Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – August 31st, 2022

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, everyone! Thanks for coming out, let’s talk some baseball!!

ScottTINSTAAPP: Trying to join your Main Event league winners club this year and we’re almost there! Would not have believed that we’d be top 15 in the overall while starting Albert Pujols but here we are! Albert has been legit awesome, it’s sweet

Paul Sporer: Let’s goooo!!! My September sweat was the single greatest and most stressful month of fantasy baseball I ever played! I’m in the hunt for a cash this year, but 1st is a looongshot with Scott “Stryker” Jenstad running our league. Bring it home, Scott!

T: If ROTY was an ML-wide award, who do you think would win?

Paul Sporer: Not a definitive winner right. J-Rod, Adley, and the 2 Braves – Strider/Harris all would have amazing cases. I’d vote J-Rod personally

Tim: I am not great at managing Ohtani on my cbs team. Hard to read the app and figure out where to play him (DH/SP). What level of player would you expect in a trade for Ohtani in a weekly league? (Limit of 5 keepers.)

Paul Sporer: Top of the scale. You should essentially have your choice of the field or I wouldn’t move him

Tim: I’ve complimented you on this before, but I really appreciate how you repeat the names of players when talking about them on the pod. For many podcasts, I have to constantly rewind to remind myself who they are talking about. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Thank you so much! As an avid pod listener myself, I’ve been there with the consistent rewinds to remember who “he” is after 5-6 pronoun references and I understand the conversational way you slip into pronouns after the initial reference, but sooo many ppl are doing other things while listening that there HAS to be multiple references to the name. So I make it a priority and I’m glad that y’all are seeing the value, ty!

CageyVet: Thoughts on Gunnar?

ScottTINSTAAPP: All things being equal would you prioritize Henderson or Carroll this weekend in FAAB? I’ll throw in Jung too if he’s up before Sunday, you have a preference between them?

Paul Sporer: Need more than just “Thoughts on Gunnar” as it’s far too vague. No league context. Generally speaking, I like him, but that’s no more helpful than the original Q. Not trying to be rude here, either, just pointing out that I need more for a legit good answer

Paul Sporer: Such as Scott’s example. I’m still leaning Carroll, but it’s 100000% standings-based right now. So your team context should drive your order with Carroll being my lean if I’m hot after SBs, Gunnar if I’m more pwr-focused, and Jung if I have major AVG upside in my standings while also getting some pop from him

jackal: what is a good comp for Corbin Carroll?  Do you think he is comparable to Mookie Betts?

Paul Sporer: Perfect world outcomes would be in that Betts/Trea Turner range, yes. Maybe some Pirates Starling Marte flavor initially as we see how the power develops. TONS of upside for sure, I love Carroll

Kyle: We have expected stats for everything, so why don’t we have xWHIP? Wouldn’t that just be xBA and BB%? Would seem useful for evaluating pitcher efficiency.

Paul Sporer: That is interesting that hasn’t been any try at xWHIP. Some combo of xBA/BB% like you say would likely be the foundation. Maybe team defense would factor in too? Above my paygrade but definitely intriguing

Walker Texas Ranger: What do you think about Nate Lowe the last month? Do you see anything to indicate a sustainable breakout vs. a hot streak?

Paul Sporer: I was a big Lowe fan coming into the year so I’ve been pleased with his excellent campaign. He has been a stone cold stud v. lefties (he’s a lefty, too, making it that much more impressive!) with a .970 OPS. My big thing with drafting him this year was that I’d gladly take a repeat, but if he found some extra loft, there could be a power breakthrough and that’s what we’ve gotten with a 9 pt dip in GB rate netting a 46 pt jump in ISO and already 4 more HR than he hit all last yr with a month to go!

El Guapo: Corbin Burnes and Aaron Nola taking a fat shit on my H2H playoffs. Why do I do this to myself instead of just playing roto?

Paul Sporer: I was talking about both on my stream this morning and how devastating those are for folks down the stretch w/H2H folks taking the major brunt of that. This game can be SO rough sometimes!!

Kyle: Paul, great philosophers made their living on questions like “thoughts on happiness?”, “thoughts on justice?”, etc. so you can too! /sarcasm

Paul Sporer: LOL, great point!!

CageyVet: Would you cut Gleyber for Gunnar?

Paul Sporer: What size league?

Matty Matt: O/u on combined home runs will the Padres and Giants hit during their Mexico City series?

Paul Sporer: That should be fun. Let’s assume 3 games… I’ll set the early line at 14.5 HRs over the series

Matty Matt: Is Whit Merrifield droppable in a dynasty OBP league? Options include Oscar Gonzalez, Dylan Carlson, Jake Fraley, Lane Thomas, Jo Adell.

Paul Sporer: Yes, he barely plays and has a terrible OBP. I’d go Fraley or Carlson (I know he’s been rough but I’m not out on him). Loooved Fraley coming into the season and injury was the major derailment

Zac: Any long-term worries on Acuna?  It seems like he’s been dealing with little injuries all year and doesn’t fully trust his knee.

Paul Sporer: Not too worried long-term. I expected ups and downs this year and avoided him because of it. Not saying that fade was correct, either, as his 10 HR/25 SB output in 91 games is excellent, but I just didn’t want the risk given the price was still sky-high. If it’s another year like that in 2023, I’ll start to have some longer term concerns

Gonna Start a WAR: Who do you like better for dynasty, J-Rod or Tatis? Tatis is already there from a performance standpoint, but there’s a ton of risk with poor decision making that has led to injuries and suspensions. J-Rod is showing some potential, but hasn’t quite reached the stratosphere that Tatis is in.

Paul Sporer: JRod for sure. I don’t think TOO far ahead in dynasty leagues so gimme the guy who’s playing when it’s already close

Rick: Would have never asked this question in the beginning of the year, but Vinnie or Torkelson in dynasty?

Paul Sporer: I’m still with Tork. This year sucked, no two ways around it, but I’m nowhere near quitting him!

EVERYBODY: #FreeStoneGarrett

Paul Sporer: Right? But they’re loaded at OF: Carroll, Thomas, Garrett, Varsho, McCarthy all deserving of PT. I know Thomas hasn’t been great, but you can’t bury him in his rookie year so it’s a tough situation

Bubba Thompson Stan: Who will lead MLB in SB’s for the foreseeable future and why will it be Bubba?

Paul Sporer: I have been SO pleased with his returns thus far! If he can maintain an OBP around the .324 we’ve seen this year, he can be an absolute SB monster

Jay T: Is Bo Naylor still in the minors because he’s not able to contribute as much as the two catchers on the big league roster?

Paul Sporer: Hedges just has SUCH a great reputation defensively and they actually have some offense this year so they can afford his 0 at the dish a bit more and then Maile has been a perfectly solid backup. Naylor is a MUCH better hitter than both but I don’t think he’s great at catching and I doubt they want to have a new C learning the pitchers in a pennant chase

Jack: Other than Benintendi having a bit more speed and Winker more power, in a vacuum who would you want in a keeper league?

Paul Sporer: I’m fully out on Winker in Seattle

Broken Bat: Duran of Twins or Munoz of Seattle next big thing? Or is it Hesley of Cards?

Paul Sporer: It’s Helsley for me as he has the actual job right now. I think Duran enters with it next year and Muñoz could do, but they might prefer him as the fireman with Sewald closing. I’d take Helsley like 4th at CL after Diaz, Clase, Romano

Case for Casas: Hi Paul, will the Sox call up Casas and let him play? Do the Dodgers give Vargas enough ABs to be fantasy-relevant? Thanks again.

Paul Sporer: Casas should get the call for expansion. I don’t see the PT for Vargas with Muncy back on track lately

Sean: Gunnar starting at 3B tonight. Do you know how many games at 3B in Yahoo it will take to get 3B eligibility?

Paul Sporer: 5 starts or 10 games

Sean: What should we be looking for in Kirby to get ahead of a ramp/shut down? Pitch count per game?

Paul Sporer: It’s gonna be tough to plan for if they don’t telegraph it. A start like yesterday seemed ripe to shave an inning or 2 off if they were rolling and they trounced Manning so Kirby only needed 5. I obviously wouldn’t sit him in easy matchups, but the easier matchups might be a little less fruitful if they go as planned and the M’s get him a big lead. Just have reinforcements on the bench in case he gets skipped or pushed back and you can plan for it, but otherwise think we just have to roll him out and take what we get

Jared: Thoughts on Bobby Witt Jr.’s season? Do you think this could be the floor for him or do you think he will be up and down throughout his career?

Paul Sporer: Great fantasy season! I set the minimum pick on him at the time when I took him 46th in my Main Event and I don’t regret it one bit! He’s 26th on the Razzball Player Rater so even the eventual minimum of 30 that someone else set has worked out. The slash line isn’t great especially that .292 OBP but I can definitely see improvement there. Prospect growth isn’t linear so he could dip down a bit next year if the OBP doesn’t improve, but long term he is a superstar in the making!

Sean: Does McCullers just need more time to get ramped up? Would you start him @ LAA with that elevated park factor? Where would you rank him ROS, top 50? Top 40?

Paul Sporer: Yeah he’s only 3 starts in so he’s probably not 100% comfortable and back yet, but at least he’s had a nice ERA while he figures things out. I’d start him at LAA and he’s a Usually Start guy for me (rarely sitting him) – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-updated-starting-pitcher-ra…

Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes: Whose changes do you buy more ROS (and next year if you like)? Voth with the change of scenery or J Suarez with the pitch mix change

Paul Sporer: I liked Voth in WAS so seeing him find his footing in BAL has been encouraging to me. I’m in on Suarez, too, though, so pardon me for essentially choosing both. Suarez has been using his SL at a 21% clip over his last 11 starts, netting a 17% K-BB, 3.48 ERA, and 1.19 WHIP in that time. If you have to choose between ’em, play the schedule in the short-term which would favor Suarez who gets DET next wk while Voth gets BOS

Freshbasil: Bubba Thompson or Garret Mitchell for steals the rest of the way?

Paul Sporer: Thompson

Paul Sporer: Mitchell is speedy, too, but doesn’t have anywhere near the SB track record in the minors

Armadillofury: What’s behind Mountcastle’s underperformance compared to statcast? It’s not just that abomination of a LF in Camden Yards – he’s been worse away from home

Paul Sporer: Combo of the ball and wall move. The squish ball has eaten up a lot of 45/50 grade power guys. He has lost a ton of ISO home and away as you mention it isn’t just the wall and the rest is owed to this trash ball the game is using this year. We haven’t talked about the lack of offense much since May but that’s not bc it changed, probably more bc we got tired of it. The summer has not quelled the issues and August has been particularly bad. Justin has talked on the pod throughout the year about these mid-tier power guys taking the biggest hit by the ball and you can definitely see it in so many spots. Mountcastle getting saddled w/that wall move in addition to the squish ball has been BRUTAL

Don’t Swallow the Cap: I’m guessing Bellinger gets non-tendered after this year ($20M? yuck). Depending on where he goes in real-life and fantasy drafts, do you see bounceback potential or are you out on him altogether?

Paul Sporer: Not a super satisfying answer, but it’s 100% price dependent. Agree that they can’t pay him $20 mil so they might negotiate something cheaper to keep him around, but regardless of where he plays, I need to know the price. I think his ADP has to start with a 2, right? Or laaate 100s at the most. Around there, I could be interested, but I’m not seeking him out for a bounceback right now

Yuniesky Betancourt: Rank ROS in standard 5×5 H2H? E. Cabrera, Civale, Manning, M. Kelly

Paul Sporer: Schedule should be playing a larger role here so I recommend mapping that out for the next 2-3 starts. Generally speaking on talent, I had Cabrera 54, Civale 86, Manning 106, and Kelly 75 in my last ranking. I’d have Civale closer to the Kelly in a ranking re-run, but otherwise the same general ranking with the final decisions being driven by schedule

comish4lif: What’s the outlook for Mike Toglia in Colorado for the rest of the way? Will they give him a legit look at 1B/DH? Or are the Rockies going to Rockie it up?

Paul Sporer: Having OF elig., they shouldddd be able to avoid Rockie-ing it up too much lol. There are 13 games left in Coors and I’d be down to see what he can do there, but he’s no lock to perform rest of season. A 30% K rate in the minors means he could be 33-35% in the majors so it could be grim off rip. Even if he matches his 30% MiLB rate, that’s still high in the majors.

They close with 3 at SF and 6 straight at LAD (not a typo) so I’m planning to cut most Rockies on 9/25 with Cron & Blackmon as the only exceptions I’m considering (but they aren’t even locks with matching 88 wRC+ totals on the road this yr).

Sean: Are you starting Berrios vs PIT? Am I crazy?

Paul Sporer: I am, yes. If I can’t start him v. PIT, I gotta cut him

Mike: Would you start Mahle @ CHW first game back from IL?

Paul Sporer: Generally, yes. Team context matters SOOO much for all September decisions, though, so if you’re protecting ratios, sit this one out and let him get one under his belt

Mike: Has yandy diaz changed anything in his approach to warrant this hot streak in your mind? I like that he’s batting leadoff. Considering picking him up in my 10 team

Paul Sporer: Getting the ball in the air more with a 7 pt dip in GB rate paired with some good ol’ run hot! While he is only pacing for 16 HR in a full season during this hot streak (.906 OPS in last 227 PA), the slash line of .311/.401/.505 is wonderful w/the R and RBI being the major draws for fantasy as both are pacing over 100 for a full season during this run (33 RBI, 34 R)

Jake Mac: Is Jake mccarthy a 10 team guy if you need steals or is outfield too deep?

Paul Sporer: He is playing like a 10-team viable OF in August! Keep an eye on the PT now that Carroll is up as that could be the tough part for a 10-teamer and I don’t know who else is available, but I’m not averse to picking him up right now

KC: Pratto is looking really good of late. I feel like he got a little forgotten with all the Vinnie P hype. Is this a short-term blip or can Nick keep this up ROS in September?

Paul Sporer: He can absolutely keep it up. The cool name and out of nowhere hype of Vinnie P definitely pushed him over Pratto in the fantasy consciousness, but Pratto is the markedly better prospect. Both can be absolute studs and I’m in on both for the rest of the season and 2023!

McKittrick: What’s up with Giolito? Worth holding in a 12 teamer where I have good SP depth? I keep rolling him out there for favorable matchups and he keeps crapping the bed.

Paul Sporer: The tough part is the lack of a smoking gun. It seems to be something different every game. Fastball command one night, off speed stuff another, and then hanging breakers in yet another. Has to be maddening for Gio, too. I’ve been reluctant to cut him but I understand not starting him every time out. Even if you pass v. MIN this weekend, we gotta go with him at OAK next week. I’d be OK treating that start as a do-or-die, though. If he gets got at OAK, I’d be down to cut and just check back in for ’23

Clayton Kershaw: Would you activate and start me tomorrow @Mets or wait and see how tomorrow goes first? I’m torn!

Paul Sporer: I tend to start the superstars right away so I’d go for him, but I understand the trepidation at NYM. If you’re in tight ratio races where 5-6 ER would REALLYYYY sting you, I can see playing it safely, but otherwise I’m going for it

LAA: You like Herget for SV for the Angels?

Paul Sporer: Loved it! I have a few great body comps in the bigs and he joined the list this year! Triston McKenzie is my #1 (outside of 1 obvious difference) at the same height/weight, but Herget really completes the Sporer look with the glasses!

Sean: Is pomeranz the closer in waiting in SD if hader doesnt get it together? And if hader does, pomeranz the 8th inning guy?

Paul Sporer: Upon his return you mean? I’d be surprised if Pomy was thrust into the role. I think Nick Martinez could hold it rest of season, tbh

Sean: Feel like I have to replace javy baez in my 10 at 2B. Gleyber, india,  profar, chris taylor, urias and gorman all available. Favorite ROS?

Paul Sporer: I’m totally OK cutting Baez in 10s. I’d probably go Gleyber but that group is pretty close so maybe let your standings dictate who you go for

Jimmy: Paul – ever play in a H2H league where there is one guy who always seems to get the worst week from his opponent? We have a manager, currently in 2nd place, who’s opponents just don’t show up on a week to week basis. He’s league average to below average in almost all categories, yet he has won two times in the last 4 years! Teams just roll over dead when they play him. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills! No question, just absolutely frustrated.

Paul Sporer: It is NUTSSS when it happens for a whole season! It just seems so statistically impossible and yet if you play enough H2H you will see it (I’ve seen it a bunch in football since that’s almost exclusively H2H), but yeah it’s maddening unless you’re that guy for the year lol.

Guy Incognito: Do you only see the question asker’s name (that they chose) or do you see who they through their IP address, etc? I like to change up my name depending on the question, but maybe I shouldn’t!

Paul Sporer: I just see the name

Paul Sporer: But I don’t really focus on it and you will see sometimes that I answer Qs from the same name in multiple questions so don’t worry about trying to change up

KC: Matt Manning got BLOWED up hard last night. Slider wasn’t cutting. Was last night an aberration or was he due to come back down to Earth?

Paul Sporer: Yeah that slider had been killing it during his surge and then last night he was storing planes because it was hangers all night (I know it’s hangar… shut up, lol!). He gets B2B v. KC and at KC, so I’m still starting him

Paul Sporer: Sorry had to let the dogs out

OkBlueJays: You should come visit Toronto sometime in the Summer. Lots of fun, I think you’d like it!

Paul Sporer: I’d LOOVE to get up there and check out a Jays game, too!

Jack: Would you value a closer like Martinez over Helsley if you are looking for saves? Helsley has the talent but the Cards deployment is frustrating

Paul Sporer: I’d still go Helsley. They have a legit 1b (to Helsley’s 1a) closer in Gallegos (who I loved this year as many will remember) but Helsley got 4 Ws and 3 SVs in August while Martinez only got one extra SV without those wins! Go for the better guy on the better team. If you can ADD Martinez to Helsley, go for that, but not Martinez over Helsley

Dubs In 6: Does Harold Ramirez make the all under the radar team? I see no love there.

Paul Sporer: Yes, he does! He and Yandy Diaz have those profiles that often get overlooked. AVG-first profiles where neither HR or SB are a standout category regularly stay a bit under the radar

Todd: What makes Pratto a markedly better prospect than Pasquantino?

Paul Sporer: Fair question, I was referring specifically to prospect lists. Pratto was a top 100 guy while Vinnie P was not. Pedigree was the key driver I’d imagine with Pratto being a 1st rounder and Pasquantino an 11th. But I’d have to go through the prospect profiles to see where the split was between ’em.

Insert Witty Name Here: In a shallow 8 team league, I have Yordan and Robert on the bench because they haven’t hit the IL. Are they too good to drop? Replacement options are Ketel, Verdugo, and Teoscar.

Paul Sporer: I could do Robert for Teoscar, but that’s about it. Frustrating to miss them and not be able to IL ’em, but I’m definitely holding Yordan

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!