Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – March 30th, 2018

Paul Sporer: Hello!! We finally have baseball!!!!!!!

Paul Sporer: OK, now onto the questions…

Paul Sporer: BTW, include context with your questions or they might be useless (how many teams, format)

Hannah Hochevar: So why is it that Cleveland doesn’t make the playoffs?

Paul Sporer: The bad fastballs of virtually their entire staff, a lame OF, and lack of depth

Tiger: Watching Zimmerman today. 8 Ks, 1 BB. Only two extra-base hits. The 4 ER aren’t pretty, but a new pitch (2 seamer). Any thoughts? Have any looks at him?

Paul Sporer: I’ve been suggesting we don’t write him off until we see him healthy and how that goes. Still think there’s something in the tank. Monitoring him for sure

Jose Martinez: Jose Martinez.

Jose Martinez: Jose Martinez.  End of chat.  Goodbye.

Jerj Clooners: I know you don’t drink, but please create an MLB The Show drinking game for me to play with some friends tonight

Paul Sporer: Shot or shotgun a beer every time I have a comically bad baserunning error… but be careful bc you’re gonna be tanked lol

Paul Sporer: (also be 21+ if drinking #dadsporer)

jack: hicks…..

Paul Sporer: So sad and yet hardly unexpected given his history… for those unaware, Aaron Hicks is on the DL with a rib injury

Hannah Hochevar: Was really fun to listen to you and Eno again. Old times! Don’t tell Justin I said so. He’s nice too.

Paul Sporer: Haha, he’s gonna read this and have a single tear drip down his face

Jordan: What % of FAAB would you spend on Holland?

Paul Sporer: Depends how badly you need saves.

Jordan: Baseball is officially back, I am sitting on my couch watching 9 innings of 2 bad teams play. And I love it

Paul Sporer: I absolutely love it. Obviously it’s my favorite team right now, but give me Padres/Rays on a Tuesday in May over just about any non-baseball sporting event

Matt W.: Is Conforto going to mash, or will his shoulder slow him down? Drop Duvall for him?

Paul Sporer: He’s certainly working his way back nicely, but I’m still a little skeptical. Depends how many reserves if you can’t DL Conforto (which I’d assume you can’t or he’d be gone?)

Creepy: Tim Anderson gonna be one this year’s biggest breakout stories?

Paul Sporer: Not if he doesn’t alter that approach some. It’s SO bad right now. Walks aren’t everything, but a 27% K/2% BB combo just can’t work

Big Joey: JA Happ wasn’t half bad vs the big bad Yankees, think he could be in store for a top 50 SP season?

Paul Sporer: Ya for sure. I ranked him 64th but he was firmly part of the glob so you could reasonably have taken him as high as SP45

tb.25: Odds Stanton continues this pace and hits 324 home runs?

Paul Sporer: 94%

zurzles: Are there any split-based streaming opportunities to look out for? KC vs LHP and Det vs RHP both look pretty dreadful

Paul Sporer: There will be, but they usually take some time to develop. Of course if you spot em early, you get the jump before things adjust (for example DraftKings prices changing, etc…)

Chris: should i trade the 6th, 67th, and 127th picks for the 1st pick (Trout) or should i try to get another pick back?

Paul Sporer: Not sure the difference between Trout and whomever you get at 6 is worth the two extra players

Nels: Okay to purge end-of-bench chaffe like T. Mancini and B. Zimmer in shallow 10-team to churn my roster?

Paul Sporer: Yes, you can’t get precious about those guys in that format. You’re going to make bad moves churning, but don’t let that dissuade you from it… it’s a numbers game.

Paul Sporer: make SOME bad moves*

tb.25: Kershaw’s velo was down plus he got hit around (8 hits in 5 innings). Worry?

Paul Sporer: Nah

Chris: Rank Betts, Harper, Stanton this season

Paul Sporer: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/march-composite-rankings-outfield/

Huaneeto: Dynasty league, would you trade Greg Holland and Amir Garret for Eddie Rosario?  I have Osuna, Hand, Greene and Nate Jones for saves. But I am afraid that by mid-season Greene and Jones may be out of the closer role, maybe traded to set-up somewhere else.

Paul Sporer: That’s a fair concern re: Greene/Jones, but you may also have a closer in another bullpen as you’ll remain active on the wire so I wouldn’t let that be the hindrance to the deal. If you need a bat like Rosario, proceed

Big Joey: Think Hanley could have a big season? .290 30 100?

Paul Sporer: All about health with him, the talent is there

Jordan: Didn’t add context to my Holland question, 12 team. Boxberger just went for 20% of a teams FAAB, if that means anything

Paul Sporer: Ya I think the Boxy bid is a good guide. Holland has more heat in the market so I’d say 27%-30% is probably needed

Hannah Hochevar: Odorizzi also seemed to be working with a new pitch mix with his new squad. Any interest in him these days?

Paul Sporer: Always have a soft spot for Odorizzi. Keeping the ball in the yard more often could spur a very nice season

Dan: Is Gregerson an automatic drop in all non-holds leagues now that Holland has entered the fray?

Paul Sporer: Given that he’s hurt and Leone had leap-frogged him, I think that’s a safe cut

Big Tuna : I used FAAB on Dyson because the Giants have always bypassed Strickland (dammit!). Do I just drop Dyson in a 12 tm?

Paul Sporer: I was wondering if they’d skip him, too! Maybe ride out the weekend, but ya then you can chop him as I definitely think Strick can run with it

Lars: I don’t see Melancon coming back this year, making Stickland a pretty legit pickup.  Agree?

Paul Sporer: Yes, especially if you’re bearish on Melancon (which is understandable with the health)

Big Tuna : You holding Sal Perez on the DL in 12 tm leagues? League only has 2 spots so I’m already maxed out w him, Brantley and Gohara.

Paul Sporer: Think Salvy has to take precedent over one of those guys, your choice of which

Linus: Keone Kela legit enough to keep the gig?

Paul Sporer: I love Kela. I was hoping he’d get the role so I’m a big fan

Huaneeto: 14 team league, Dynasty (7×7), would you trade Greg Holland and Amir Garret for Eddie Rosario? I have Osuna, Hand, Shane Greene and Nate Jones for saves. Afraid Jones and Greene may be traded away to be set-up men elsewhere.

Paul Sporer: Damn, now I’m mad I answered your question.

Paul Sporer: DON’T REPEAT QUESTIONS!!!

Paul Sporer: There are a lot of questions in queue, I move as quickly as I can do. Repeating just clutters things.

Matt W.: Expectations for my waiver pickups Matz and Flaherty?

Paul Sporer: Matz needs to find some health and miss some bats. Flaherty misses bats and could force a tough decision for StL

Pauly: H2H points with -1 for Ks, screwed myself at C, Chirinos or Ianetta? Chirinos hung me with the golden sombrero yesterday with -4. Will Ianetta play enough?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think Iannetta with just face lefties so I think I prefer him to Chirinos

Chris: Luis Severino or Carlos Carrasco in a standard ESPN league?

Paul Sporer: Sevvy

Jerj Clooners: What round pick would you take Gallo at in a 12 team OBP?

Paul Sporer: 5th?

Marc: How big of an extra piece should I have to add to Willy Contreras to land Gary Sanchez in return?  10-team redraft.

Paul Sporer: Better question for the person with Sanchez because it really depends what they want

First Man on the Sun: Why hasn’t there been a Street Fighter/MLB crossover game a la Marvel vs Capcom. You could call it Base Brawl.

Paul Sporer: Love it

Ozzie.: Albies.

In the cut boi.

Paul Sporer: Albies stays in the cut

The Old Buccaneer: Would you trade Luis Severino for Anthony Rendon?

Paul Sporer: It’s fair in most formats

Tony B: As someone who’s played a lot of Road to the Show but never much of Diamond Dynasty, any advice for how to make the switch to DD so that it feels less overwhelming or more fun?

Paul Sporer: Understand the overwhelming feeling. I get it too with SOOOO much. Just jump in with Conquest. You’re building your team, but you’re playing the computer and getting used to things. Then you can dabble in some Battle Royale (3-inning games, try to win 12 before you lose 2 and get card rewards at 3, 6, 9, and 12 wins… bonus if you go 12-0) to try out online play. Come check out the stream some night if you can twitch.tv/psporer24 and we’ll answer any questions you’ve got!

Big Tuna : T. Beckham worth rostering in a 12 tm OPS as bench versatility or are there other guys around that level you’d prefer?

Paul Sporer: Would have to know who’s available, but I dig Beckham and want to give him a shot to show late last year was real

Gorky: Any optimism for Danny Salazar this season?

Paul Sporer: It’s health for him so it’s hard to be super optimistic until we see him throwing

lmb326: need your advice: NL-only, 11 team keepers.  Trade Arrieta (who’s contract expires this season) for Flaherty whom I could have for $10 for the next 3 seasons? I don’t expect to contend this year and look at it as more of a building block to 2019.  Just not sure how much value to put in Flaherty or conversely how much I should be able to get back for Arrieta.  Thanks

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m just not sure Flaherty at $10 is a game changing keeper. I mean, he could develop into one, but if I’d rebuilding I’d rather get a young, cheap bat. Obviously doesn’t have to be a superstar since it’s Arrieta, but you can find a starting bat I’d think

seth: Garrett or Mahle as a better upside play? or neither?

Paul Sporer: Dig both, drafted Mahle in a couple lgs and added Garrett via waivers in one. So I’d say I favor Mahle right now

Detroit: Miggy back?

Paul Sporer: If he’s healthy. His skills are unquestioned

Gelby: Paul, what is it like being a Tigers fan?  Give us all the gore…

Paul Sporer: I mean, we did just finish essentially a decade of contention. Could close out 06 or 12 World Series which is definitely a bummer bc it really felt like we had some WS winners in those years, but I’m not worried about the rebuild

Small Sample Steve: Trout 0-6 clearly on the decline. Trade him for Matt Davidson?

Paul Sporer: If you can even get Davidson… must be a newb league

Erik: I got more shares of Garrett Richards than any other player this season, with Brad Hand, Brandon Morrow, and Blake Snell close behind. Will I have a good season this year?

Paul Sporer: I hope so! I love G Rich and have several shares, too

Pauly: H2H points with -1 for Ks, who do you like better as a DH – Travis Shaw or Yonder? My brain says Shaw, my heart says Yonder in that lineup.

Paul Sporer: I like Shaw. Yonder is good, but Shaw is a cut better

Benjamin: I have Jose martinez, Kingery, and Cesar Hernandez on my bench. Matt Davidson is on waivers. Do I drop any of those for him?

Paul Sporer: Nah. You already missed 3 HR and while I can def see 30, it’s coming with a .225 AVG

KB: How concerned are you with Josh Don’s “dead arm.” I’m not feeling great after watching him roll it to first

Paul Sporer: Pitchers go through dead arm at some point in every season and if it’s the same kinda thing for Donaldson, I can see him working through it. Was Zimmerman declared to have dead arm when he was toast? Could be the Zimmerman’ing of JD

scioscia: 13tm OBP: Puig and Dejong for Ozzie and Lynn. is this close?

Paul Sporer: Yes it is. Gimme Albies!

Edwin Enca-nar-cion: Have you practiced pronouncing my name?

Paul Sporer: I don’t have any issues with it

Paul Sporer: Gregory Polanco in the cut goin 2-for-3 w/an SB and 2 R

Clint: How do you feel about Ian Desmond this year? Accidentally drafted him in a league, and now I’m worried he’ll lose playing time

Paul Sporer: If he doesn’t perform, yes, but I think he’ll get a real chance to succeed out front

KB: Could Jose Martinez be a top 30 OF bat with regular playing time?

Paul Sporer: Ya his hitting prowess is pretty substantial https://www.mlb.com/news/jose-martinez-has-earned-playing-time-in-2018…

KB: Jordan Montgomery over/under 3.85 era 1.25 whip

Paul Sporer: Under!

Allen: I’m in a 12tm H2H keep forever with the regular 5×5 plus OPS and TB on the offense side. Would you rather have Trea Turner or Arenado?

Paul Sporer: Going Arenado there

Josh’s brother Bill: How likely is it that my brother is the closer for the Brewers by April?

Paul Sporer: LOL, I’d say 20% chance Josh Hader is closing in April

Paul Sporer: Liked your new show Barry on HBO, Bill

Erik: Would you trade Roberto Osuna for Joey Gallo? Would you do it if you’re starting Jeimer Candelario and Maikel Franco at third base and corner and have four closers now that Boxerberger won the job?

Paul Sporer: Yes that works for me

Rob: Is Hicks droppable in a 10-team, 5 OF standard 5×5 roto league?

Paul Sporer: If you have no DL spots, yes 🙁 Obliques messed with Hicks last yr, too, I don’t like this at all

Jeimer Candelario: Can I bat at least .280 with my good OBP?

Paul Sporer: Ya, in a breakout season scenario

Poor Man’s Sporer: Predict Luis Castillo’s line against the Nats tomorrow.

Paul Sporer: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER (2 HR to Bryce Harper), 0 BB, 9 K

Eggs in one basket: How long will I have to follow the Brewers twitter account to know if Santana and Braun are starting?

Paul Sporer: For like 180 more days

Taylor: H2H should I drop any of McMahon, kingery, or j Martinez for grandal since I’ve been going no catcher?

Paul Sporer: Ya, you can’t go catcher-less. All three have upside, so you can just pick based on where you’re strongest at their respective positions

Benjamin: Where does Acuna finish among the rest of the Braves in terms of WAR

Paul Sporer: 2nd to Albies

Fredrick: Pham had a rough spring training and didnt look right  to my eye when he went 0-4 with 3Ks yesterday. Should people be worried?

Paul Sporer: A little, yes, bc every time he struggles, it seems to be vision-related: https://www.mlb.com/news/qa-with-cardinals-tommy-pham/c-270122766

OddBall Herrera: Taken along with last year’s struggles, just how short of a leash should we have on Lester (12 team)? Million dollar question is at what point is this not SSS, but actually a continuation of 2017’s performance

Paul Sporer: I wanted no piece of him this year. Just felt like a hot potato that I didn’t want to be left holding when the music stopped. Not sure he’s toast bc of 1 gm, but velo was down again and I just don’t see SP2 upside anymore

Pads Squad: Addison Reed will be closing by?

Paul Sporer: April 29th

Hans: Worried about Trea hitting 6th today?

Paul Sporer: Nah

Matt Klentak: Kapler is sitting Alfaro again… is Andrew Knapp going to get more starts than Alfaro?

Paul Sporer: Alfaro does have a monstrously bad approach so there is that

chewbacca: think deshields has a chance to do what villar did two years ago?

Paul Sporer: From 2017: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/paul-sporers-bold-predictions/

Steve: Speaking of your boy Albies, what say you of Verlander/Kipnis for Albies and McCullers?  I’d be able to keep Albies next season and beyond.  Thanks, Paul.

Paul Sporer: Ya that’s fair

Gregory Polanco: Quit me.

Paul Sporer: No chance

Miggy: I’m back. You all will regret not buying low on me!

Paul Sporer: Not me, I have multiple shares!

Jeorge: If you had to pick one fantasy player based solely on his name, who would it be?

Paul Sporer: Brooks Pounders

Estuve: What will you be looking for from greinke in his start?

Paul Sporer: Command. It’s always more important than his velo

Gear : Be honest with me here, is it wrong that I was in on Aaron Sanchez but not Johnny Cueto?

Paul Sporer: Not necessarily “wrong”, but ya I was buying back on both

Question:: Should I start Aaron Sanchez tonight vs NYY? I’m leaning heavily towards no, but part of me feels like (ottoneu, SABR points) what’s the harm this early in the year?

Paul Sporer: I’m starting him in my leagues

Jorge Soler: am I still interesting enough for an end of the bench roster spot?

Paul Sporer: Ya in most formats

seth: how excited are you for Castillo vs Stras tomorrow?

Paul Sporer: Incredibly

Guest: what FAAB percentage would you spend on Albies? (14 team league)

Paul Sporer: 60%+

Slamboni: 10 team roto, i paid up for Dominic Leone because I don’t have many closers, is trading Gregory Polanco for Greg Holland an overpay?

Paul Sporer: A little, espec. bc I love Polanco, but needs take priority and you gotta pay a little over

Injury God: Which pre-season injury upset you the most from a fantasy perspective? I’m going with any Honeywell. I had such high hopes …

Paul Sporer: Yes I was SUPER high on Honeywell. In fact, both of my favorite pitching prospects are already done – Puk, too

Jordan: I have seen these “most popular clips from MLB.com” no less than 100 times each. They need some new clips in their rotation so I don’t see Austin Jackson robbing Hanley for the 101st time

Paul Sporer: loooool, a tradition unlike any other

Barry B: Obviously, Ty Blach is better than Clayton Kershaw, but is he worth a shot in a 15-teamer?

Paul Sporer: LOL, he does really come through v. Kersh. The Ks are still painfully low, but if you don’t have an inning limit (which essentially makes it K9) then I don’t mind the gamble

Gregory Polanco: I’m going to let you all down again. I promise.

Gregory Polanco: Did you see that double? I’m daddy AF

Rich: What do you think of Jakob Junis?  Great slider, mediocre fastball, bad team.  Is he worth rostering in a 12 team mixed H2H league?

Paul Sporer: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/perusing-the-fours-and-fives/

Joey Lucchesi: Do you have any general thoughts about me?

Paul Sporer: I didn’t know about you until last night so let’s defer to Eric: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/what-to-expect-from-the-pa…

Sucrets Mahoney: Anybody pitchers on the Oakland staff worth rostering in 12 team leagues?

Paul Sporer: Manaea

Jason: How worried are you about Kapler limiting his pitchers innings given what he did to Nola?

Paul Sporer: It’s one game

Detroit: Thoughts on the DH. Should NL adopt or should the AL drop?

Paul Sporer: NL should adopt. Can’t imagine why anyone wants to watch SPs bat

Rich: Paul any chance Fangraphs leaderboard will include average exit velocity, launch angle, spin rates anytime soon?

Paul Sporer: Hmm, I’ll ask over the weekend

BC: Speculating for saves, Strop or Minter?

Paul Sporer: I <3 Minter

Guest: Do you think David Price can return to his former self?

Paul Sporer: I do, I’ve been buying

Pat G: Starting Snell against Boston or Cueto at the Dodgers?

Paul Sporer: Starting both in most formats

Moose tacos: buy low on honey/puk dynasty or nah

Paul Sporer: One, I wouldn’t stack up TJ arms

Gear: You and eno still lovin josh bell or has that cooled?

Paul Sporer: I think we’re both still strong on him. Quality bat

Paul Sporer: OK yall, just an hour today! Gotta record the podcast soon. I’ll be back next week. You can follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Snapchat (psporer), and Twitch (psporer24) where I stream MLB The Show 18 and answer questions much like the ones here. I’ll be live around 9-930 CT tonight if you want to come check it out: https://www.twitch.tv/psporer24

Paul Sporer: Have a good one and enjoy the games!!!