Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – February 10th, 2017

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon everyone! We’re less than a week away from pitchers and catchers starting to report!!!!

tbone: Does Naquin hold down the Tribe’s CF position all year? If not, who takes over the job?

Paul Sporer: I’m not super confident, to be honest. I think Bradley Zimmer and Greg Allen will be knocking on the door, especially Zimm

Will: In a 6×6 fantasy league (Rs, HRs, TRBS, Rs, RBIs, NSB, OBP) how would you rate these three over the next three years: Eric Hosmer, Daniel Murphy, Brandon Belt

Paul Sporer: Murphy, Belt, Hosmer

Will: What are you expecting out of Norris now that he is in Washington?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think he can be any worse. That was a disastrous season after three solid ones. Not sure if he played through injuries or not, but I think at worst we see a rebound to the low-.700s of ’15

natsfan: What are the chances that Bourjos’ presence on White Sox significantly cuts down on Charlie Tilson‘s playing time?

Paul Sporer: Bourjos doesn’t really threaten anyone’s time if they’re worth playing. I’m not sure how good Tilson is, but Bourjos is a 4th OF

rob: In terms of value for an 11-team, $260 keeper league, would you be so kind as to rank the following players: N. Jones $6, L. Martin $12, Sano $13, Dozier $27. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Dozier, Sano, Jones, Martin

Twinkies: Care to share your thoughts on what we might expect from Byron Buxton in 2017?

Paul Sporer: I think the projections are far to start with. Obviously there is tons of upside from there, but I’m not completely sold he’s breaking out just bc of Sept. I’d bump the triple slash a little and add a few SBs from proj – .255, 17 HR, 22 SB

Zig: We have four bench spots in my keeper league, so at the auction I generally like to dedicate one bench spot to the prospect I deem most likely to make an impact that season. The best prospects available this year are DeLeon, Giolito, Kopech Lopez. Which guys should I be gunning for?

Paul Sporer: Do you draft prospects to flip them or to develop them? This seems like AL only based on the names you gave and if that’s the case, I’d definitely aim to flip them. With that in mind, I’d go Kopech, Giolito, De Leon, Lopez. If you’re looking for ’17 value, you can basically flip though I might favor De Leon

Will: Matt Boyd, intriguing SP this year?

Paul Sporer: Definitely. More intrigued by Daniel Norris, but Boyd showed some flashes last year. Needs to keep the ball in the park, but there’s some deeper league upside

Closer Monkey: Is David Robertson a member of the White Sox come opening day?

Paul Sporer: Yes, but traded in-season

Minty: What’s your best guess on Zimmerman’s ? of what percentage of ’17 is Moncada in the Majors?

Paul Sporer: 64%

Todd: I have Sandoval for $6 in my AL-only keeper league. My initial plan was to deal away as I know a few GMs in my league would jump at the chance to acquire him at that price (even though I think he’s pretty much worth exactly $6). However, all the reports that come in continue to be glowing, so now I find myself considering the idea of keeping him, and perhaps backing him up at the auction by adding Healy as my UTIL, so that I know I’m covered at 3B no matter what. So, does Paul think I should trade him or keep him?

Paul Sporer: Depends on the market, if someone wants to pay something you really want, then make a move. But I have no issue holding

Troll: What’s the deal with Collin McHugh? Seemed prime to break out at times, but has now settled in as a mediocre starter who can strike guys out. Worth grabbing shares of or shy away from him completely?

Paul Sporer: I think we saw the best of him in ’14. He’s a solid #4 starter and a solid #4 can have a huge season like he did in ’14, but in the end, he’s still a #4

Speedy Gonzalez: Based on all the players being kept in my league, it appears that SB are going to be even more scarce than I expected. Like we’re talking maybe at most 2 guys available who stole 20 bags last year. I anticipate GMs severely overpaying at the auction as a result for anyone mildly mobile, which puts me in a bind as I would prefer not to do the same. How do I circumvent this obstacle? Do I simply try and shoot for the middle of the standings in the SB category, and spend my money wisely elsewhere in hopes that I can gain an advantage in the other categories? Thanks.

Paul Sporer: Best bet would probably be to scrape the bottom of the barrel for random SB sources. Not sure how deep the league is, but I’d start looking at sources like Owings, Tilson, Mallex Smith, Maybin, and Mondesi. Maybe reserve an Alen Hanson on PIT.

Minty: Meadows or Bellinger this year, next 3?

Paul Sporer: Belly

dave in slc: al only looking to trade for a closer diaz or giles both at $10. I have Norris and Cobb at $1 Eduardo Rodriguez at 2, Ian kennedy at 4 or Kepler at 5. are the closers worth any/all of these and which would you prefer to give or keep?

Paul Sporer: The closers are probably worth any one of those guys, yeah. I’d prefer to keep Cobb and Kepler. I’d also target Giles.

natsfan: Any reason to not go the extra year ($5 extra) on Danny Salazar at $5 and Brad Miller for $1 in AL-only?

Paul Sporer: I don’t usually contract SPs, but at $10 he has a lot of latitude to still be a plus value, so ya I’d do both

AlternativeFactMan: Does both Cotton/Conley start season in majors? I have early draft and I would end up losing them if they start season in minors.

Paul Sporer: Oh damn. It’s a little tough, but I feel pretty good about both breaking camp. Think Conley might be safer

Will: Where do you think Matt Wieter’s ultimately ends up? Are you surprised he hasn’t signed yet?

Paul Sporer: I really don’t know and yes I’m surprised. Maybe the White Sox on the sneak tip?

Jose: In a 7×7 dynasty league, how do you rank Gsellman, Wood, Skaggs, Montgomery, Corbin? Do you actively target or avoid any of them in drafts?

Paul Sporer: Monty, Skaggs, Corbin, Gsellman, Wood. I’ve never been much of an Alex Wood fan. Eno’s got urrybody hyped on Monty and I’m in http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016s-best-pitches-thrown-by-starters/

Pedro: Thoughts on Trumbo for 2017? Able to keep him for $5 in a 14 team (OBP) league.

Paul Sporer: Gotta keep him at that, even in OBP

Leroy: I’m eyeing Shoemaker, Cotton and Musgrove as mid-to-late round targets to round out my pitching staff. Would you be so kind as to share your general thoughts on the three? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I really like all three. If Shoe is healthy after getting hit in the head, he’ll be back to being a solid mid-rotation arm. I was very high on Musgrove coming into the ’16 and I’m still fully in. Fell in love with Cotton and can’t wait for his ’17

Paul Sporer: In short, I like all three

Paul: How will fantasy software handle the multi eligibility of Bethancourt (RP/C/OF)?

Paul Sporer: Great question, I really don’t know. It could be just as simple as giving him all three and then he can be moved all over.

Really?: Who starts a chat at 2:10? Maybe next time you can be a little earlier and start at 2:07? Maybe 2:03?

Paul Sporer: Worthwhile comment!

Eric: What do you think about Nunez – is he a solid starter in a 12-team league or more of a back-end option? Was last year a total fluke or can he more or less repeat?

Paul Sporer: It was mostly a playing time breakout so as long as he stays in the lineup (no reason he shouldn’t), he should be a solid fantasy asset again. I agree with the 10 HR/30 SB projection more than a ’16 repeat, but that’s still good

Larry David: Would it surprise you if the Yankees end up with more wins than the Jays this year?

Paul Sporer: No, there’s a path to that for sure

dave in slc: al only do you keep Paxton at 15 and/or smyly at 12 or throw back and try to get cheaper?

Paul Sporer: I’d probably throw both back. If I was going to keep one, it’d be Paxton for usre

Minty: Bellinger+Cotton or Springer in OBP keeper?

Paul Sporer: Springer

Wendell: Can Jorge Soler hit 25 home runs this year?

Paul Sporer: Definitely

Maxamuz: I just ate half a bad of grape big league chew.

Paul Sporer: So good. Love grape BLC

Blackbird: Dynasty League: Archer ($15/1yr) for Jose Berrios ($6/5yeas) and Folty ($2/1yr).

Paul Sporer: Gimme Archer

Will: Eduardo Nunez second half spell disaster for this year?

Paul Sporer: See above. He’ll be solid if unspectacular

dave in slc: keep Austin hedges in an nl only 2 catcher league at $6?

Paul Sporer: Ehhhh. I haven’t done research on him to know how much I trust the hitting breakout in AAA, but I’m leaning no here

G: Buying or selling Tommy Joseph?

Paul Sporer: Buying at reasonable prices

Trainman: Trevor May, all aboard the potential closer train with Perkins hurting again? I feel for Perkins I had him a few years when he was a great closer.

Paul Sporer: yes, I think it’s very possible.

Mark: Is Tyler Flowers a serviceable catcher in a 30tm league?

Paul Sporer: Sure, that’s hella deep. Anyone playing seems viable

Choo Choo: Thames or AGon at 1b?

Paul Sporer: AGone. I have some Thames hype, but I’d still go AG

Eric: How do you think Maurer will do as closer?

Paul Sporer: Pretty well. Liked him as SP back in the day. Live arm

Dave: Final keeper in a 12-team, keep 5 league: Mazara or Hendricks?

Paul Sporer: Ah that’s tough. I just love Maz and I don’t think Hendricks is a top five round pick. I’m going to say go Maz

Dal: In a 12 team H2H dynasty, would you trade away Benintendi for Cespedes or trade away Bellinger for Carpenter?

Paul Sporer: Get Carp, keep Beni

Truckstop: $24 K. Davis or $27 Dozier? And is the difference between the two marginal or significant?

Paul Sporer: I like Davis’ chances to pop 40 again more than Doz, but Doz also gives double digit SB so it’s him

Pete: How close (or far apart) do you think Dahl and Brinson are fantasy-wise in a keep forever roto league?

Paul Sporer: I value Dahl quite a bit more right now. Brinson is appealing, but Dahl is ready to go this year

Will: Who do you foresee as the first closer to lose their job this year?

Paul Sporer: Kintzler

Paul Sporer: to Trevor May

Marc: I’m struggling with my last keeper spot for an AL only league. Because of positional scarcity, I am leaning towards protecting Zunino over Gurriel, Tillman, Betances, Severino or other starters.

Paul Sporer: I’ve never been a Zunino fan so I don’t support this. I’d go Dellin or Yuli tbh

Paul Sporer: But this is where knowing your league is important and if you think you’ll be sunk at C with out Zunino, then you might have to keep him

MeDeKe: As a Cubs fan growing up near STL in the 80s…cannot stand that song, yuk! What do you think Folty’s 90th percentile outcome is? #3 SP? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: 90th percentile is probably a #2, tbh. I feel like it’d be low-3.00s, good WHIP, and a K per inning

dave in slc: nl only would you rank $34 cespedes, $31 myers $29 trea turner?

Paul Sporer: Turner, Myers, Yo

natsfan: Mazara $7 Kepler $2 Leonys Martin $8, Tilson $1…..keep all of these guys and just buy the best available OF or throw 1 back? 2 dh/utility spots also available

Paul Sporer: All seem pretty keepable in an AL Only. I’d rank them exactly as you have it listed, though, so if you wanted to chop on, chop Tilson

smokeyD: Correa for Trea Turner & Scherzer in a H2H dynasty league. Which side do you take?

Paul Sporer: Turner and Scherzer for sure

Trainman: Happy Friday Paul! Question for you: AL only league I’m probably down to a few players for a last keeper slot, but if he were to sign in the AL: wieters at $11 or berrios at $2? OBP instead of BA and our roster must start 2 C. My other C is Russell Martin at $15.

Paul Sporer: Happy Friday! I’m still keen on Berrios so I’d go with him. You already have a #1 C so I don’t think you need to keep Wiets

Hector: Between Xander and Lindor, who do you see improving from last year’s numbers, if any?

Paul Sporer: I don’t have either down for a big jump, but if there was one, I’d think Lindor could maybe have a hot year and run up like a .330 AVG by pairing his great skills and some BABIP good fortune

Randy: Another keeper question sorry. I usually try to always win now and just keep the better players almost regardless of age and contract status. However I’m really torn on an expiring V-Mart and a Marcus Semien who can be kept for the length of his career for my final spot in a 12 tm 6×6 league. Where do you usually draw the line between winning now and future success? Thanks Paul!

Paul Sporer: I think you can keep Semien and it’s still a go-for-it move because he’s contributing right now. Love VMart, but go with Semien

Tommy: Going after some more under-the-radar, high-K middle relievers instead of ponying up for closers or their immediate handcuffs. Michael Feliz and Trevor Rosenthal worth looks as $1 fliers?

Paul Sporer: I like both. I think Oh holds that role, but he’s 34 so if he were to get hurt, I think it goes right back to Rosy. Feliz could be a multi-IP reliever which would enhance his value

Jeff: Based on his injuries, how much would you want to pay for Pollock in a trade?

Paul Sporer: Initial run through of my OF ranks (and we’re releasing OF ranks on Monday btw) has me lower than his ADP by a solid bit. He’s 7th among OF in ADP and I have him early-teens

Chaco Chicken: Who is the pitcher to own in PHI? Nola looks best but worrying injury, Velasquez had a rough 2nd half, is Eickhoff the safest?

Paul Sporer: Big fan of VV and Nola. Wish we could turn injuries off. Eickhoff is probably safest, but that’s just a nice way of saying lowest ceiling, too. I’d go VV, Nola, and Eick in that order

Slamboni: AL only. Which of these relievers should I keep in saves only scoring? Edwin Diaz $3 (obviously), Zach Britton $23, Cam Bedrosian $3, Andrew Miller $18

Paul Sporer: keep Diaz and Britton.

Eric: Do you think Justin Turner hits 30 HR this year?

Paul Sporer: Very possible. I’d put him down for 25, but the difference is a few wind gusts as Ron Shandler likes to say

Trainman: Jharel Cotton.. what are your thoughts on him? Going to keep him and I know he had a very small sample size of innings, but I liked what I saw. Obviously an extreme flyball pitcher so his peripherals will be higher. His projections are all over the place. What are yours?

Paul Sporer: I’m hyped – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/opening-the-mailbag-volume-i/

bl27: Devon Travis is a player to target this season.

Paul Sporer: A declarative instead of a question, I like it!

Don: Kris Bryant + what would be a fair deal for Trout?

Paul Sporer: Trout is the clear #1, but I wouldn’t go nuts with the secondary piece. A double-digit round arm maybe?

TheREALrobdeer: Final keeper in a 14 team h2h- Keon Broxton, Smyly, Eduardo R

Paul Sporer: Brox

Sonny: Is Daniel Murphy worth sliding ahead of Goldy, Marte, Blackmon, Posey, Darvish? Light on pitching but also 2B in 5×5 ops

Paul Sporer: 2B is hella deep, so no. Fully in on Murph train, but I don’t think you need to leapfrog him over that group. In a vacuum, I’d take him over Posey, but 2B’s depth changes it to Posey for me

Yuk Yuk Puk: Is Mike Zunino worth keeping at a league minimum in an AL only? Catching just so thin beyond Lucroy, McCann, Sanchez

Paul Sporer: At league min, sure, even though I’m not a fan at all

Curtis: Who hits more homeruns in 2017…Altuve or Judge?

Paul Sporer: Atluve

Paul Sporer: or Altuve

I Love Paul: I really do not understand all the love Ian Desmond is getting… he is 31 years of age threshold (ie. speed is likely to diminish at a quicker pace), has league average power, and had a BABIP that inflated his BA for the most of last year. Does Coors really make him a fantasy stud, worth a 5th or 6th round pick?

Paul Sporer: He was a fantasy stud last year and he’s going to the best hitting park ever, so I think it does. I get your point about age and speed, but he’s been one of the healthiest guys in the league during his career so I just don’t see a major drop-off. Love Desi this year

David: Who emerges a the A’s closer?

Paul Sporer: I think Madson keeps until maybe getting dealt, then Doolittle, but Doo is the only lefty projected in the pen

Virgin Islander: Cobb gets traded in June to the Cubbies-you heard it here from the Virgin Islands first!

Paul Sporer: Ooh interesting. Love Alex Cobb so being on an elite team would be fun to see

Connor: Upside for Moustakas? 280/30/100?

Paul Sporer: Top flight upside, yeah. You can see the path to that from the .270/24/80 projections

Rick: Who has a better season…. Kelvin Herrera or Wade Davis?

Paul Sporer: Herrera and not because I’m DOWN on Davis, either. I just love Herrera.

Ben: Is keeping a $16 Dozier a no-brainer over $13 Yelich or $8 Piscotty?

Paul Sporer: Ya because even if he’s 30 HR-10 SB, it’s better than what the other two offer. Yelly makes up some of the HR/SB deficit with AVG for sure, but Dozier is the pick for me

Martin: I mapped starting pitcher costs in my league over the past three seasons. Costs are going up and more and more starters are being kept. Should this influence my decision to keep a third starter (Lester) over Springer? 16 team h2h 6×6 Keep 4 (and 2 rookies) league.

Paul Sporer: with visuals!!! love it!!! This is exactly the kind of stuff people should do to best understand their league. In a vacuum, I’d say Springer all day, but with this knowledge, I agree that Lester is the way to go

Steve: Springer for Pollock+ what type of secondary piece in an OBP keeper?

Paul Sporer: Are you giving Springer? I’d take whatever I could get with Pollock as I just don’t see the two far apart at all

bl27: last year I selected Carlos Santana, Jonathan Schoop and Jon Gray very late in the draft (16 teams). Do you have ideas for 2017 ?

Paul Sporer: Looking at the same positions, I’d say: Bour, Panik, and Cotton or Cobb

Don: What do you project for Orlando Arcia this season, and what does peak Arcia look like?

Paul Sporer: If he gets the time, I think a 10 HR/20 SB season is possible, but I’m not sure the triple slash will be much to look at. I see a .260 AVG on the high end this year and I’d probably project something closer to .240

Bobby: 12 Team keep forever HTH points league: Dansby Swanson or Max Kepler and Danny Salazar?

Paul Sporer: Gimme the duo of Kep and Salazar

Curtis: How about a surprise 40HR guy this season?

Paul Sporer: Joc Pederson and Jonathan Schoop

CMo: Who is this year’s surprise breakout mid to late round SP in a 12 team draft?

Paul Sporer: Gave a few AL and NL – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-leap-year-al-edition/ http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-leap-year-nl-edition/ also check my ADP thoughts at SP: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/early-adp-thoughts-starting-pitcher-part-i/ http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/early-adp-thoughts-starting-pitcher-part-ii/

Jay: Are you a little more conservative in auction leagues with pitchers participating in the WBC? Should we be in general or is it generally just case by case?

Paul Sporer: I’m not. I wonder if anyone has done research on previous WBCs. Problem is that samples are small, both in terms of how many IP they throw in a WBC as well as the # of WBCs to analyze

dave in slc: top non closers you would target in hopes they do get saves at some point?

Paul Sporer: This is from October so it’s a little dated (Ottavino will start as closer in COL) – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/five-relievers-who-could-close-in-2017/ few other names: Nate Jones, Matt Bush, Cam Bedrosian

CMo: Jean Segura or Jonathan Villar for 2017?

Paul Sporer: Villar — Segura was really helped by his environment. I don’t think he completely craters, but he’s coming down

Chris: anything to worry about with bregman? or is he a legit .280 20+ HR guy right now?

Paul Sporer: Lack of experience, but I think he has “it”. I was just really impressed with how he handled his debut slump and then took off the rest of the way. Common comp is Dustin Pedroia, but I saw it immediately, too, even before reading ppl saying the same. It stands out. So he really could be an insta-star.

bl27: with Kiermaier, Souza, Dickerson and Rasmus, Mallex Smith value is now very low ? Dickerson a platoon player again in 2017 ?

Paul Sporer: Ya he’s a platoon guy. Even in Colorado, Dickerson didn’t hit lefties

Sonny: Is Joc’s low SB totals at MLB level a function of LA philosophy or a personal change in Joc’s approach? That power with 15…20…SBs

Paul Sporer: I think he’s learning how to steal in the majors. And I could definitely see some instruction to not run much right now while he learns how to hit at the majors. I still believe we’ll see a speed burst, so ya I think he could go 30 HR/15 SB this year

TheREALrobdeer: Dynasty- Addy Russell vs Dansby- who do you keep, which do you try to deal?

Paul Sporer: In a dynasty, I think you have to deal if you don’t keep both. I’d go Russell as my keeper and then trade Dansby

James C: In a 12 team H2H Cat with OPS and K/9, would you trade Arrieta for Cruz? No keeper penalty and I could use the additional power I think.

Paul Sporer: I think that’s a fair deal. Cruz has been incredible the last three seasons and doesn’t get his due

Chuck: In your wildest dreams, could you keep Villar over Lindor? Those 60 SBs seem awfully enticing and the power shouldn’t drop precipitously in Miller.

Paul Sporer: I’m taking Villar over Lindor in drafts right now so I certainly could. Even if Villar comes down to .265 and 13 HR, I think it comes with 50+ SBs.

Paul Sporer: Let’s not forget that Villar is just 26 years old, too. Hardly some crusty vet.

Sonny: Stashed Eloy, Meadows, O’Neill, Bellinger & Zimmer in a 10 team keep forever but want to open up a roster spot or two before the draft. There’s trade interest in Meadows so I could get something but the other 4 would most likely be straight cuts can you rank? 5×5 w OPS

Paul Sporer: Zimm, Belly, O’Neill, Eloy — I think Zimmer is up this year for CLE

Greg: What makes you love Kevin Gausman?

Paul Sporer: I’m a sucker for splitters, but I also love his elite velo, size, and control. Needs to hone the command and start stifling HRs, though

Chris: Odds that Roark can continue being a soft-contact god?

Paul Sporer: Strong. I’m not sure we’re seeing another sub-3.00, but put a 3.30-3.50 projection on him and enjoy a boatload of innings

Connor: How many games do the Padres lose this season? I think there a 100 loss team

Paul Sporer: I think the talent gaps are tighter leaguewide so I *feel* like we don’t see as many 100-L teams (just one last year). That rotation IS awful, though, so I get what you’re saying. If I say 95, it’s splitting hairs because any projection has like a 7-10 variance, so I can see it

Eh: Considering buying Bradley Zimmer. His 90th % is __(player comp)__, and the chance he reaches it is _______? Chance he busts is ________? Worried about the K’s, but I know he was playing hurt/tinkering a lot of last year?

Paul Sporer: 90% is like Blackmon 2014-15 perhaps minus a good bit of AVG since he wouldn’t be in COL. 40% reach, 15% bust… interesting mad lib, but these are admittedly guesses

Dr Angry: Kanye is still the best rapper in the game. Come at me.

Paul Sporer: I love Kanye

Nick: 2017’s Villlar is?

Paul Sporer: Still really good

Guest: Why no SP Guide this year?

Paul Sporer: Lots of work to be done to put together a great Draft Kit for RG!

Big Z: How many more years will goldschmidt be a 1st round pick?

Paul Sporer: 3

Justino: If two fantasy teams in a default/generic league format consisted entirely of one team Cubs, one team Dodgers, who would be the better team?

Paul Sporer: Cubs. More dynamic offense

Tom: 10 team NL only league , start 9 pitchers- keep Matt Harvey at 20 ? Normally he would be worth about 29 , but coming off an injury and bad season

Paul Sporer: If you have to make the decision before seeing him in spring, then no. I’m just worried after the thoracic outlet surgery

Ian: think Hwang gets some regular PT at 3B in SF? His highlights are entertaining

Paul Sporer: Ya bc they can slide Nunez out to LF

Seansy: I just traded Michael Brantley in dynasty for picks in our rookie/int’l intake draft. Please talk me off the cliff for my buyers remorse and please tell me why I did the right thing.

Paul Sporer: I think you’re fine. I’m worried about his health. Backs are a bitch. #backsareabitch

EA: kinsler or zobrist at 2B?

Paul Sporer: Kins

A. Reitz: Not that I disagree w/ the idea, but I’m curious how you get away with not contracting players in your Dynasty/Keeper leagues? If your league has any kind of depth to it, 16+ you simply can’t get away w/ that. There’s nothing in the Auction Pool to retool your team w/ and all the good SP’s have contracts tied to them (especially the Top 40)

Paul Sporer: NL only we only keep up to 7. There’s enough turnover

Sonny: what is your preferred league setup? what’s a league you’d start today look like?

Paul Sporer: I really enjoy 15-team mixers

Sloth: Any catchers I can target late?

Paul Sporer: Tom Murphy and Cameron Rupp

Kenny: What is more important in h2h leagues, hitters or starting pitchers?

Paul Sporer: Usually SPs, espec if you can’t or don’t plan to stream

Larry Bernandez: Re: previous question about Zimmer, wouldn’t the chance he reaches his 90th percentile comp be 10% by definition?

Paul Sporer: See why I avoid math questions? Good lookin, Bernandez

Paul Sporer: Good lookin’ out*

sonny: Rank in dynasty: Carlos Gomez, Heyward, Margot, Duvall

Paul Sporer: you just did

Paul Sporer: I’d favor margot’s speed in dynasty, even though Duvall has already shown us something

Ryan: Should we expect another Khris Davis 35+ HR / 90+ RBI season?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think he’ll continue to mash

Brad: When’s draft kit come out?

Paul Sporer: Early-Mar. More deets coming soon

Neal: Hi Paul! How much more value does Billy Hamilton have in roto leagues? I’m in a 30-team dynasty, and he can win you a category almost by himself.

Paul Sporer: Ya you gotta factor that in for deep leagues. He’s already 52nd off the board, though, not sure he should go TOOO much higher

Curtis: What do you think your percentage of multi-positional players on any of your fantasy teams is? not all three OF spot eligibility but 2B/3B, CF/SS, C/1B/LF, etc

Paul Sporer: I favor those players in deeper leagues especially, so I usually have a few

Jon: I’m leaning towards keeping Jose Ramirez over Jones, Bautista & Fowler in a keep forever league. Your thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I like it, though I don’t know which Jones (that said, Adam or Nate doesn’t change anything)

JD15: Best advice for 1st year Ottoneu draft (fgpts)?

Paul Sporer: Start virtually thumbing through the Ottoneu articles – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/category/ottoneu/

Chuck: Thought on Desclafani’s stock? Is 10th-11th round in a 12-team league reasonable?

Paul Sporer: No, that’s way high. He’s going after pick 200 in NFBC drafts right now

Andres: Please rank 12 team mixed 5×5: Aroldis 16A, Travis 1B, Braun 31A, Tanaka 14A. Gracias!

Paul Sporer: Aroldis, Travis, Tanaka, Braun.

Paul Sporer: Just don’t want to pay market for Braun when the rest are so cheap

Maxamuz: Matt Cain is making 21m this year.

Paul Sporer: Wonder if he’d gimme a few bucks, I gotta get some good cards for my MLB The Show 17 virtual team

Joe: Odubel Herrera a good $5 keeper in a points league?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I think so

Sonny: Paul Sporer’s official Post Hype recommendation for 2017 is?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure your namesake counts, but I’m on the Sonny Gray bandwagon on the cheap. Matt Moore is an obvious one that many will be on. So how about Taijuan Walker?

kdallas: Is Broxton a legit OF3 in OBP/OPS leagues?

Paul Sporer: The OBP aspect helps, but we still haven’t seen enough to trust him in that role. I’d say OF4 or 5

Yorky: what do you think keep Brandon Finnegan or Tyler Anderson– both 4 salary and same contract year Thanks

Paul Sporer: I like both. Finny – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-leap-year-nl-edition/ Anderson – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/early-adp-thoughts-starting-pitcher-part-ii/ … think I’d lean Finny at equal cost

Ryan: Paxton’s late-season adjustments seem legit. Fourth lowest FIP- in 120 IP. If he maintains that success into 2017, is he a top 10 SP? Draft price seems way too cheap.

Paul Sporer: I think his cost will rise. He’s going to be a wide awake sleeper – meaning he’ll be on every sleeper list thus eating his sleeper value. That said, I still love him bc even a substantial jump probably still only boosts him to pick 140-150

Tom: based on his finish to last season what do you expect from Wily Peralta– he was really good after returning from the minors

Paul Sporer: He was and it went mostly unnoticed. Could be a nice little NL gem.

Wash Irv: If you had Moncada and Buxton on a team that on paper looks like the third best team in a haves and haves not dynasty league, do you hold them, trade them, or withhold judgement until midseason?

Paul Sporer: I’d probably sell one to strengthen the team for ’17. Hard to choose which, let the market instruct you there.

Roy Hobbs: If Addison Russell‘s missing only more hits (BA) to keep him from really busting loose, why is he still targeted in the 10-12rd range in points leagues? He’s not all that far from Correa.

Paul Sporer: Because there’s still work to do to get those hits. He does have a .240 AVG over 1121 PA, but I’m obviously a big believer so I think he will improve the AVG. Enjoy the perceived discount on his upside and draft him all day

Bored: Does Jorge Alfaro interest you at all?

Paul Sporer: Not really, no

Paul Sporer: I just don’t dig catching prospects

Craig: Stanton would be a surprise 40HR guy this season

Paul Sporer: Not really. I know he’s never done it, but everyone knows he’s a healthy season away from 50

Diego: AL only Roto, keeping a $4 M. Andriese?

Paul Sporer: Borderline

Nick: Stroman or Salazar in 2017?

Paul Sporer: Salazar by a hair

Grizzly: who gets more saves for the Braves this season ? Jim Johnson, Vizcaino, other ?

Paul Sporer: Johnson. I kinda buy him if he’s pitching like he was down the stretch last year.

Ryan: How good is Willson Contreras gonna be?

Paul Sporer: Pretty darn good, .270-20-4 from behind the dish. 4 SB isn’t really moving the needle, but anything north of 0 from a C helps

A. Reitz: Nunez will be challenged by Hwang and Gillaspie…

Paul Sporer: Not worried about Gillaspie. Nunez can move to LF, too. Parker isn’t great.

Bored: Schoop or Tulo for middle infield spot?

Paul Sporer: Close, but I’ll take Schoop’s upside

Kenny: For Hosmer and other hitters who hit too many groundballs, is there a way to fundamentally change a swing to hit more flyballs? If he did, can he become a top 50 player?

Paul Sporer: I think we’re seeing more and more players start to elevate and learn about launch angles and all that via Statcast. I think that was a major factor in the HR surge so he could flip. But it takes a lot of work and if it doesn’t take right away, he’d likely fall back into hold habits

Ryan: Any optimism for Tyson Ross this season?

Paul Sporer: Not really. He’s not even returning until June. Come back in ’18

Schoop: Schoop or Franco in dynasty?

Paul Sporer: Franco, but they’re two of my favorite young bats

Joe: $14 Jose Ramirez or $10 Justin Turner (or neither) in a 12 team points league?

Paul Sporer: Both are fine at those prices. Think I lean Ramirez

Neal: Thanks Paul!

Paul Sporer: You’re welcome!

John : Is Max Kepler going to be a star? What kinda line can we expect from him in his peak?

Paul Sporer: A star, I’m not sure. But I think he’ll be a solid fantasy bat. Evolve into a .270-20-10

Sonny: Stashing one of Capps or Bedrosian in a 5×5 saves league?

Paul Sporer: Cam right now as Capps is still working back from TJ

Sonny: Marcel Ozuna’s 2016 is how much of his peak? He was streaky and had some health issues is it realistic to see much more there?

Paul Sporer: The health really derailed him. He was headed for a breakout before that. I’m still in – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/three-outfield-sleepers/

Yanny: are you a ceiling guy or floor guy in early rounds?

Paul Sporer: Usually more floor. I’m not trying to find the next big breakout in the first or second. Gimme boring ol’ superstar Miguel Cabrera

Ryan : Will Weapon X (Xander Bogaerts) ever hit 30 plus bombs?

Paul Sporer: Not sure he goes that high. Think he stays a low-20s guy with great AVG

Sonny: someone took Trea #1 somewhere, if you believe the power surge was real can you make the case? Those numbers plus 2B/SS/OF eligibility is tempting

Paul Sporer: No, that’s insane

Jake: Javy Baez: overrated due to playoff heroics/Cubs sheen, or just scratching the surface of what he can be?

Paul Sporer: Likely a bit overrated by the playoffs. Still plenty of upside, but I don’t think it all comes out in ’17

Ted: Keep 3: Springer, Goldy, Correa, Turner, and Villar

Paul Sporer: Goldy, Correa, Villar

Southpaw the fuzzy alligator : I am having trouble placing Harper this year. Part of me wants to take him like 3rd overall and believe in ’15, and that ’16 was all injury related. What take do you have on him? (I play in an OBP league)

Paul Sporer: I’d be OK with that, to be honest. I’m closer to 6-7 for him, but I fully support anything after 3 (Trout-Arenado are my 1-2 for sure)

Truckstop: Any AL Catchers we can target late?

Paul Sporer: Hmmmm…. not really. Ramos and take the missed the time early on? Maybe bet on a Yan Gomes rebound?

Southpaw the fuzzy alligator : How bad would it be to completely punt catcher? Never even putting a catcher in the C spot all year to protect rate stats (assuming you don’t get one of the top guys). The counting stat loss would still make it stupid right?

Paul Sporer: Can’t do that. The loss of counting would offset the AVG gains as you suggest. Gotta do something. Just play in that middle area – Vogt, Murphy, Castillo, Rupp, Norris

Hector: How much would you consider last-year overall rankings when comparing them to the next season’s pre-season rankings?

Paul Sporer: Not much. It’s just one year. I really try to look at three years and even then I’ll still make adjustments based on how I perceive the talent.

Minty: Listening to the latest Sleeper and Bust. 31 is way too high, but am I wrong to drool over Reyes in a keeper?

Paul Sporer: No, he’s a keeper gem, but redrafters are insane right now

Paul Sporer: that’s Alex Reyes, btw

Tony: Thoughts on Sean manaea?

Paul Sporer: Big fan! Put some thoughts in here: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/early-adp-thoughts-starting-pitcher-part-i/

Ant: We see players in all sports ball out in their free agency year, but does it work in baseball? Focus more? Work harder on details?

Paul Sporer: It’s an overrated notion in all sports. Outside of some outliers, the biggest change is that players are more likely to push through injuries and keep playing so they’re still accumulating numbers, even if they aren’t peak numbers.

Connor: Bold prediction: Seattle will be the 2017 AL Champs. What say you?

Paul Sporer: I won’t be projecting the same, but I don’t think it’s outlandish

LudeBurger: I hope no one is actually drooling

Paul Sporer: They have bibs

Babycakes: Top 3 veteran bats I can trust in the American League come auction day?

Paul Sporer: How about 5 instead? Altuve, Miggy, JD, Edwin, Cano

Dave: Dahl vs. Mazara, this year and the next 3?

Paul Sporer: for their costs, it’s gotta be Maz as he’s going way later. But in a vacuum, I prefer Dahl. Coors is just too great.

Ant: Pollock or Marte in 2017?

Paul Sporer: Marte

Paul Sporer: I didn’t marinate that long on the question, lol. Had to pull up my rankings

Southpaw the fuzzy alligator : Because you like Arenado so much do you believe in the higher walk rate?

Paul Sporer: I do and I just love the power and K% combo. Rarely see that. He’s going to have a .330 BABIP season, too, and hit >.300

Ryan : Think Benintendi is gonna ever hit 30 bombs?

Paul Sporer: He’s only 22 so I guess it’s possible, but I don’t think that’s his game. I see more of that Bogy skillset I mentioned earlier: low-20s, big AVG

Diego: AL only roto keeper, which side you got: $16 Semien or $22 Dyson and $8 Moncada? $5 per year inflation.

Paul Sporer: Semien. Think Dyson could lose his job to Bush

Terry: One year keeper, please rank: Neftali $1, Shawn Kelley $1, F. Rodney $12, Raisel Iglesias, $13?

Paul Sporer: Raisel, Kelley, Neftali, Rodney

Trainman: Chris Carter, how much would you bid for him ? I have miggy at 1B would love to get cheap power.. AL Only. I see a scenario where he gets 500 PAs, but Holliday would have to play RF everyday.

Paul Sporer: $5? Don’t think you’ll have to pay much – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-425-house-of-cards/

Iguana : Should I trade Soler for Maeda? Vacuum

Paul Sporer: I’m down for that

Iguana : Emergency: 7th keeper already keeping six hitters……Lester, Dahl, or Odor?

Paul Sporer: It’s Lester or Dahl for sure. I’d be OK keeping 7 hitters and just going HAM on pitching in the draft.

Jon KK: Scoresheet NL where prospects don’t count against crossover limits. Have to cut one of Giolito, Alfaro or Happ. Not proteting a C. I think it needs to be Happ?

Paul Sporer: Ya, probably so. I downed Alfaro earlier, but it’s different in Scoresheet so I get it

Tom: Seems like a lot of baseball smart guys look at BABIP like it’s something players cannot maintain… but if a player’s skill is hitting it hard like greater than 40%, why can’t BABIP remain high?

Paul Sporer: Well we just don’t see ANYONE maintain .400 BABIPs year to year so that’s probably why on that end, but I do find that fantasy managers way too often use BABIP as a luck-o-meter instead of actually looking at accompanying skills.

Paul Sporer: High line drive and groundball rates, espec. with speed, can maintain higher BABIPs for sure

Ryan: Back to the discussion of an empty C slot for a full season. Does it really hurt counting stats that much? Seems like having an extra player with multiple eligibility to rotate in and out when guys get the day off / have nagging injuries is a pretty good thing and makes up for the lost mediocre C at-bats.

Paul Sporer: Ya it does. Even if it’s only 40 R and RBI in the end, go look at your standings and see what that does. It most leagues, it’s several points

Iguana : Help! Another emergency! Last keeper…..Soler, Almora, Maeda? Ack!

Paul Sporer: maeda

Longball Jesus: Danny Duffy as good this year or better? (Don’t you dare say worse)

Paul Sporer: I love Duffy. Major control gains, development of a great pitch in the changeup. Needs to refine the command now – too many HRs – but this guy had star pedigree coming in and he’s showing why now

old spartan: Dynasty Point Keeper forever….Arenado (rd16) or Harper (rd17)?

Paul Sporer: Flip a coin, tbh

Paul Sporer: You have both? That’d be amazing.

Pick a Side: Keeper league with standard cats plus OBP/SLG and K/BB and K/9: Cruz and Hamels or Verlander and Pederson?

Paul Sporer: Love JV and Pederson, but I don’t think JV is so much better than Hamels to offset the Cruz/Joc difference.

Nasty N8: 12-team, 6×6 (AVG , OPS, K/9, QS). Keep three: Trout (duh), Story, MadBum, Villar.

Paul Sporer: Cut Trout for sure, obv. How is this a question. NEXT!

Paul Sporer: (cut Madbum, tbh. Gimme the 3 hitters)

Paul Sporer: Helluva quartet btw, that’s a tough cut. But I buy Story as a 30-15 and while you’re not finding a MadBum in the mid-rounds, you can piece a nice rotation together in the middle tiers

Tom: If Mike Trout decides to stop running as much and only steals 10 bases, is he still the top player in fantasy?

Paul Sporer: Keep in mind that he’s the #1 pick in large part because of his relative certainty of excellence as opposed to being the top fantasy stat line every year. He wasn’t tops last year, Betts was. But if he falls back on the SB like ’15 and goes 41/11, that’s still super elite.

Tony: Who ends the season as the rangers’ closer??

Paul Sporer: Bush

Connor: Robbie Ray’s nickname should be Robbie Rotten

Paul Sporer: He marries Bonnie and takes her name?

Brendan: Will Sano figure out his contact rate one of these seasons?

Paul Sporer: Probably not. His game is working counts and mashing the ball. That comes with swing and miss more often than not

Diego: Thank Paul, should have clarified its J. Dyson not S. Dyson

Paul Sporer: Ohhhh. I don’t think that greatly changes things, but I can’t remember every part of that Q now so if you wanna repost, that’d be cool, too

Matt: Explain why you are so high on Schoop. I’m not seeing it one bit. I have him as a strict avoid.

Paul Sporer: Pretty strong season at age-24. Has shown better plate skills in the minors, espec. w/K% so there could be some AVG upside. Doesn’t cost too much for .260-20-75-75 (that factors in some regression from ’16) with real upside

Paul Sporer: Dude crushes the ball when he’s on

Sandy: 15 team roto OBP league. $3, 4, 5 year inflation. Who you got Kepler at $3 or Alex Reyes at $2. Torn here.

Paul Sporer: Think I’d go Reyes here, even if it’s only to trade him to someone super hyped on him. Reyes’ upside is def higher

Manny: Players like Votto and Miggie have high floors while Trea Turner has high ceiling.. what would you consider Pollock? High floor or high ceiling?

Paul Sporer: Some are more middling and Pollock is one such player. I think we’ve seen his peak, but he could repeat it. The floor isn’t great, though, bc of his health

Brendan: Kang or Sano for last keeper in 12 team mixed?

Paul Sporer: Sano. Kang could face a suspension for his terrible decision making off the field

LudeBurger: Listen everyone, your teams are going to suck somewhere. Just accept it. – 2x League Champ

Paul Sporer: You do realize they’re here to ask questions, right? 🙂

Ted: Loved the Verlander renaissance last year. Is he a Top 10 SP this year?

Paul Sporer: Me too! Feel like I heard someone say he was ready to emerge again. 😉 — He’s going 10th off the board among SPs and I get it. I’m not in that early pool of SPs most drafts, instead waiting until the 5th or later, but if I were to dip in early, I’d be OK w/JV in the 3rd

Hector: Year after year I’ve won my league by drafting some great value in the middle rounds (Betts last year, Votto year before) – who do you see making a big Betts-like jump or something close?

Paul Sporer: Gregory Polanco

Ben: 10 tm Keeper in h2h with K/9 and OPS as 6th categories – which 2 you like? Verlander (rd 9), Sano (rd 22), hendricks (23) taillon (23)?

Paul Sporer: Just got done gushing over JV, but cost eliminates him. Gotta go Sano-Hendricks

Adam: (sending this again in case it got missed the first time) Wanted to get your thoughts on drafting 4 relievers in a H2H league: 2 closers and 2 Miller/Betances types? Make sense? Am I crazy?

Paul Sporer: I’m OK with it. I love the stud middle relievers at the right price and Betances’ finish has depressed his price in the market.

sam son: do you see James Paxton as fantasy stub, worth keeping in $260 draft at $12 with limited available pitching

Paul Sporer: yep, $12 works. I’m a Paxton fan – http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-leap-year-al-edition/

Rich: With hitting up across the board, does the old adage about ignoring pitching early still carry water? Seems like it might be getting more important to get a stud SP earlyish.

Paul Sporer: I can see the desire to lock down an early ace. I love the middle tiers this year, so I’m not bending over backwards for the superstars, but I don’t think you’re off base

jimmyrad: Your top 3 hitters parks after Coors?

Paul Sporer: Chase, NYY, Cincy, Camden? wanted to give 2 AL/2 NL.

Paul Sporer: that’s admittedly HR focused

Hmmm….: In my 11-team $260 AL-only, can I get away with bypassing a closer and starting the year with May, Bush, N. Jones and Thornburg?

Paul Sporer: You could, punting saves has some viability in an Only lg. It takes work, though, so be ready to be diligent in case your gambles all flop for SVs

Cory: Seems like everyone is writing off Felix for dead like they did Verlander a few years ago? Could he counceback like JV did and put up old King Felix numbers?

Paul Sporer: He’s lost a lot more velo than JV, but I get the general principle and agree that Felix is being ignored too much. He has enough secondary stuff to rebound and maybe he’d be best served to switch from fastball to cutter.

JT: Does Aledmys Diaz settle in as a .280ish, 15 HR type?

Paul Sporer: ya I can dig that

Ben: How bout Machado – what would you consider a reasonable SB projection for him this year? Hopefully last year isn’t permanent?

Paul Sporer: the tough part is that SBs are choice-based – by both the player and team. So if he doesn’t want to or they don’t want him to, we could see another goose egg. I’d project him for 8 though

LudeBurger: who in their right mind would pay $22 for Jarrod Dyson?

Paul Sporer: There’s some Jarrod hype out there based on the idea that SBs are hella scarce and he’s going to get more PT. I’m not really a fan

Southpaw the fuzzy alligator : Do you have any concern that Trout or Goldy stop running?

Paul Sporer: See above. But ya there’s always some concern. One nagging injury can put em on the red light immediately. Sometimes they are hurt to a level where they shouldn’t steal, but they can still do everything else. But you’re not drafting either thinking your SB are set, so just plan

LudeBurger: Paul, thank you for all the super fantasy analysis, both in chat, Twitter, and articles. You da man!

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much!

Paul Sporer: And you’re welcome

Hector: Would you personally rather draft out of the back end of a round (7th or 8th in 8-team league or 9th and 10th in a 10-team league) or at the beginning, and why?

Paul Sporer: In shallower leagues, I’d prefer the earlier picks so I can get one of the lockdown stars, but it’s not like you’re getting chopped liver 7th through 10th, so I’d be OK if I was back there. I like one of the ends, though. double picks are fun

JT: Who do you like better as a 2B/OF in 2017 – Zobrist or Drury?

Paul Sporer: I think I’m still taking Z, but Drury is really intriguing.

Paul Sporer: I did labor over that, hence the delay

Paul Sporer: Z is just so solid. Even at 36, I think he had a high floor

Diego: AL roto keeper with $5 inflation. $16 Semien or $21 J Dyson and $8 Y Moncada

Paul Sporer: Ok this was the one from earlier. Ya I can’t pay $21 for Jarrod even with Moncada (who I think plays 3+ months)

Manny: Follow up on ceiling vs floor… what player besides Trout has a high ceiling and high floor?

Paul Sporer: Arenado, KB, Goldy, Kershaw (even missing 50 IP, he was like 5th among SP last year on the player rater, I think), Those stable rocks still have upside, too – Miggy, Cano, Edwin, JD, Votto – no one would be surprised if they hit 15 pts higher with 5 more HR than last year.

ctw: triple slash keeper league where i already have trout/betts/marte. would you keep pollock or daniel murphy? pollock is younger and maybe better over next few years, but he’d be a UTIL for me and murphy could still be really good next year

Paul Sporer: I’d go Murph. Won’t get the SB of Pollock, but a great hitting line otherwise and you have spd with the other 3 OF

ctw: in a league that does saves and holds, would you rather keep a SP like carrasco/archer or a reliever like betances/jansen?

Paul Sporer: Gotta favor the SPs on that one

Mike: Standard 5×5 roto. Springer or Bregman. Head says Springer but I love Bregman. Already keeping Machado, Betts, Correa and Freeman. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: it’s tougher than most probably think. Springer going way higher in redrafts, but Bregman is legit. I’m still going Springer

Ron Gant: What’s Jose Peraza worth in an NL Only auction assuming he’s starting the year in his current utility man situation? And what’s the most you would pay?

Paul Sporer: Burners have a way of not needing so much PT to click (Rajai Davis, Jarrod Dyson, etc…) so I’d still go $teens for him. If he’s a major target for you, I could see saying $20 in the heat of an auction battle

Southpaw the fuzzy alligator : How would you feel about the All-Marlins outfield on your team?

Paul Sporer: I’d down for sure

Benson DuBois: Better NL closer keeper: $1 Neris or $11 Kelley? I have them both through ’18.

Paul Sporer: I think Benoit closes in PHI, but I’m just not hot on paying $11 for Kelley so I think I’d still spec on Neris, espec. w/’18 in play

Minty: Springer or Polanco in OBP?

Paul Sporer: Springer for sure

Bob: Hey Paul! I need to throw one back in a keeper league. Who do I throw back? Benintendi, JP Crawford, Dahl, Mazara, Yelich, A. Reyes, G. Sanchez.

Paul Sporer: Without knowing league details, I’m thinking Reyes. It’s Reyes or JPC for me and when it’s close, I’ll take the middle infield prospect

Eckstein123: Since there’s no SP guide this year, what do i win for beating Paul Sporer in NFBC last year?

Paul Sporer: Need to figure that out. Might still have something up my sleeve SP-wise, so I’ll get that figured. Can you email a reminder my last name at g mail?

Jeremy: There’s not a big market for Mike Napoli in my league, but I have him for a very cheap price (4 points in a 340-point league). What’s a reasonable line to expect for him? My main 1B is Joey Votto, so Napoli’d be just a DH, and I think I’d like to trade him.

Paul Sporer: .230/25 seems fine for that 4 pt cost

Robert: How much am I going to regret giving Swanson and Albies to get Carrasco and Justin Turner in my 20 team dynasty?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think too much, espec. after you win it all this year

El Duderino: Are you buying Heyward’s swing renaissance? How much would you pay in 12-teamer?

Paul Sporer: Gotta see something, but even before the swing rebuild, I wasn’t giving up on Heyward. Think you could get him under $10. I’d pay low-double digits if I had to, though.

Hector: Is there a specific expert/analyst that you weigh heavily more than others (or perhaps a guide/book)? Have you ever been to one of those First Pitch forums? What do you make of them?

Paul Sporer: I go to the First Pitch Forum in Arizona every November. It’s AMAZING. I love it. BaseballHQ.com’s Forecaster is always a must in terms of offline assets

Brendan: *still on the Sano train of thought, sorry* Does Sano have a Kris Bryant-level jump in production in him now or in the near future? Or is the Jack Cust projection still the most apt?

Paul Sporer: I don’t see that, but there could be some Chris Davis upside or a Chris Carter-plus

Mintberry Crunch: What’s your psn name

Paul Sporer: pjs1024 – identify yourself as someone from the chat if you add me or I won’t accept bc I don’t add randoms

LudeBurger: I am the LudeBurger! Hear me roar!

Paul Sporer: Y’all are missing Lude’s commentary on the chat. I can’t post all of em, but they’re rich

Danny: Wow this Zo vs Drury question really stumped you, huh

Paul Sporer: It did because I’ve been talking with some friends about Drury lately and getting more info. I see his upside, but I still like Z

Danny: Zo was the right answer. Congrats!

Paul Sporer: *fist pump*

Benny the Jet: 10tm H2H dynasty. Rather have Arenado and Bregman or Rizzo and Marte?

Paul Sporer: Arenado/Breg

Sam: Do you think Jose de Leon starts the season in the Rays rotation?

Paul Sporer: No, just not their style

Nelson: I stupidly dropped Gary Sanchez last season and now I’m paying for it in dynasty. But tell me why Greg Bird, player I’m keeping, could have a better long-term career than Sanchez.!!!

Paul Sporer: Not catching is the best answer I can give you here. Sanchez is in harm’s way behind the dish and gets his PT limited (though he could DH/1B on off days from the dish)

Ryan : Russell or Xander Rest of Career?

Paul Sporer: Russell!

TROUT2016: 5×5 Ottoneu: Would you rather target ~$75 Trout or ~$20 Rendon/Beltre + ~$45 Correa?

Paul Sporer: I’d probably go Rendon/Correa

Fricasee: Are you the grown-up Squints Palledorous?

Paul Sporer: yep – https://www.twitch.tv/psporer24

Q: Loving the Auction Calculator. Any chance of adding categories? I’d love to get QS put on the Points side (it’s already on root side). Also SV plus HLD (both listed separately). I can do the math myself if need be but those seem like easy adds (if anything is an easy add). Appreciate all your work.

Paul Sporer: I’ll mention it!

Omar: Is there a fangraphs headquarters where all the smart people share their minds?

Paul Sporer: No, there isn’t. That’d be cool, though

Guest: Who are you keeping if you have to pick between Sale and Kluber? (K, whip, OBA, ERA, QS)

Paul Sporer: Sale

Ron Gant: Thanks for answering Peraza question! And thanks for the marathon chat!

Paul Sporer: No problem. Gonna have to cut it v soon, but it’s been great!

Omar: what games do you mostly play on ps4?

Paul Sporer: I almost exclusively play MLB The Show. I dabble in NHL w/friends

James: Thoughts on AJ Reed? I’m in a 10 team keep-forever league (OBP and Total Bases), and thought he was a rare good-contact guy with power. But last year was anything but…

Paul Sporer: Undoubtedly rough debut, but only 141 PA and did still rake in AAA. Don’t completely give up.

Brinny : Brinson going to be a star?

Paul Sporer: Probably more of a fantasy star

Sam: More home runs this season: Miguel Sano or Giancarlo Stanton??

Paul Sporer: Stanton

OldManRoto: Oduel Herrera being underrated this year for fantasy? Showed real growth in walks and Ks at 24 years old. Think 15 HR 25 is repeatable? Some growth possiable?

Paul Sporer: I can see a repeat for sure. I like his price for sure, too

Ben: Joey bats’ current Yahoo adp is 107 – this is crazy isn’t it? Seems like an incredible bargain bet for a bounce back.

Paul Sporer: Ya I think he’s a solid gamble at that cost

Paul Sporer: OK, y’all. I gotta go

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much for hanging out!!

Paul Sporer: We’ll probably be at a tight hour next week, but you can reach me on twitter @sporer. If you play MLB the show, come on by my streams at twitch.tv/psporer24 and if you do snapchat, I’m at psporer. Bye!