Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – May 10th, 2019

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, have to run a tight 30 minutes today because of the podcast schedule, but let’s talk some baseball!

Jeff: Paul – I read Nick’s take on Musgrove’s awful night last night. How do you feel about some recent poor starts?

Paul Sporer: It’s funny this is the first Q… today’s fireside is about Musgrove (& Darvish)

RK: Will Detroit call up Casey Mize anytime soon?

Paul Sporer: Maaaaybe in the summer, but not this month or anything, IMO

CT: Hey Paul, thanks as always for everything. A seemingly easy question, but kinda confounding at the same time — pick two for next week: Strasburg @ Cubs, Castillo @ Cubs, or Montas @ Tigers

Paul Sporer: C’mon now….

Paul Sporer: Don’t overthink things. There is no world where Montas even in a favorable matchup goes over Stras or Castillo

Tucker: Are Mikes Minor and Soroka pitchers you keep in a 12-team league, or would you drop one or both for a solid streamer?

Paul Sporer: I’d keep both right now

Dave: How far up your rankings does Giolito slide?

Paul Sporer: He’s currrently 91st in SPs rankings (I update ’em through the month then post). I don’t want overreact

Scott TINSTAAPP: ROS you prefer Anibal Sanchez or Merrill Kelly?

Paul Sporer: I think Kelly is slightly here right now, but they’re about 10 spots about, so play the schedules

Also Paul: Kyle Gibson, FA in my league. (12 tm mixed) Gotta pick him up right?! Putting up good numbers and free lawn care…

Paul Sporer: The lawn care puts it over the top! But ya, scoop him for a 2-step next week

Dave: Hi what are your thoughts on Dylan Bundy as a back-end starter in an AL only league – his SwStrike rate has been higher this year. Thanks.

Paul Sporer: Ehhh…. I like the SwStr, but after a start @CLE, he’s got outings v. NYY and @COL … be very careful

Cory: I have an owner that’s been chasing me for years for Nick Castellanos in a 14 team, 40 man roster keeper league.  Today’s offer: Jose Martinez and Domingo German for Casty.  Would you take that one?

Paul Sporer: That totally works, especially if you need pitching

rex: is their legitimacy to early season chris bassitt?

Paul Sporer: Nearly 2x in SwStr and 7 pt boost in Chase rate gives the K rate some heat. The ERA/WHIP obviously won’t stay *that* low, but I think there’s something to keep an eye on here

Matt: Need some 1b help. My Hunter Renfroe ($8) or his Hunter Dozier ($4) in FGPts? Projections seem to favor Renfroe but Statcast loves Dozier.

Paul Sporer: I’d definitely do this. Big fan of Dozier and he’s half price

Timmy: Whats the deal with LaStella? Has he taken a step forward or is this just smoke and mirrors?

Paul Sporer: There’s at least a little something here. He’s smacking the ball harder than ever and has upped his flyball rate by 16 pts. He’s also walking 2x as much as he’s striking out so he’s seeing the ball well. He didn’t completely come by these HRs outta nowhere. The 27% HR/FB rate will return back to Earth eventually, I think we could get another 10-12 HR over the balance of the season, a far cry from his pace, but still pretty substantial for Tommy La Stella

KD: Optimistic, pessimistic or meh about Kipnis ROS?

Paul Sporer: Incredibly meh

Jason: Traded Paddack for Dee Gordon. Ugh.

Paul Sporer: These HBPs are getting so frustrating this year

Bones: Hey Paul – Josh Bell is sure playing like a top 5-7 Dynasty 1B, how sold are you on his chances to stick there?

Paul Sporer: Justin and I discussed him on yesterday’s pod – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-684-sur… — we’re fans and think his pop has legitimacy

Scott TINSTAAPP: Shed Long worth a spec in 12 or 15 teamers?

Paul Sporer: 15 sure, but I’m not sure about 12s

Rob: rank these guys please: Dwight Smith Jr, Ramon Laureano, and Jorge Soler? And where in comparison to a pitcher like Marco Gonzales? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I think you’ve ranked the OFs as I see think. Gonzales would sneak in between Smith & Laureano for me

Darren: What are your thoughts on Tyler Mahle? He’s changed his pitches and FIP/xFIP/SIERA seem to suggest good things.

Paul Sporer: Love that he’s cut his walk rate in half. He’s keep the ball down more, which is likely helping the HR rate improvement. I’m not sure I see a path for the K rate to hold, but I’d take a 21-22% K rate with this walk rate and improved HR rate. Solid streamer.

AF: Is Verdugo 10 team viable? What does he have to do to get Roberts to start him vs LHP? Roberts’ platooning seems to be becoming dogmatic. Verdugo has a 198 wrc+ vs LHP in ’19 and 130 wrc+ vs LHP for career

Paul Sporer: Dig Verdugo, but he’s probably fringe in a 10-teamer as a strong side platoon guy. Agree on the general pt re: Roberts’ platooning (particularly with Muncy), but for Verdugo’s #s you’re essentially double-counting this year bc it carries alllll the weight in that career figure.

He has an 1.127 OPS thanks to a .417 BABIP in 32 PA, which is 57% of the sample. He did nothing in useless samples of 19 and 5 PA the last 2 seasons. I do get frustrated seeing young hitters auto-platooned bc they’ll never get better v. LHP if they never get to regularly face them, but Roberts is also trying to win games and has a deep team.

If it’s 5 OF for the 10 teamer, you can reserve him or maybe even make him your 5th. But if it’s 3 OF, you might just try to spot him on weeks with 0-1 lefties on the slate.

Kevin: Hey Paul, are you believing in Bumgarner’s turnaround? Would you trade McCutchen for him?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think Bumgarner is perfectly solid, particularly with that home park. I can get that deal done if I need SP

A-A-Ron: When do Vlad Jr’s fly balls get called up from Triple A?

Paul Sporer: When he starts waiting for pitchers to come back in the zone. The opposition is currently terrified of him and throwing just 31% of the pitches in the zone

Michael: Odorizzi worth a stream against your Tigers tonight?

Paul Sporer: Oh, of course. He also gets LAA, LAA, and CWS after this weekend’s start

vcoheda: any hope for jackie bradley or lost cause.

Paul Sporer: I’m moving on just about everywhere. Maybe holding on in AL Only

John Means: Am I blossoming into a top 100 pitcher? What’s my ceiling?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think that’s about right. I still have him as a Deep Spot Start, but I could see him moving into the SSS tier (maybe around the 80-91 range)

Dave: IIRC, you were high on Gregory Polanco heading into last year… he’s looked pretty good since coming off the IL. What are you expecting?

Paul Sporer: Still fully into him!

Al Gone Quinn: Rich Hill hasn’t looked good. Hold or Cut in 15 team?

Paul Sporer: Gotta hang on IMO. Only a 4.20 ERA, think he’ll be fine.

KD: Should I hold on to Beef in an AL league (1 catcher, OBP) or look for a replacement?

Paul Sporer: I’m searching for a replacement

Kdog: Hey Paul. Dig your writing….when to give up on a guy when there is NO ONE on waivers? Ex: Trav Shaw, Freeland

Paul Sporer: If there’s nothing to get on the wire, it seems like you gotta keep riding it out

Vincent Vega: Will Honeywell be 12 tm rosterable when he’s back?

Paul Sporer: Unlikely to be this year. I don’t mess with TJ returners in the year they’re back

5,000 Mile(y)s: Wade Miley moving up your ranks? Still no K’s, but is the soft contact legit?

Paul Sporer: Eh, he’s staying in the SSS tier. I have him 85 and that tier starts at 67… think I’m going to leave him around where he’s at

Pine Needles: Your boy Woodruff putting it together. What’s his ROS ERA and K/9 look like?

Paul Sporer: 3.69, 10.5+

Jay Bruce is not afraid: Will D-backs let Duplantier start at some point soon?

Paul Sporer: I hope! But I think he might be worth rostering even as a super-RP

Webster: Is it almost time to give up on Jake Bauers?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league type… always include league context, y’all!

99: Need to cut one:  Soler or Winker.  Winker’s playing time against lefties is worrying me.

Paul Sporer: Ya he’s platooned, but he’s so good v righties that I’m sticking Winker

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, apologies for the supertight chat. I couldn’t sleep at all last night and barely got a few hours this morning so I had to squeeze this in ahead of the Fireside Chat. I promise y’all a marathon chat VERY soon!

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Snapchat (psporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a great weekend!