Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – August 5th, 2020

Paul Sporer: Hey yall, what’s up? Let’s talk some baseball!!

Fazio: Paul, I traded away some SP to build a lineup full of studs and streaming pitchers. What is your thought on the bad starts and potential turnarounds for Bumgarner, Ray, Boyd and Minor?

Paul Sporer: I have some concerns about the two D’backs (though not enough to cut them right now) and feel like Boyd & Minor will be just fine.

Roy: Thoughts on Kingery as Phillies resume play? Been terrible so far this year in small sample, but has one of the biggest xWOBA underperformances

Paul Sporer: I’m barely moving on 11 game samples at this point so I can’t really do anything about 4 games

Vegan Man!: Cut DeJong in 12 team? IL filled with JV and Yordan, and Albies on IL on bench as well… thanks!

Paul Sporer: Hmm, if you have a starting SS and need to make a move, that’s OK in a 12-teamer

Chris: You buying into jp Crawford?

Paul Sporer: A bit, yes. Walking more, striking out less, and running. SS is super deep which makes it hard to declare him an all-formats guy, but I’m down to give him a shot where it fits

DH: In keeper leagues, is it worth waiting for talented but struggling relievers to turn around? Specifically thinking about Edwin Diaz, but it’s been very hard to find proper replacements on waivers as well.

Paul Sporer: In light of closing being an absolute mess at this point, I’m OK to just hang onto Diaz for a bit longer

Neal: Paul – Should Grisham’s hot start change our long term valuation of him, or too SSS? Related: Him of Franchy in 30 team std roto dynasty? Many thanks!

Paul Sporer: Grisham by a mile of Franchy even before Grisham’s hot start. The samples are still too small to go crazy over, but I’m just not a Franchy believer at this point

Vegan Man!: Musgrove a drop in 12 team? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: For who? I thought he was fine enough in the first two starts and then pretty unlucky against a ridiculously difficult Twins team. Keep him for the start v. DET this weekend at least

IDK: I want to pick up either Cobb (vsMIA), Dobnak (@PIT), or Houser (@CWS) for their start today, but would have to drop either Tucker, Hicks, or JP Crawford. I’m new to this so any advice would be helpful. Thank you for your time!

Paul Sporer: Dobnak and probably Crawford given the SS depth (even though I just said something nice about him)

Jim Leyland Palmer: Do you think we’ll see Turnbull overtake Boyd as the Tigers nominal ace (and main trade piece) by the end of the season?

Paul Sporer: I think they’re pretty similar and I’m not sure the Tigers will be looking to deal Turnbull at 27 and still under several years of control

Peter: Why the heck are the d’backs not giving Varsho a chance? Their line up stinks.

Paul Sporer: Their lineup has been wretched, but he’s also been up for a pretty short period of time. They still want their regulars to break out of their funk

Paul Sporer: Deleting the other Musgrove questions since I think I kinda covered it – ride it out through the Detroit start this weekend

Ray: 12 team roto, are you starting Dobnak or Richards tonight?

Paul Sporer: Dobnak for sure. Richards draws the Dodgers.

Chris: Is Justin Upton a must drop now that he’s in a time share? Calhoun, hicks, adell, cahna and Kyle tucker  are available in a points league

Paul Sporer: Ya with those guys available, I’m cool with it. Grab Adell while you can.

Vegan Man!: What are you doing with Paxton in 12 teamers? Benching for a start or 2? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I usually play my studs through the storm, but there are very few encouraging signs w/the velo down a ton and Ks plummeting so I’m down to sit him

Peter: so like who is Jake Cronenworth? Worth a flier in a 12 teamer? I picked him up today to replace Albies at 2B/SS

Paul Sporer: 12 is a little shallow especially since his playing time is limited w/Hosmer out. I guess ride him until the weekend when Hosmer returns and go from there

Big Tuna: How concerned are you about Eugenio Suarez?

Paul Sporer: Not at all

Chris: In a points redraft league would you rather have urias or may as your starting reliever? Do you like one, both or neither in general for 2020?

Paul Sporer: I prefer Urias, but they’re close

Holland: Is Betances still a viable option in 13 team saves and hold league? What about Castillo?

Paul Sporer: Ya with Holds, they both are

Raul: Is Encarnacion (bum shoulder) droppable in 15 team mixed?

Paul Sporer: I’d wait to see if it’s an IL stint coming. Who would you get in his place?

beguiled: What’s your take on a commissioner that changed minimum faab bid from $1 to $0 last night? Coincidentally (?) same commissioner has the lowest total budget remaining at 45%.

Paul Sporer: Awful and simply cannot be done. Absolute joke.

daro: Dylan Carlson will be up soon? or maybe Andrew Vaughn?

Paul Sporer: I’d *think* so on Carlson soon. Vaughn maybe if EE goes to the IL

Tim: Polar Bear concern on a scale of 1-10? Sophomore slump is one thing but he looks downright lost. There’s so much upside though so its tough to do anything but hold and hope

Paul Sporer: 2 — I found him overdrafted to begin with, but I don’t think he’s going to be terrible

Tim: Are you holding Paxton? Dustin May is available and after last night, I’m tempted to leave Paxton in the dust and roll with May

Paul Sporer: Definitely get May, but I’d think you have someone else to cut besides Paxton.

RAH: Is Adam Frazier any good? Or Kevin Newman? Or any Pirates?

Paul Sporer: Meh. Josh Bell & Bryan Reynolds are pretty good, but the rest doesn’t really do much for me

Quadrangular: this season is so short, it’s daunting to consider making up ground at this point. I always tell myself during regular seasons “it’s a marathon, not a sprint,” but this is an outright 100-meter dash, and we’re already 15%-20% of the way through (depending on which real life teams your players are on). how are your teams doing thus far? are you in any keeper/dynasty leagues? if so, are you competing or just focusing on 2021?

Paul Sporer: My only keeper league setup a second standalone league to run this year on the side and we essentially paused our keepers

Taximan: 12-team NL only Bote, Croneworth, Edwin Rios, Naylor ROS?  I need to bring back Segura and hopefully Luis Urias soon

Paul Sporer: I favor Rios & Bote and then Cronenworth & Naylor behind ’em

Big Tuna: Every time I add a closer he gets hurt or loses his job. This blows

Paul Sporer: Closing is the worst it’s ever been

Peter:

 

Derrick S. Goold

@dgoold

 

Kwang Hyun Kim is joining the rotation. #stlcards

5 Aug 2020

thoughts?

Paul Sporer: From a fantasy standpoint, it’s fine. I think given what I just said, most would’ve rather he close, but I think he can be fantasy relevant as a starter

Smokin Lowed: Hey Paul, you see Manaea turning it around or is the velo dip too much to overcome? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I think he’ll be OK (high-3.00s/low-4.00s ERA). Velo matches last year when he had that awesome small sample. I’m not crazy about him, but I’m not cutting him off those first two starts

Dude: Is Polanco done? He’s K’ing constantly. Virus, or something else/

Paul Sporer: Looks super rough so far. I think he can be cut in most formats as there’s likely a reasonable OF option worth grabbing

Mike Hawk: Reyes slot in as closer in STL?

Paul Sporer: Not over Gallegos or Helsley, not yet at least

Getting Merc’ed: Appreciate your words of patience with Matt Olson. What about another of your boys, Oscar Mercado? The Dentist is supposedly coming back.

Paul Sporer: It’s been unquestionably rough for him, but it’s not like he’s striking out a ton. Hits just aren’t falling yet

Paul Sporer: And The Dentist isn’t going to take a ton of his time, IMO

Chad: Thoughts on Benintendi? Dropped in my12 team Roto league.

Paul Sporer: They might’ve read my article lol https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/hitters-available-under-40-cuttable-at-6…

Cito’s Mustache: Would you hold Karinchak? I could drop him for Sulser or Hudson for SV.

Paul Sporer: Get Hudson. Hand isn’t done yet

Oh Singerman: Brady Singer has been a mixed bag: some k’s, some HRs. Would you start Sunday vs. MIN in AL only? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: There are guys far better than Singer that I wouldn’t start against that behemoth, so no, gotta sit

Yusei Yes, I Say Kikuchi: Time to give up on Josh James? Would you drop in a 12-teamer for Mahle, Pablo Lopez, or Yusei?

Paul Sporer: Any of the 3 and in that order

Fazio: do you think the loss of Betts is impacting Devers? Do you think Devers season last year will be his career year or do you think it’s repeatable/better to come?

Paul Sporer: Not overwhelmingly, but his departure undoubtedly impacts the lineup

Judge: Why would anyone pitch to Aaron Judge right now?

Paul Sporer: Have you seen the rest of their lineup? Hard to just BB him constantly

Saul Porer: Voth or Mahle, or not different enough to matter?

Paul Sporer: No, def Mahle

brad: Paul, thoughts on surging 2B, Solano SF and Alberto Balt? Which to do believe more in?

Paul Sporer: Probably Alberto a bit more now that he’s hitting righties – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/10-tidbits-week-of-august-4th/ — they’re not SUPER different, but there’s a case that Solano is just BABIP dependent while Alberto makes a ton of contact and has even shown a little HR pop (very little, but still)

Casey: When do you sumMIZE that i’ll be up?

Paul Sporer: lol surMIZE …. but man it’s sooo hard to say. prospect call ups are harder than ever. I just don’t have a good guess so I’m reluctant to even try a date

King Donko of Punchstania: Varsho or Jansen this year and beyond (OBP league)?

Paul Sporer: gotta go Jansen with playing time. I’d like Varsho if he was playing regularly, but until that happens, I gotta go Jansen

Mark: James Karinchak or Nick Anderson. Who would you rather have for this year?

Paul Sporer: Anderson

Porcho Villa: Who do you like better for rest of season– Olson or Bell?

Paul Sporer: Olson

Rick: How do you think Happ looks rest of the way? If you would try and sell if you could?

Paul Sporer: No, I’m huge on Happ. I buy him as a badass fantasy contributor

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!