Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – March 1st, 2019

Paul Sporer: We’ve made it to March meaning that draft season is about reach full throat and regular season baseball is soooo close! Let’s do this!

Foolish Baseball: Someone asked me for thoughts on Josh Donaldson. I had none. Thoughts on Josh Donaldson?

Paul Sporer: With health, he’s going to be a stud again, IMO. Not necessarily MVP-level, but damn close

Steve: Who you taking at 3 after trout and betts?

Paul Sporer: Usually Arenado, but it’s a cluster of him, JD, Ramirez, & Turner that I consider there

Guest: Glasnow’s velocity jump causing you to think about moving him up from early February rankings?

Paul Sporer: Probably not. Velo isn’t his issue.

asking for a friend: If you had the first pick in an 12 team dynasty league and the top 140 or so season-long fantasy players and the top 5 prospects were off the board, would you take Adell?

Paul Sporer: Without knowing ANYONE else who is available, I’ll say sure. He’s a fantastic prospect

Bryan: I have Mondesi, Peraza, and K. Marte to fill my SS and MI spots. Would you advise trying to capitalize on the Mondesi hype now and see what I can get? 12 team league uses AVG and OPS.

Paul Sporer: I’d definitely see what’s out there

Matt: Which group of keepers would you prefer in this 12 team snake draft – Option A – Soto (10th), Buehler (10th), Flaherty (20th).    Or option B- Judge (17th), Muncy (10th). Contemplating making this trade…(keepers move up 2 rounds every year)

Paul Sporer: Let’s be clear, there isn’t a *wrong* answer here, these are both fantastic options. I’m going with Judge/Muncy, though. Gimme 2 premium hitters!

Yants : Matt Strahm and Zach Eflin. Both in the 320 ADP range. Out of 100 simulated seasons, who contributes more in 5×5? Who is the better bet to be decent?

Paul Sporer: I’ve become a big Strahm believer doing a bigger deep dive after discussing him with Nick. I’ve never been super keen on Eflin and while I acknowledge his improvements, I think Strahm is better

Russell Archer: In a Keep 3 league with QS instead of wins, how would you rank order these SPs and (Draft round kept): Nola (13), Taillon (17), Paxton (7), Corbin (23), Buehler (25)?

Paul Sporer: Nola, Buehler, Taillon, Corbin, Paxton

Russell Archer: What position group is surprising you with its depth/shallowness in mock drafts as you experience them?

Paul Sporer: I’m finding that 1B isn’t as shallow as I’d originally thought. It doesn’t have as much locked in superstars, but I like a lot of the guys in my 3-30 range: http://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2019-first-base-rankings/

Kev: Hey Paul! Missed you and baseball – keeper question – JDM ($44) or Votto ($21)?

Paul Sporer: Need more context. How many teams, what stats?

Lyle: Do you think Muncy will get enough PT to be my starting 2B?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I do.

John: If Senzel becomes everyday centerfielder for the Reds, where does he rank on your prospect list for 2019?

Paul Sporer: Top 5-Top 5-Top 5-Top 5-Top 5-Top 5-Top 5-Top 5

Paul Sporer: (reference: )

Ol fan: The Starting Pitching Guide used to list guys who had the Sporer Trifecto.  Who are the 2019 guys in this category?

Paul Sporer: Ooh I should update and bring it back. I believe the original had GB% included which I’ve since learned isn’t some automatic holy grail. It can still be valuable, but I held it in too high esteem back in the day

Andrew: Keep 3 per year, keepers go up by $5 per year.  Trying to decide on last keeper.  Nola for $28, Clevinger for $6, Bieber for $5 or E. Diaz for $16?

Paul Sporer: Clevdog

Kirk: I’m going all in on Cody Bellinger. What say you?

Paul Sporer: I’m not against that. His sophomore slump was still pretty damn good

Orange: Hey Paul. I want to go cheap SS this year – who’s one of your favorite low end guys? I like Hampson, Profar, Marte

Paul Sporer: Looove Hampson

GM: Hey Paul – Which of the following keepers should I consider trading before our 2nd year draft in a few weeks? We play H2H including OBP, Total Bases, QS, K:BB and can keep six for three seasons starting this coming at the pick value noted:

Jose Ramirez (Rd 1), Christian Yelich (Rd 2), Aaron Nola (Rd 3), Blake Snell (Rd 12), Gleyber Torres (Rd 17), Jack Flaherty (Rd 21), Juan Soto (Rd 25). I have Vlad Jr and Eloy in my pipeline as NA as well and would have to make room in 2020.

Maybe capitalize on Yelich and Flaherty 2019s – what’s the ask pick or player wise? I’m drafting out 13 / 16

Paul Sporer: At least offer Yelich to see what kinda crazy haul you can get, but I’d want to keep him unless I was knocked over by a deal and instead deal Flaherty

Hannah: I’m worried about Shaw’s playing time – thoughts on this?

Paul Sporer: At worst he’ll play all the time v. righties

Moose on the loose: Do you see Moose or Shaw making the the move to 2B?  Successfully?  How long before we see Huira?

Paul Sporer: Shaw already did. I think Moose can fake capably enough. Hiura is late summer at earliest barring something extreme

Jung Ho Kang Bang: Keep Yu Darvish for $12 in a 10 team H2H?  He had good velocity but 2 innings doesn’t mean much.

Paul Sporer: $12 is fair. He doesn’t need to be *great* to earn that

tacopocket: What’s up sporer?   5X5 12 man auction league ($300).  I am keeping story, verlander, suarez and mondesi for $66.   I am paralyzed with indecision on my last keeper.   wheeler at $5 or rendon at $23.   keep in mind that about 10 of hte top 20 starters are being kept.

Paul Sporer: I love Rendon, but I think I’m going with Wheeler at $5 to pair with JV

OddBall Herrera: Last keeper, and I need pitching much more than hitting, 12 team mixed: Berrios, Flaherty or Mondesi?

Paul Sporer: I know this isn’t always plausible, but could you pair one of the SPs and Mondesi for a TOPPPP SP? Otherwise I lean Berrios – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-120-starting-pitchers/

Matt W: My final keeper (h2h pts) is pegged to be a $5 Chuck Morton, but with the final official deadling a few days away, of course I’m second guessing myself. I’d be a fool to keep a $2 Glasnow instead, right? Right???

Paul Sporer: You wouldn’t be a fool, but I like Morton a good bit better: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-120-starting-pitchers/

el_kirbo: In a 14 team auction H2H POINTS keeper league, our league skews towards SP getting big points so 2 Start pitchers are valuable week to week. My question is going into the draft would you value quality going big on elite SP or get as many cheap arms as possible and load up on 2 SP each week?

Paul Sporer: I’d want some big dogs at the top. You can still get some cheapies and/or stream to supplement, but the workhorses (as rare as they may be) up front are great to have in h2h

el_kirbo: There are a ton of arms available this year FYI, both elite and cheap

Paul Sporer: Get some of those big dogs aaannnddd some fun cheapsters

Marco: Abreu or Aguilar? OBP league

Paul Sporer: Abreu

Kyle: Hey Sporer! Love you and all you do. I am torn on what to do in a keeper related situation. Pitchers, especially starting pitchers, are pretty heavily weighted in our league (W, ERA, WHIP, K, K/BB, QS, and Saves+Holds). I can keep Taillon in the 11th for 3 years or Luis Castillo in the 19th for 3 years. I am currently keeping deGrom in the 20th round this year and planned to keep Sale in the 1st because even in 150 innings, he puts up stupidly absurd numbers, especially in Ks, WHIP, and K/BB. The potential of pushing 175-200 innings basically makes him the #1 guy in our league in terms of projected value from everyone else. Which way would you go? Thanks so much, man!

Paul Sporer: Ty for the kind words! That is a very difficult choice, espec. w/8 rounds difference. I think I gotta go Castillo. As much as I love Taillon, I don’t think he’s 8 rds better than Castillo (who I also love)

Slapshot: I took fliers on Jay Bruce, Jake Arrieta, and Jake Lamb in a recent ottoneu auction (FG Points) for $1, $1, and $3 respectively.  Do you think I have a decent chance of profiting off any of them rebounding in 2019?

Paul Sporer: Ya, definitely. I’m not a huge Arrieta guy, but I like both bats dirt cheap like that. A healthy Lamb shoulder is 25+ HRs in the bank

Higgy: Help me sort through the glob of Heaney, kikuchi, Glasnow, Maeda and Reyes.

Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-120-starting-pitchers/ — I’m probably going to move Kikuchi up a bit, so Maeda, Heaney, and Kikuchi are probably my 3 faves

CT: Paul, I have seen you talk up Matt Strahm a lot (including this chat). Is he viable in a 12-tm, 6×6 roto? Or is he a target for deeper leagues?

Paul Sporer: More for deeper leagues. How many reserves ya got?

Correa’s Back Injuries: What do you think Correa’s chances are of bouncing back from me this year? Do you think he’ll ever reach that top 10 potential stratosphere people once anticipated for him?

Paul Sporer: If he’s healthy, he definitely can. It’s not skill, it’s health

Name Your:: Favourite cheap SS target if you have Lindor?

Paul Sporer: Jorge Polanco, Eduardo Escobar, Ketel Marte

Lyle: Re: Muncy PT – Platoons are an LAD special. Even Bellinger was benched against LHP – can I trust any LH player on that team to see regular ABs? Dave Roberts… ARGG!!!!

Paul Sporer: Belly was platooned bc he was terrible against them. Muncy had nice pop vL last year (I know that doesn’t mean he OWNS that, but I’m not uber worried about him getting platooned). Even still, Muncy can be amazing even if he’s just a strong side platoon

Kyle: Chat related question. When we are in the thick of the fantasy baseball season, how long does the queue typically get? Do you just get crazy swamped, or is it typically manageable?

Paul Sporer: It’s already crazy

Deion Branch: Should I choose Devers $6 or Muncy $4? Cost goes up by $5 next year. OBP

Paul Sporer: Muncy in OBP for sure

Hakuna Machado: Is Josh James draftable now that he’s almost assuredly not making the opening day rotation?

Paul Sporer: Really depends on league. Should be pretty deep at this pt or have a biiig reserve roster

Twitch Monster: Blake Snell is awesome. That is all.

Paul Sporer: Yes he is!

Nancy Yost: Yall seriously had to mention Santana? Heres to hoping there is no helium…..

Paul Sporer: LOLOLOL, soooorrryyyy

Ray: Are you buying what Lewis Brinson is doing? As I recall, he had a really good spring last year too, and, well…

Paul Sporer: I buy that he can def be waaaaaaaaay better than last yr, and he was good last spring, but not THIS good. He’s an interesting late flier

Jason : Gerritt Cole at $16 or Clevinger at $2

Paul Sporer: Holy smokes that is tough….

Paul Sporer: I actually think it’s Clevdog being $14 cheaper

Mike: Will Domingo Santana get enough playing time to be so rostering in 12 team 5 OF league?

Paul Sporer: PT shouldn’t be an issue. There is no reason not to give him full time

Broom: You have a philosophy on keeping a guy at or near their ADP (like one round profit – Verlander in 2nd, Benintendi 3rd) vs. taking a still-worthwhile player later just because of the relative value (ADP of 100 but kept at Pick 200)?

Paul Sporer: It honestly depends on the players, tbh

Hakuna Machado: Do you ever adjust value of a player based on potentially being traded mid-season? Thinking Castellanos is undervalued because he’s in a weak Tigers lineup but he’s a prime candidate to be traded to a better team. Your thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I don’t weigh it TOOOO heavily usually. Casty is openly seeking trade, so it makes some sense there, but usually it’s overblown as a factor

OddBall Herrera: Re: Mondesi, unfortunately my league doesn’t allow player trading before keeper lock (annoying).  So it’s either keep him or back into the player pool

Paul Sporer: Aw nuts… OK, I’d prob just keep Mondesi then

Sam Yost: Sad news about Fulmer’s bad bad low velo in first spring start how concerned are you on a scale of 1-10

Paul Sporer: like a 2, but I’m leaning away from Fulmer & Boyd anyway bc of Stewart & Casty in the OF

Biggy: Im keeping M-Chap over Gleybar in a ten team H2H.  Worried about playing time and also a 22 year old.  Can you get behind that?

Paul Sporer: I can definitely

Paul Sporer: I loooove Chapman

Biggy: Your Fry Justin Mason pod made me LOL.  While cleaning.  In my classroom.  In public

Paul Sporer: LOOOOL

Paul Sporer: it wasn’t even on purpose

The Final Boss: Lindor *was* going to be a keeper. Now I’m not so sure. How worried are you about his value?

Paul Sporer: I’d keep him in virtually every format still

Rich: Votto’s ADP is around 70.  How much sooner would you take him in a 5X5 league with OBP instead of AVG?  40th?  50th?  I think he’s likely to be undervalued due to recency bias but I don’t want to reach too much. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: He’s worth like top 25 in OBP, but I’d start looking at him around 30

Daro: Can Senzel be a top 100 player with 550PA?

Paul Sporer: Definitely

John: Is there much hope of Gallo improving his OBP this season or is he just who he’s gonna be at this point?

Paul Sporer: He can get back to .330s area and maybe push .340, but I don’t see much more as the AVG just isn’t ripe for growth

Fred: Would you trade two seasons of Knebel at $2 and $4 for Wander Franco (who can be stashed in an NA slots until he’s in the bigs)?

Paul Sporer: How many teams?

Blake Snell: BLAKE. SNELL.

Paul Sporer: CY. YOUNG.

Joe Adell’s Skyfall: Thoughts on Merrill Kelly? Thank you!

Paul Sporer: Mikolas Jr. … so solid

Tim Yost: Anything you could see from Bundy this Spring to get you on the bandwagon?

Paul Sporer: Yes, better fastball command

Cito’s Mustache: I’m seeing Ketel Marte mentioned as a potential 2019 breakout. He’s ranked 17th on your 2B list. Not buying the hype, or do you just not see him standing out in any one category?

Paul Sporer: I felt like 17 represents that I agree that he can breakout

Biggy: Next pick:  Addison Russell, Astudillo, Alfaro, Woodruff, Brad Keller?  I’m in full rebuild

Paul Sporer: Woodruff

Trea Turner: Over/under 60 SB for me?

Paul Sporer: Under… just the safe bet even that fun news about 75+ attempts

Laureano : How many bags will I swipe this year?

Paul Sporer: 18-22

Charlotte: arf!

Paul Sporer: oh hey Char!

Andy: Who out of Bogaerts, J Baez, Scooter and Chapman for my infield? 8 team keep forever. Baez eligibe at all three so he’s in. I have Wander stashed.

Paul Sporer: Baez, Bogy stand above and Scoots/Chap are interchangeable for me

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. I owe y’all some mega-marathon chats, though and they will be coming soooon! I’m also doing a fantasy baseball chat on Sunday in my Twitch stream if you want to come out to that. https://twitch.tv/sporer

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much for coming! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Snapchat (psporer). Have a good weekend and maybe see you Sunday if you come to the Twitch chat, otherwise my weekly chat will likely be on Wednesday of next week as I’m out of town Thurs-Fri. Byyyeeee