Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – May 13th, 2020

Transcript is available, thanks for coming out!!

1:50

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone Welcome to my weekly chat!

1:50

Paul Sporer: Sorry for the delayed start, was a little busy and had to push back a bit

1:51

Rubber Shoes: If there is an 80 game season, how do you think league’s should handle positional eligibility for 2021?

1:51

Paul Sporer: I think it makes sense to halve it

1:51

Chris: Are you in on Boyd, Tanaka or gallen this year?

1:51

Paul Sporer: All 3 to a degree. Really like Boyd and Gallen, don’t mind Tanaka at his price

1:52

Guest: Thoughts on Josh Lindblom 린드블럼 for 2020?

1:53

Paul Sporer: I’m a fan. His price has been so cheap that I don’t see why I wouldn’t take the gamble and try to spike a Miles Mikolas 2018. Hell, even a Mikolas 2019 isn’t that bad (4.16 ERA/1.22 WHIP) for sure a late round pick

1:54

Tommy: What are the chances that Kyle Tucker and his “40 Speed” steal more bases than Pache and his “65 Speed” in his first 1000 PA

1:55

Paul Sporer: While I believe Tucker’s speed is better than a 40, I still don’t put much chance on him beating Pache due more to team context over anything else

1:55

Chris: Is this the year for Dansby Swanson?

1:56

Paul Sporer: Certainly could be. He was off to a great start before his injury last year. There’s definitely a 25/15 upside over a full season

1:57

Ed: if there any sort of chance we see Adley Rutschman on an Orioles 20 man taxi squad?

1:59

Paul Sporer: There’s a smaaalllll chance, but I’m not sure he really has a path to get in the majors this year after being in A-ball last year. I think if he was getting a half season in AA/AAA, he could’ve made the majors at some point, but I’d be really surprised if he played w/the O’s this year

2:00

Chris: Will you be drafting a catcher early or late? And who would you be targeting?

2:01

Paul Sporer: Depends on 1 or 2 C leagues. In 1 C, I’m not averse to getting a higher end guy if the price is right, but I’ll likely live in the middle. In a 2 C, I usually get 2 decent guys somewhere in the mid tiers

2:01

G: Do you think Aquino will reach ADP levels near pre-Castellanos ? Still a crowded crop.

2:03

Paul Sporer: Because of an NL DH? I think he’d move up from his mid-300s ADP, but I don’t think he gets back into the early-200s/late-100s

2:03

Chris: Am I crazy to think Willey Adams should be drafted in all leagues?

2:04

Paul Sporer: No, not really. I’m a big fan of Adames and think he could be on the verge of a breakout. SS is super deep so he goes cheaply, but he’s at least a reserve consideration if not a solid MI/UT option

2:06

Jason: Are you bullish on Urquidy in dynasty leagues?

2:07

Paul Sporer: I am, yes. He’s on the short list of pitchers I was really interested to check out this year

2:11

Bob: Please rank Cesar Hernandez, profar, and Castro in an obp league. Thanks!

2:12

Paul Sporer: I’d go Hernandez, Castro, and then Profar. I really like Hernandez in Cleveland, one of their only good moves this offseason. He’s even better in OBP, of course, too.

2:12

Bob: Rich hill, Alex Wood, or Jon Gray in a QS league?

2:17

Paul Sporer: Hmm that’s tough. I think I’ll go Hill, Gray, Wood

2:17

J.D. Martin: I had a league mate tell me Albies was a bad season away from being Rougned Odor, can you slap some sense into him? Thanks

2:18

Paul Sporer: LOL, that just doesn’t make any sense. Albies’ plate skills are SOOO much better. He’s nowhere near becoming an Odor

2:18

MTC: How does a shortened season change your view on Chris Paddack? Do you think he’s able to go 6-7 innings more often, or still a 4-5 inning stud?

2:21

Paul Sporer: The shortened season doesn’t change my view much but I saw him becoming more of a 6 IP guy this year anyway.

2:21

Sutton: Alex Verdugo says he is 100% healthy.  Is he an OF3 in a 15 team league with 3 outfield and 1 utility spots?

2:24

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure he’s a top 45 OF, but add in another 15 UT and consider that some OF-elig guys will be used elsewhere and we’re definitely in Verdugo range. In short, I’d draft him in this league

2:26

AKA22: Do you feel Senzel or Kieboom will get close to a full season of ABs? Either strike you as a better bet this year? What about in keeper leagues for the future?

2:28

Paul Sporer: I think Senzel has a better chance for it right now and thus I’d prefer him. It’s pretty close in keeper, but I’m still leaning Senzel

2:28

Chucky: Speculating on a handful of late round Dynasty pitchers. Civale, Kim, Burnes, Cease and May. Thoughts on any of the aforementioned

2:31

Paul Sporer: I’m a huge Civale fan. He’s one of my breakout guys. I also like Cease a bit, too. I’m OK taking another shot on Burnes this year as he’s still quite talented. I’m not sure where May gets his chance, but the Dodgers always rotate guys. I like him long-term more than ’20.

2:31

Tim: Favorite league format?

2:31

Paul Sporer: 5×5 Roto, 12-15 teams

2:33

Guest: Do you back up Francona— would MJ have made the big leagues? Or how impressive is his performance after like 12 years of no baseball?

2:34

Paul Sporer: Haven’t watched that ep yet, but his performance was COMPLETELY overlooked and ridiculed when it was actually quite impressive. I made fun of it at the time because I didn’t know any better, but a few years ago as a more enlightened fan, I acknowledged just how impressive what MJ did was given the circumstances

2:35

Lernered: Are you concerned about Strasburg in dynasty formats? He is a top __ SP in dynasty?

2:37

Paul Sporer: Not necessarily more concerned than I am about EVERY arm in a dynasty. Top 15-20 in dynasty off the top of my head

2:37

Chris: Why don’t any ranking systems like Gregory polanco? Besides being injury prone what am I missing?

2:39

Paul Sporer: That’s such a big factor, though. I’ve been a huge Polanco backer throughout his career, but he’s also basically a league average hitter. Still 28 and capable of a big season if he can stay healthy, but I can understand rankings being down on him a bit and making him prove it

2:39

Yandy man can’t: Bearish or bullish on Yandy Diaz? Does he get pt, is he a top 15 3B option in fantasy for the next few years?

2:40

Paul Sporer: Bearish on top 15 at 3B. Tapped into a bit more power last year, but still gonna be platooned a bit and it’s not like he became a flyball guy.

2:40

Smoaking aces: Is Smoak viable in mixed leagues with the universal DH? If Mike Ford is my #2 1B, and I’m competing, is he an easy drop for Smoak?

2:40

Paul Sporer: Yes, easy drop to cop Smoak for Ford, I’m doing that for sure

2:40

Dill: Do you think Austin Adams has a shot at closing in Seattle ? The projections are crazy good…

2:43

Paul Sporer: Definitely a possibility. He misses bats like crazy so if he can limit walks at all, there’s some real upside

2:43

Brian: Hey Paul. Which mlb the show mode do you enjoy most? Having a hard time staying interested in any one form of play – RTTS, Diamond dynasty – I just feel like they get stale quickly. What’s your favorite mode and how do you sustain interest?

2:44

Paul Sporer: DD offers so much, but I bounce between Ranked Seasons, Events, and BR. I’ve really enjoyed March to October and Showdown this year, too, they’re computer modes but they’re challenging and give you stuff for your DD team so you’re improving the online squad at the same time

2:44

Chris: Should Mitch haniger get drafted and stashed or should he be on waivers till he proves he’s healthy?

2:44

Paul Sporer: Really depends on league size

2:44

Scott: Are there any pitchers that you’re valuing more now that it’s a shorter season e.g. service time players / coming back from injury?

2:45

Paul Sporer: Just the guys who are healthy that were slated to miss time if we had started back in March. Not trying to overrate other soft factors like players maybe not getting innings limits and such

2:45

Pat’s Bat: What is the chance that some players will voluntarily sit out the season with coronavirus concerns?  How should dynasty leagues handle those players?  Make extra non active roster spots?  Force owners to carry or cut dead weight?

2:46

Paul Sporer: I think we’ll see a few players do it. I’d be reluctant to punish the fantasy players in that case and I’d make accommodations for them with a taxi spot

2:47

Chucky: Is Mercado a poor mans LuRob? Or is that a vise versa?

2:48

Paul Sporer: Mercado’s the cheaper version so I much prefer him. I like LuBob and think he’s got some upside, but he’s being overdrafted IMO

2:48

AKA22: Looking for a late round power OF bat. Grichuk, K Calhoun, Mazara, B Anderson. You excited about any of them?

2:49

Paul Sporer: Pretty keen on Brian Anderson. Think he could be really solid this year, espec. w/their lineup improving and giving him some R/RBI upside. I’ve been a Maz fan in the past, but I’m no longer seeing major upside. Could finally pop 30, though (well a 30 HR pace since we’re only getting half a season)

2:50

Lorenzo: How big of a rise in R and RBI do you expect for NL hitters with the DH?  Should it now be one of the deciding factors if choosing between an AL or NL hitter, generally speaking?

2:50

Paul Sporer: Don’t ooooovvveerrrrate it, but give it some consideration and bump the guys a bit. It could definitely be a tiebreaker between two guys with the added value for the NL guy

2:52

Mark: Where would you slot DH only Ohtani in daily transaction league?

2:53

Paul Sporer: Top 150, still gonna deliver a lot of value with the bat

2:53

Jonah hill: Cespedes or Dom Smith more valuable if we get DH this year?

2:54

Paul Sporer: Well Cespedes if he’s healthy

2:55

Don Juan: Do you prefer FFAB leagues where you can only acquire plays via a weekly auction, or a free-for-all where you can grab any free player for free any night?

2:56

Paul Sporer: FAAB for sure. Free for all adds unnecessary volatility and just rewards ppl who are most available which isn’t really identifying fantasy skill. Maybe in a league of younger folks where the expectation is availability (maybe no one’s married and/or has kids), I can see it.

2:56

Smoaking aces: Flyer for last OF spot – Happ, Eaton or Cespedes for you?

2:56

Paul Sporer: Happ 10000%. Huge fan still and buying in on him again this year

2:59

Justin: Thoughts on W Calhoun and JD Davis this year?

2:59

Paul Sporer: They’re close enough that I’m just taking the cheaper of the two which has led to more Calhoun shares for me

2:59

Pepe Alazar: Any tips for someone struggling in RS on The Show? Can’t seem to carry over success in offline modes to online.

3:00

Paul Sporer: What is your biggest struggle? Hitting or pitching? If it’s hitting, I generally recommend being more patient. I usually find myself struggling when I’m taking way too many 1-3 pitch ABs. Chat is ending soon, but hit me up on Twitter or Twitch if you have more Qs

3:00

Don Juan: What is the argument for the NL turning to a DH this season?  I don’t understand what a shortened season has to do with it.

3:02

Paul Sporer: Pitchers batting remains remarkably dumb, but perhaps the league has realized just how dumb it is and how that added risk to pitchers makes absolutely no sense. Plus, we’ve been angling toward NL DH for a bit now and this is a good trial period to where it could (and should) stick. Pitchers batting doesn’t add the strategy that NL purists suggest, they’re godawful hitters, and it just makes no sense to have different rules in each league

3:02

John: Paul,  r.e. Civale. Are you bullish because of the Indians success with those kind of pitchers in general or just his skills? I have him and can keep him 3 years in a league, the price isn’t bad but I was thinking of tossing him back.

3:03

Paul Sporer: Both tbh. I like his track record and his depth of arsenal. Add in CLE’s success developing pitching and it makes me even more excited about him

3:03

Alexander: Do you like how the Phillies look going into 2020?  I’m just not feeling it looking at their depth chart/projected lineup.  I’m avoiding them for the most part.

3:03

Paul Sporer: I do not. Their pitching outside of a few guys is tough

3:03

Guest: is wander franco as far clear of the field in fantasy as he is reality when considering prospects?

3:04

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so. Even his SS elig. doesn’t add that much fantasy wise given the depth of the position. So ya he’s the #1 prospect, but not by leaps & bounds in fantasy IMO

3:05

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer).

I’ll be streaming my participation in a 1999 Redraft league tonight on Twitch plus some MLB The Show after that and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!

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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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TheBabbo
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Member
TheBabbo

@ Don Juan 3:00 – Under the proposed, shortened schedule for 2020, AL teams would play close to 20 percent of their games in NL parks – three times as many as the 6 percent they would in a normal season. It’s not realistic for them to give up the DH for that big a chunk of their schedule.

TheBabbo
Member
Member
TheBabbo

And by the same token, NL teams would be using the DH in 20 percent of their games anyway.