Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – August 30th, 2019

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon! Welcome to my weekly chat, let’s roll!

Jeff: H2H Pts League where Playoffs are 3 weeks, total score wins (can change lineup weekly) – any advice on strategy here or just keep doing what I’ve been doing all season?

Paul Sporer: Maybe dial up how much you play the schedules. If there are some 7-games v. 5-gamers, maybe player a less talented 7-gamer over a 5-gamer… within reason. Not like sitting Bregman for Leury Garcia or some shit.

Chas: Paul, do you find Taylor Swift’s “Lover” a nice return to form after her ostentatious hard-edge turn in “Reputation?”

Paul Sporer: She puts out some bops, but overall I’m pretty meh on her

seth r: traded cheap hiura for unkeepable blackmon, mallex, hendricks, and fowler–flags fly forever right?

Paul Sporer: Hell yes, bring home that title!

DonJulio: How should I think about starting Reynaldo Lopez in the playoffs, H2H?  Since his velo spiked he has been overall OK. But starting a guy with a 5 era makes me uneasy.

Paul Sporer: You’re starting him understanding it can go horribly, but I love the skills over his last 9 including 52 Ks and 18 BBs in 54.3 IP. If he keeps the ball in the yard, he’ll remain successful IMO

Greg: Thoughts on Aquino for 2020? Should I definitely keep him over Caleb Smith in an NL-Only?

Paul Sporer: I would keep the hitter over pitcher for sure, especially one with Smith’s health profile. I feel like he’s at least Franmil Reyes, right? (30-something HRs, .240s AVG)

Kyle: Hi Paul! Thanks for the chat as we head into the final stretch. Keep on grinding! Are you really close to getting a flag in any of your leagues this year?

Paul Sporer: I appreciate y’all coming out! I have a couple contenders, including a very competitive 10-team H2H. I was never a big H2H leaguer, but I joined this lg last year and I’ve really come to enjoy it. Eager for the playoffs. Meanwhile, I have a couple roto teams ranging 3rd to 7th depending on the day.

One specifically does have a shot at 1st, the other 2 would probably take a miracle to win, but should cash. Still bummed my Main Event was a total dud despite some quality picks and a lot of effort, but I’ll be back at it again next year.

ThickTanPretzel: Dex Fowler’s been hot. He’s a top ___ OF for September (OBP league)

Paul Sporer: Top 50.

Dave: John Berti– batting leadoff (for Miami, but still…), and has had a good last month. His Baseball Savant page doesn’t make it look like he’s been vastly over-performing… anything there?

Paul Sporer: Ya he’s likely helping some contending teams as an injury replacement “glue guy”. Nothing is stand out, but he’s doing a bit of everything, including 8-for-9 on the bases, and doing so atop an order as you mention

Dan: Where do you think danny santana goes in drafts in 2020? Late career breakout, but he’s been a 5-category contributor and should have the PT next year.

Paul Sporer: Maybe the 150-200 range. I don’t think it’ll be fully trusted so he could be a bargain if you buy in

DonJulio: If Giolito gets one start vs Minn in a H2H playoff week, you still need to start him, right?

Paul Sporer: 100%. You cannot bench him.

Chas: I’ve Kyle Tucker in an inactive slot. If he comes up, do I drop one of Schwarber, Franmillionaire or D. Santana for him? Or drop Tucker?

Paul Sporer: I’d probably check schedule setup between Schwarber and Franmil as they’re essentially the same

Dan: Is dylan cease just bad?

Paul Sporer: Hardly the first rookie to get blitzed in his debut. And his skills are still better than anything his teammate Lucas Giolito did in the lead up to this year’s breakout. I’m not saying Cease will flip the switch like that, but no, I’m not writing him off as simply bad based on 52 IP

TP: Thoughts on Nick Solak for 2020?

Paul Sporer: Gives me a Brandon Lowe vibe w/a bit better plate profile (lower K, more BB)… I’m going to be eyeing him

Dan: Does a fantasy analyst need to have success in his leagues in order for you to trust his/her analysis?

Paul Sporer: Y’all would probably be better to answer that. However, you’ll quickly run out of ppl to trust if you eliminate them once they have a bad season

Mick: What’s up with Ryu?  Continue to pay him, bench, drop?

Paul Sporer: He has 3 bad starts this year… 2 of them have been his last 2, but even in those he has 11 K and 2 BB in 9 IP. I think it’d be a remarkable amount of over-managing to cut or bench.

Ugueth Urbina’s Machete: Are leagues going to be decided by what team doesn’t get 1 or 2 relatively reliable pitchers bombed in a playoff week? The year seems incredibly less skillful with this dynamic.

Paul Sporer: Could be and I understand what you’re saying, but I think that’s just a dynamic we accept in H2H regardless of the environment.

Andrea’s Fault: Is Brandon Woodruff still worth an IL stash at this point? I’m having a sudden crush on my two IL spots–thanks, Muncy and Urshela! (Waiting on Laureano, too.)

Paul Sporer: No, I think you have to move on in your scenario. I was treating Woodruff as a hold until it became untenable, for you it’s untenable

Ugueth Urbina’s Machete: Paul! Help! My team won the regular season by 24 games, got the 1st round bye but haven’t been hitting for 3 weeks. Do I launch the guys who got me there or ride the horses I came in on?

Paul Sporer: I’m inclined to stick with my guys unless they are truly viable replacements on the wire. I can’t imagine you can remake your entire offense on the fly

ILH: 7×7 keep 5 players forever league, traded Gary for Hiura this year, how’d I do?

Paul Sporer: I can get behind that. Fair deal for both.

Paul Sporest: should willie calhoun be owned down the stretch in a 10 team h2h, redraft, basic 5×5

Paul Sporer: I’d say so, yes. Even in 3 OF, I think he’s at least a UT

DW: Does Dustin May get another start after Sunday??  Hang on, or replace him with Framber Valdez??  Also, I have to drop Robles, Kennedy, Bradley or Lugo.  Your choice?

Paul Sporer: May is penciled in while Valdez is inked in, so I think it comes down to how much you NEED the start. Think I’d lean toward Valdez. I don’t think at TOR is *easy* with the Baby Jays rockin atop the lineup, but it’s still better than at ARI in my opinion

Matt: Looking at keepers for 2020, how would you rank the following players assuming all keeper costs are even in a 12tm mixed H2H that includes total Hits, total Walks, and OBP on top of normal 5×5: Pham, Bichette, Aquino (Already have Yelich, Acuna, Bogaerts, and Devers locked in as keepers)

Paul Sporer: I think you ranked them as listed. Love The Punisher (Aquino for those unfamiliar with his nickname), but he’s gotta be third there, especially with Pham & Bichette being able to run (I read this as a categories H2H)

CC: Would you be starting Dustin May (assuming he starts) or Mitch Keller in H2H playoffs? Deep 16 team league

Paul Sporer: That’s tough bc I want Keller v. MIA, but I’m scared v. STL. He seems to either be great or utter trash: 6, 6, 2, 1, 6, 1, 8 ER … is it points or categories for the H2H? If it’s points, I think I’ll roll the dice w/Keller

ThickTanPretzel: Can you help me understand what Yarborough is doing differently? He’s been lights out for almost two months.

Paul Sporer: Kitchen sink junker. Perhaps the craziest aspect of his run is that he has just a 64% LOB rate. Of course, if you don’t allow base runners, you don’t really need to strand em. He requires more than a chat can truly allow, but I think he’s one of those guys where you smoosh his two seasons and use that avg as a baseline (3.67 ERA/1.10 WHIP/15% K-BB)

DynastyStarter: In my dynasty, I shouldn’t care about losing Pablo Lopez, Logan Webb, and others like them if it means winning $ right? Churning through streamers, but itshonna cost me possible future value

Paul Sporer: This is peak flags fly forever and I understand it can be even rougher in dynasty, but you gotta get that pennant!

Logan: Dynasty points league, would you trade Berrios for Corey Seager and Sixto?

Paul Sporer: I would indeed, even with some overall trepidation on Corey Seager I still prefer the hitter to pitcher plus you’re getting an intriguing young arm

TRAAAAADES: Was offered Arenado for my Puig, Franimal and Hunter D. Keep 22, I’m rebuilding and trying to accumulate stars. Is Arenado enough here?

Paul Sporer: Arenado is an absolute monster of course, but I’m not sure him and two scrubs outdoes this trio, especially in a keep-22 situation. I’m all about consolidating talent and getting stars, but this feels like an overpay

deGrand: what are your NL Cy Young rankings at this point?

Paul Sporer: Scherzer/deGrom/Ryu

Kyle the landscaper: Kevin Cron’s 162 G pace at AAA (81 GP): .324/.446/.779, 76 HR, 160 R, 204 RBI!!!

Paul Sporer: Just a bananas season for CJ’s brother. He can ostensibly play 3B since Christian Walker kinda has 1B locked so hopefully they give Kevin Cron a full September to rake

Halp: I have a first round bye yet I lose JoRam Rizzo Muncy and Benintendi to injury. who can i cut by Sunday night?

Paul Sporer: Ramirez for sure, he’s definitely done. Maybe Beni, too, depending on league size and context, but he’s barely a top 90 OF this year in 5×5 — EDIT: I messed up on Beni, he’s a top 90 player, not OF — https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporer-baseball-chat-august-30th-2019/#comment-960565

DonJulio: If Yarbrough gets one start vs BOS in H2H playoffs, must start?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think I’m still going with it, but I think he’s actually tracking toward the last game at LAD and missing the BOS series. That’s sneakily good as LAD isn’t very good v. L

Greg: Is Will Smith now a top 3 Catcher?  Given that Keibert Ruiz is suppose to be not nearly as good DEF wise and not showing near the power (but what a batting eye!) … is he now trade bait?  With Diego Cartaya and Connor Wong coming will the Dodgers cash in on Ruiz while the value is still high or split time with Smith/Ruiz in the show?  If they split time do you think Smith gets 2/3 of the starts?  Or do they eventually trade Smith?  Getting stuck in a true platoon would limit what seems like a very good player in Smith (fantasy wise).  (If you can’t tell I bought Smith this year before he got the call to fix a total wasteland at C for my Dynasty League team)

Paul Sporer: Top 3 is toughhhh based on 35 games… even 35 excellent games. JTR, Sanchez, Grandal, Contreras are DEFINITELY ahead and then I’d have to assess the next group of 5. That said, for your case, I’d just hang on and enjoy the blossoming potential stud behind the dish. Smith has usurped Ruiz so at worst he’s the starter 5-6 times a week.

Dan: Where are you taking luis robert in drafts for 2020? Any recent young players you’d use as a comp?

Paul Sporer: A big spring will push him inside the top 120. I think he’s in the vein of teammates Moncada and Anderson (gaudy fantasy stats, potential plate profile issues), but as an OF. He’s one of my favorite prospects so I’ll be looking to draft him within reason

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta cut it short of the hour as I’m recording the Fireside with Nick. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch (twitch.tv/sporer) later today and on Sunday so you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a great weekend!

Guest: Thoughts on Nick Solak? What knod of a chance does he have as an everyday player in 2020?

Paul Sporer: (scroll up for thoughts on Solak!)

Paul Sporer: OK bye for real!