Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – July 15th, 2020

Paul Sporer: Welcome to this week’s chat! Hope y’all are doing well, let’s talk some baseball!

Slapshot: Yoenis Cespedes says he’s healthy and ready to go.  Would you consider him stash worthy in standard 5×5 roto formats, and in so, in what league size would you consider him worth getting?

Paul Sporer: I’m starting to consider him in 12ers. The DH is playing a big role in that consideration, of course

Julio Urias: How much does my value increase in 2020, without an “innings cap”?

Paul Sporer: A little, but let’s not just assume the Dodgers are gonna let Urias go 6+ every time all of a sudden. I’m a huge fan of the skills, but let’s not get toooo outsized in our expectations of the volume

Kyle: Hi Paul, I hope you are doing well these days! I have an OOTP/MLB The Show question for you. I grew up playing MVP Baseball 2005, and the franchise mode on that was very deep, as I know you are aware. It was really awesome to be able to have that extensive sim/management side, but still be able to “play” in the games with realistic gameplay when I wanted to. Have you ever desired there to be a hybrid game where OOTP and MLB The Show were combined? For example, the franchise mode would have the super in-depth management aspect of OOTP, but still give you the ability to jump in and play some (or all) games in an MLB The Show fashion. I feel like the closest things we’ve ever gotten to that is MVP Baseball 2005, and I long for that all-encompassing game again…

Paul Sporer: Yeah I definitely feel franchise modes in console games has gotten the short of the end of the stick with the card collection team builder modes taking center stage as the moneymakers. I still remember MVP’s insane franchise and definitely miss it. As such I get my franchise fill from OOTP and then gameplay from MLB, but I do feel for those desiring the combo

Jim: Kelenic going to force M’s hand or more seasoning (and service manipulation) needed?

Paul Sporer: Likely the latter. They’re unlikely to be competing and make it worth their while to bring him up, too, so his chances at playing time are very low IMO

GM: Our H2H league has pivoted to Roto for shortened season. Typically we are 6×6 (OBP, TB, HR, RBI, R, SBI / ERA, WHIP, K, QS, SV+H, K:BB). Having trouble coming up with a worthwhile  alternative for QS – what would be your suggestion? Any other categories worth swapping out this year?

Paul Sporer: I think this kind of season is conducive to just doing IP. I know you could feasibly get bad IP and help yourself in that category but since it’d hurt you everywhere else, I doubt many stream poor innings just for one category

Gurpreet: Ramon Laureano or Max Kepler

Paul Sporer: Laureano (but do like both)

Woody: In a $260, 2 catcher auction league, how high do you rate Sean Murphy? Do you think he can catch 40 games?

Paul Sporer: Around the mid-teens among Cs and yes he can get 40 behind the dish. I don’t overpay for young backstops, but I do like Murph

Ed: Hey Paul! Are you “in” on Kyle Lewis? Trying to figure if I should drop Kevin Newman in a points Dynasty league for him.

Paul Sporer: I’d prefer Newman

Bobby: HI Paul, are there any RP you’re targeting for wins? Looking for more guys like Tyler Mahle or Jalen Beeks.

Paul Sporer: Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Bryse Wilson, & Brad Peacock come to mind

Brody: Who do you think starts in LAD — Stripling or May? Who has more value in this crazy season?

Paul Sporer: Stripling. I’m a huuuuge fan of Strip and he should now have a role with Price sitting out

Guest: AL-only would you rather have Yoan Moncada at $18 or Lourdes Gurriel at $15? Or Ian Kennedy at $6?

Paul Sporer: I love Gurriel, but I gotta go Moncada here. Both could earn their prices with relative ease, but Moncada has the better shot at crushingggg his price

Sean: Who will have more strikeouts this year – JV or ClevDawg?

Paul Sporer: I agonized over this way too long, but I’ll go JV

Guest: Have you lost all interest in Hilliard and Carlson based on recent news?

Paul Sporer: Wait, what news?

Scioscia distancing: C realmuto, Stallings, 1b votto, 3b McNeil, cr Voit, 2b arraez, ss Segura, mi hampson, of acuna, Cain, hicks, Dickerson, berti, utl Murphy….sp guys I kept plus degrom, rp petit, Lugo, Baez and stammen. Projections on rotowire have me 20 pts ahead of 2nd. Winning era, whip, holds, k’s, wins, avg, sb, finishing top 3 in runs and obp. Can this work?

Paul Sporer: It’s definitely a strong crew and it’s always nice to project well, but this year of all years is one where I’d be leery of resting too much projections. You’re going to need to stay diligent and work through the 2 months to secure the title

RMR: Odds Puig is in the lineup on OD?

Paul Sporer: 61%

Guest: Tapia was named the starter in left and the Cardinals said they want to see what they have in O’Neill.

Paul Sporer: Damn, missed Tapia. Knew Carlson was likely gonna get the one week treatment at least so I’m not really moving off him much, but Hilliard has to drop down.

RMR: Odds Senzel picks up 2B eligibility this year?  Would love to see them use him to spell Moustakas and maybe let him and Suarez spend some time at DH.

Paul Sporer: I thought there was something where they said he’s done on the dirt. I couldn’t find it with a cursory search, but I thought I recalled that from winter. At any rate, I’d put it around 15-20% chance

Peter: How does Puig signing affect Riley’s projections? Who would you rather have him or Kyle Lewis?

Paul Sporer: Puts a huge dent in them so you have to go with Lewis on playing time alone

ricky: what do you do with kopech in a keeper dynasty league?

Paul Sporer: Hang on right now. Selling super low isn’t worth it, especially after waiting out the TJ

RMR: How ugly is the PT breakdown between Reddick and Tucker going to be?  Based on Dusty’s comments the other week, I feel like it’s going to worse than what I imagined.

Paul Sporer: It’s rough for Tuck. He’ll spot in, but it could be hard to rip the job from Reddick in a two-month run

Mr. Fister: Man, I can’t wait to hear some baseballs hitting empty seats in the stands.

Paul Sporer: Better than no baseballs hitting anything, I guess

Peter: Should Kyle Tucker still be rostered in a 12 team 5×5 Toto league?

Paul Sporer: As a reserve, sure

Peter: Tapia was not names the starter!
Here’s the rewrite of a source

 

RotoWire⚾

@RotoWireMLB

 

Raimel Tapia: Set for starting job – rotowire.com/baseball/playe…

14 Jul 2020

Here’s the source

Peter: Tapia was not named the starter… He WANTS to be the starter. Rotowire messed up

Source:

 

Kyle Newman

@KyleNewmanDP

 

Just got off a call with Raimel Tapia. In addition to cementing starting LF job for #Rockies, he said his goal this season is to win the MVP (Nolan Arenado who?). El Cangrejo is setting the bar high

14 Jul 2020

Rewrite of source:
https://twitter.com/RotoWireMLB/status/1283182576094588938

Paul Sporer: Ahh ok, thank you for the clarification

RMR: I’m really feeling a Zac Gallen breakout this year.  Any red flags that give you pause?

Paul Sporer: Experience would be the biggest, but the talent is there to really breakthrough

Peter: Thoughts on Evan White this year?

Paul Sporer: I’m intrigued by the profile, but 1B-only who isn’t a huge power source and skipping Triple-A has me more of an observer than someone drafting him right now

Peter: Rotowire really gave all my Sam Hillard shares a heart attack with that Tapia mess up. But if the job is Tapia’s, i’m add Tapia and dropping Hillard? But lets be honest, the rockies will screw us all and play Kemp there.

Paul Sporer: Oh ya, Kemp is 10000% taking the job looool. In 10- and 12-teams I’d drop Hilly for Tapia IF Tapia is indeed announced

Jack off all trades: How many homeruns will it take to lead the league this year?  Who you got?

Paul Sporer: I think someone will pop 20. Gimme Matt Olson for the win!

D: Gurriel or B Lowe or C Hernandez as backup 2B

Paul Sporer: Gurriel for me (great trio to choose from)

Mr. Fister: When will MLB start mic’ing up players for tv?

Paul Sporer: When the All-Star comes back, not sure it’s gonna be a regular season thing

Karl: With a shortened season how long are you willing to wait on someone underachieving? 1 or 2 poor weeks and it’s time to drop?

Paul Sporer: Depends where they are drafted, but yes, it could be as short as a week with someone drafted late

Mr. Fister: On a scale of 1-10, how big of a dick is Don Cooper for publicly questioning Kopech’s mental health?

Paul Sporer: What?!?! That’s out of pocket for sure, gotta go 90 on the 1-10 scale

RMR: What do you think the split of save opps is this year between Melancon and Smith?  Does Melancon get most of them or is it move of a 60/40 split?

Paul Sporer: If Melancon doesn’t meltdown, I think he’s closer to 80% of em

Max: Paul – I know you are a fan of both C.J. Cron and Tony Disco.  For the sprint of a season ahead of us, would you trade Tony for C.J.  in Deep 5×5 roto

Paul Sporer: Yep, gimme the hitter in a relatively even value trade!

bobsyouruncle: Kiner-Falefa’s new swing worth a C spot in 2 C league?

Paul Sporer: 15+ teams or AL only

Vegan Man!: You in on Shogo in OBP? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Biiiiiig time

mokajige: Struggling with whether or not to keep Brendan McKay or grab another starter. My league has no bench spots and I don’t know if he’s going to get enough innings or chances at wins. Thoughts on him this year?

Paul Sporer: I don’t really trust him this year… or really the Rays more than him. But yeah, I’m not really looking at him as more than a reserve so I’d look for another SP if I were you

D: any interest in stat cast darlings like Houser or CJ Cron

Paul Sporer: Big fan of both, actually!

Mr. Fister: Is there an opt-out deadline whenit comes to COVID-19?  Can a player accrue a year of service time, and then opt out?

Paul Sporer: I gotta imagine it’s coming up. I’m not sure you can just opt-out in-season

Guest: Is it crazy to take Kyle Tucker in the mid-rounds without a clear path to playing time? He’s sooooo valuable in the auction calculator.

Paul Sporer: In a 60-game, yes. The clock might just run out before he has time to do anything major

mokajige: Garrett Richards, Reynaldo Lopez, Alex Wood, Kevin Gausman. Which guy you taking?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Richards from that group!

Jimmy2Times: Saying Thames could start most games. You diggin him?

Paul Sporer: Yes, love both Thames & Kendrick in Washington

Eduardo: more productive player,,, winker or chavis?

Paul Sporer: Winker

Peter: Where are your SP rankings?

Paul Sporer: http://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-100-sp-for-a-60-game-season/ — update soon

Max: Austin Allen is back throwing heat!  Chances he will be getting the majority of the few save chances in SEA?

Paul Sporer: Great under the radar candidate, even on a crummy team

Salty: O/U 15 saves leads the league?

Paul Sporer: Just over… 17

Vegan Man!: Will my OF cut it in a 12 team OBP? Benintendi, Brantley, JDD, Hampson, Canha, Shogo? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: OBP is on point, but power is light. Hopefully you’re stacked on the infield

Ryan: Is Isan Diaz the long term 2B in Miami?  He has an interesting profile for sure.

Paul Sporer: He’s at least the short term with the chance to be long term if he plays well. I really like him in deeper leagues this year and as a wire watch in shallower formats

Peter: Houser, Rich Hill, Spencer Howard, McKay as my SP6?

Paul Sporer: I’ll take Houser

Guest: Carson Kelly is a top-5 catcher but is being drafted outside the top 10. T/F?

Paul Sporer: F until he learns to better hit righties

Vegan Man!: RE my IF in OBP: Freeman, Albies, Escobar, DeJong, Voit, Walker, Yordan, Bigio. I could probably use a power OF bat late. Any recs? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: That definitely improves the HR output. I’d have to know which OF are available to recommend one you could get

Not Trevor Plouffe: I’m in an interesting league set-up with four World Cup-style groups before six team playoffs. My group is pretty weak, and I think I can win comfortably barring disaster. On a scale from 0 to 100 where 0 is build for the future and 100 is go all-in, what do you think my strategy should be and why?

Paul Sporer: 78, play for the now! It’d be higher if it wasn’t 60 games and still a chance to not happen, but I lean toward going in for this year

RMR: Could Tucker get PT at DH with Yordan out?

Paul Sporer: He would if Alvarez is out for an extended period of time, so we’ll have to monitor that situation. I suspect Alvarez will be back, though

Eric: Better long term fantasy OFer…R. Arozarena or K. Lewis?

Paul Sporer: I like Arozarena, but playing time is a challenge so I have to go with Lewis in the present

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!

Vegan Man!: Available OF with pop: Grichuk, O’Neill, Kole Calhoun, Aquino, Polanco, Carlson…

Paul Sporer: Grichuck / O’Neill