only plan for 130-150 IP and go from there.

Bill: Which side of a trade would you rather have? Dahl + Daniel Norris or Gary Sanchez + Tyler Glasnow

Paul Sporer: Dahl and Norris

Maverik312: 12 tm dynasty that rosters 25 MLB and 20 MiLB
I’m loaded at OF and looking for SP.
Naquin for McCullers or Nola
Fair?

Paul Sporer: Either is fair, but gimme McCullers

Hank: Blake Snell breakout?

Paul Sporer: Possible, but unlikely. Growth isn’t always linear and he still has a legitimate walk rate to quell. The price makes it easy to invest even if the breakout doesn’t come through, though

baby bull : My dynasty OF is JBJ, JUP, and some guy named Andrew Benitendi, Im okay to cut Heyward or is he going to bounce back offensively, also defense counts

Paul Sporer: I don’t see Heyward as completely done, but I think you’re choosing the right three. Even with defense counting, I think I still lean Beni over Heyward

T: Dynasty league: Addison Russell or Xander Boegarts?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Russell guy, but Bogaerts has unquestionably been better thus far. I think if you have to choose right now, Bogy is the guy as Russell might still be a year away from fully materializing

Buff: Do both Lugo and Gsellman break 100 IP in 2017? Does either break 140?

Paul Sporer: I think both will get burn, but if all goes well, only one will push toward 140 IP

Paul Sporer: I prefer Lugo between the two

Snowflake: All I’m saying is I don’t want to hear about how a multimillionaire forgot to take his antidepressants. I want to hear about him popping champagne on a plane while getting some brain

Paul Sporer: Then don’t listen, but definitely move on

Paul Sporer: I’m sure whatever music you listen to is 100% true to their life and authentic af 🙂

Dan: Whats Yordano Venturas fantasy ceiling?

Paul Sporer: Probably a 3 at best. I just don’t see frontline upside here.

Toki: Josh bell or Ryon Healy for a corner IF position next season?

Paul Sporer: Healy

District Doubters: Buxton versus Matz — if offered straight-up, and coverage to replace either, which side would you take?

Paul Sporer: Buxton

Paul Sporer: Gonna have to wrap up here soon, y’all

forever it: Do you think Austin Hedges or Chance Sisco are viable catchers in fantasy next year?

Paul Sporer: Sisco more so, but I’m not sold on Hedges’ bat at all

Dan: Wade davis for jorge soler. Who says no at first?

Paul Sporer: KC might want a little more, but it’s a start for sure

TP for my Jung Ho: Do you wash your hands after every time you pee? Like… EVERY? Even if they’re only like 20-30 minutes apart? I don’t.

Paul Sporer: No, my junk is clean and I don’t pee on my hands

forever it: McCann just got traded to Houston

Paul Sporer: Well hot damn! http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/astros-acquire-brian-mccann.html

Dumpster Fiers: Gerrit Cole or Carlos Rodon in 2017?

Paul Sporer: Cole, but Rodon will be on a few of my teams.

Ray : Where would you rank Oh among NL closers? Think Roman Quinn starts year in Phillies OF? Quinn upside- 10 HR, 35+ SBs?

Paul Sporer: I haven’t done a ranking yet, but top 6 or 7 feels right off the top. Hard to really pin down AL v. NL w/2 superstars and a solid Melancon on the market

Anonymous: I sold the farm last year to get the rights to the best players I could. Wound up with a 3B logjam of Bryant, Arenado, and Machado. Do I have to sell one at the deadline next year (assuming Machado loses SS eligibility for 2018) or just use them inefficiently (Bryant in the OF)

Paul Sporer: I don’t think that’s inefficient. OF isn’t all that deep. 3B-SS-OF for the three is really good. Don’t start sweating 2018 before we even start ’17

Anonymous: I’m in a 20-team keep-4 league 10×10 that has Shutouts as a scoring category. Is there any remotely reliable way to find a Shutout on draft day (all the usual suspects will probably be keepered)

Paul Sporer: No, it’s REALLY difficult to project those

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, gotta roll!

Paul Sporer: Thanks for coming out and take care!