Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – August 24th, 2018

Paul Sporer: Hellllooooo!!! Let’s talk some baseball!!

Alex in Austin: Over under for Joe Ross mlb starts-3?

Paul Sporer: Cop Out Alert: Even!

Sun: What level of pitcher do you think Pivetta will be?

Paul Sporer: So I comped him to Eovaldi in passing in a piece earlier this week and someone on my Twitter mentioned Pineda so we know the flaws that those guys had, but they also showed put it together in spells. If he gets the HRs in check, he’s a top 30-type guy IMO, but that is easier said than done

Cool: Do you start Mikolas at Coors tonight?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league and standings context, but I think I would. The Rockies just aren’t a super-threatening offense. They still have a top 10 wOBA at home v RHP (9th), but their offense is as beatable as ever at home

Alex in Austin: Do you see any value in McCullers Jr. the rest of the way?

Paul Sporer: Maybe a couple starts in the final couple weeks, nothing I’m bending over backwards to acquire or hang onto

Tim: Season long 15 teamer and I’m leading ERA (by .22) and WHIP (by .045). Is it enough of a lead to be streaming 2 start pitchers to chase wins and K’s where I can still make up a few points, or is it too soon? Benching a guy like Ottavino for Cahill next week, for example.

Paul Sporer: I’m definitely OK with that, espec. for Cahill who I like quite a bit, tbh

Pat G: I’m coming out of a rebuild in a Dynasty, I have a ridiculous collection of young talent (Acuna, Soto, Correa, Devers, Bregman, Happ, Margot, Freeman, Snell, Taillon, Kopech, Honeywell, Reyes, Urias, Bundy, Rodon). It hasn’t actualized yet (this year I’m still in the bottom third). If I find myself stuck in the middle next season do I move some future talent for current, or should I continue to hold knowing my real contention window is 2020-2025?

Paul Sporer: I think it’ll really depend on your performance around the mid-to-late May area. If you’re starting to put something together, I’m OK selling some future talent to push for this year

Asking for a friend: Since the August SP ranks, how do you feel about Gibson (31), Quintana (53), Teheran (92)? They all seem to be about the same guy now.

Paul Sporer: I’d actually move Q to a distant third in that trio. He’s still just not showing me much. Teheran has surged (mostly w/his hit suppression, but also a K boost) and Gibson has pushed back a bit to where they are pretty close. Just speaks to the volatility of pitching to month-to-month.

Dave: Is Eddie Rosario in the no doubt “start your studs” category of OF, or would you be comfortable cycling him with someone on a hot streak in the Kole Calhoun/Conforto class of OF, depending on pitching matchup?

Paul Sporer: Nah, I’m sticking with Rosario and finding somewhere else to spot those guys in

Next Year: Are you cutting bait on the C position for 2019? I.e., willing to leave the slot empty in 1-catcher leagues?

Paul Sporer: No, that’s stupid IMO

Paul Sporer: Even if you’re on the low end (say, Chirinos), you’re leaving 50 R/RBI, 12-15 HR on the table for what? An extra streaming arm? No way that spot delivers more w/spot starters than having a C. And yes, the AVG is hit by the catcher, but the counting stats are worth more than the AVG pain, espec. bc Cs don’t log a ton of AB

Clint: Best holds guys ROS not named Hader or Ottavino?

Paul Sporer: Cishek, Oh, Hirano, Hicks, Watson, Hand, whoever doesn’t close b/w Jeffress & Soria to name a few

Trap Gone Hamels: Do you start Paxton fresh off the DL this Saturday @ Arizona?

Paul Sporer: Everything is standings dependent at this point, but ya i probably am

Ruben Mateo homer: Is Jalen Beeks a must add? It seems like his current arrangement lowers the risk of ratio damage.

Paul Sporer: c’mon y’all, it’s almost September and we’re still asking questions with ZERO league context??

Paul Sporer: Beeks has been solid in August… he’s fine, but just a streamer with plenty of risk

Kevin wears a t-shirt to BP: Do you start Marquez in Coors tomorrow?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m in. He’s been rolling

Steven: Should I hold Glasnow in my QS redraft?

Paul Sporer: If you need some Ks, but hard to see many QS

Alex in Austin: Cheap saves for a couple weeks- Betances, Hilbenberger, or Gsellman?

Paul Sporer: You ranked em in order

Posey Owner: Looks like Posey will be hitting the DL.  When he does, who do you like as a replacement?  Welington Castillo (after 10 day stint), Taylor Ward, Yan Gomes, Manny Pina or stream?  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Stream until Beef returns

yinyang: Kepler is on my waiver wire. Worth starting this coming week vs CLE & TEX? 12 team H2H, OBP. I’d have to drop Dahl, Calhoun, or bader

Paul Sporer: I’m cool w/him over Dahl if you like him

zurzles: 10 team H2H standard 5×5, no IP or transaction limits. Due to injuries I have this entire layer of iffy SPs I’m holding onto for dear life: Newcomb, Guerra, Heaney, Eflin, Pivetta. They all kind of suck but this league never has a lot of SPs available. Which ones can I drop? Are there any potential September callups I could target to replace them?

Paul Sporer: I think you gotta ride it out with the group bc the streaming pool has been so lame, even in 10 team (at least my 10 teamer). I haven’t reviewed call ups so I don’t have any off hand. Justin and I are covering some on the pod next week

yojiveself: trust Cahill at Hou next week?  he was owned in his last start.  Owned, Paul!  Owned!!

Paul Sporer: Ya Minny really got him in the 4th inning… it happens. I think I’d roll him v. HOU, though

Parts + Gleyber: Really liked the bit about pitcher volatility. It’s amazing how those single outings can ruin your view of a pitcher when you own him, but really just represent a small bump in the road overall. Hard not to go crazy in the moment.

Paul Sporer: Thanks, totally agree that it’s so hard in the moment to breathe and just relax but that’s why phrases like Small Sample Size exist and get said so often when trying to keep people in check from overreacting to a start or three

Manny’s Stylist: Turns out Maeda didn’t need to be added to August SP ranks after all…

Paul Sporer: Right? Really surprising that they’ve jettisoned him to the pen

Whambo: What are the odds that Dylan Cease gets a mid-summer promotion to the bigs next season?

Paul Sporer: 11%

Cool: What is your assessment of the job Avila has done for the Tigs rebuild? I’m personally pretty happy with a majority of the moves.

Paul Sporer: Ya I think it’s been pretty solid so far. Surprised we didn’t see more at the deadline, but there also weren’t pieces that were going to fundamentally alter the rebuild short of Casty or Fulmer (neither of whom NEED to be dealt)

Asking for a friend: Unsolicited opinion/feedback: I get the idea behind re-ranking SP each month, but I still find value in viewing ranks on a ROS basis, or a better term might be “true talent”. It’s hard to rely on monthly ranks for decision making when a hot month can bump a guy up or down 50 spots (in extreme cases).

Paul Sporer: Meanwhile I feel the opposite.. trying to view the SP market in a ROS scope just doesn’t have a lot of value, IMO. With injuries, there are just so few leagues where you truly set it and forget it so you have to play to the volatility, espec. w/The Glob

Ken: Kendrys Morales worth a test drive given the recent streak?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think he’s had solid underlying metrics all year and now his results are starting to come

Ronald Acuna: Who is your NL ROY? Me or that Juan Soto kid?

Paul Sporer: :flips coin: Ah, it landed Acuña this time – https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0…

Tim: Shallow league, need an all-around UTIL bat, who do you like most of Hosmer, Schwarber, Gardner, Inciarte?

Paul Sporer: Lemme get Schwarbs

brouhaha: Thoughts on Fulmer returning? Like him better than Ryu or Velazquez? Need ratios but also can’t take a hit in net wins.

Paul Sporer: I like Fulmer and think he’ll be solid in Sept., but if you can’t take a hit in Net Ws, then you gotta stick w/Ryu & VV

Ted: Is stashing Eloy for the last 3+ weeks going to be worth it?

Paul Sporer: Really don’t know… I’ll lean 55-45 that they give him the call

Jon: Expanding on your catcher point too: outside of like 2-3 guys, every other team in your league is rostering a catcher with a poor BA, so you’re hurt relatively less than having an outfielder with a bad batting average.

Paul Sporer: What do you mean? You can’t play that extra OF in the C spot. You’re just ceding 40-50 R/RBI to the rest of the league to save a little AVG pain. It’s a bad strategy

HappyFunBall: Which late season suddenly alive veteran bat do I bet on? Cano or Sano?  Positional need is negligible.

Paul Sporer: What about category need? Sano if you need pop, Cano if you need AVG; Cano if it’s points

Dave: Is Mazara a worthwhile hold for the rest of the season (12-team, mixed roto league) or are you using that roster spot for a streaming SP/multi-position guy to catch up on innings/GP?

Paul Sporer: I’m good streaming a bat, but I’d keep an eye on Maz himself to possibly get into the mix if he catches fire again

Al: Any hope for Dozier going forward? Is he playing through injury or just lost bat speed for good like Jose Bautista last year? Out of all everyday position players (>200 batted balls), only Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon have a lower maximum exit velocity (104 mph). I would cut him but only holding on since Dodgers placed their faith in a bounce-back and they’re much smarter than I am.

Paul Sporer: I’m hanging on. Despite the max exit velo thing you cite, his batted ball profile is very much in line with the last couples year. He certainly hasn’t been peak Dozier, but still someone I’m keeping around

Dan: How does your threshold for holding/dropping your hitters change down the stretch? I don’t want to chuck my regulars just to chase the hot hand, but I also figure dudes like Inciarte are much more expendable at this point.

Paul Sporer: Really depends on category setup, but ya I’m not ditching the core studs for a some 2-week flash in the pan

zurzles: Can CMart be a great multi-inning reliever ROS?

Paul Sporer: He *can* if he’s at-all healthy

Phyllis: Paul, thanks as always. I’m in the lucky position of being solidly in the top 3 in my league but also have some great keeper options. In my 12-team mixed roto w/a $260 budget, I’m locked in with Juan Soto $10 and Walker Buehler $10. For the third, what do you think: Miles Mikolas $7, Scooter Gennett $9, Dereck Rodriguez $10, or none of the above?

Paul Sporer: I’m going Scoots! Like a lot of what Mikolas & D-Rod have done, but really prefer the bat

Ryan: Hey, going back to that Paxton question, last I heard he wasn’t coming back until the A’s serires next week. Did I miss something?

Paul Sporer: Word, I was just going off the chatter’s question as I wasn’t up on his latest – http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/5938/james-paxton

Dan: McHugh has been beaten up a bit lately – time to move on, or you think he’ll continue to be a solid half-SP down the stretch?

Paul Sporer: I’m hanging on, two dud outings for a guy who was toting a sub-1.00 is fine

NL rules rule: What is going on with Jake Bauers? OK to drop in 12 team MLB universe H2H?

Paul Sporer: The league adjusted, his turn to answer. Yes OK to drop

Peace Bro: Hi.  Would you keep Matt Chapman over Devers?

Paul Sporer: I would, yes, but I’m not out on Devers altogether. Eager to see if Devers’ price drops and makes him nice & affordable for ’19. Just really love Chap

Art: Is this just a cold streak for Albies or do you have long-term concerns about his game?  Looks like they recently dropped him in the lineup

Paul Sporer: He’s been pretty solid-if-unspectacular from a slash line perspective since the blazing May, but August has been a true cold snap. I’m not worried at all. Grinding through his first full MLB season at age-21. Still love him

Guest: Tommy Pham worth holding onto in H2H 12 team (5×5, avg)? Change of scenery going to help down the stretch

Paul Sporer: Hang on through the weekend to see if he comes back (latest suggested he’d be back tonight)

JO: Dropped 1 of my remaining $5 of FAAB on Touki earlier this week for him not to be called up. Please tell me he’ll get some starts down the stretch

Paul Sporer: Same. I wish it was only $1, but mine was also NL only. Anyway, I think he’ll get another look

H2H: Eddie Rosario or David Peralta ROS?  10tm H2H league, Rosario has been killing me since early July and Peralta has been a savior.  But, upside.

Paul Sporer: Seems like you have both, can’t just hang onto both? Always been a huge Peralta fan and I’m loving this standout campaign. I think Rosario has another hot streak bubbling up

Bart Manchester: Any concerns with Buehler being a part of the bloated Dodgers rotation next year?

Paul Sporer: Nah, his talent is near the top of the heap. He’ll get his time.

Major Major: Wind is blowing out to CF in Wrigley this weekend. Maybe pump the brakes on streaming Luis Castillo tomorrow, right? (See also – Tony Disco faceplanting last night). Sort of a question, sort of a PSA.

Paul Sporer: Is the wind that consistent where we know it a day(s) in advance? I’m OK passing Castillo in a shallower league bc the Cubs are tough, but I wouldn’t make the choice solely on wind until we have an idea what the wind is like on his day

Daniel Castro: Did the Rockies pass on Murphy because they’re waiting on me, their one true savior?

Paul Sporer: LOL, yep

Pat G: What’s up with Tommy Pham?

Paul Sporer: Just hasn’t been healthy for a lot of the year

B. Ryce Hammers Luscious Locks: Damn it Paul! I’ll never get a question answered with these surprise chats! Thanks for hosting though. Friday afternoons are a little brighter cause of you

Paul Sporer: This is the first comment you put and I chat every Friday!

RJ: You misunderstood Jon’s catcher follow-up. He’s saying most other teams will be playing a bad catcher, so the relative average hit is less severe than, say, playing an outfield who hits for a poor average.

Paul Sporer: My bad, I’m a clown (nothing new)

Mark Shields: What do you think about Carlos Martinez for next season?

Paul Sporer: I still like him as a starter with major upside

Griffey’s Nerve Tonic: The overall trend of Chicago wind direction has been consistently shifting from due N to SSW over the past day and a half and forecasts have it continuing through tomorrow at least.  Can’t predict individual gusts but the prevailing wind is pointing toward CF.  FWIW

Paul Sporer: Good stuff, appreciate the info!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Going to edit & post the pod. Thanks so much for coming! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (psporer24), and Snapchat (psporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later tonight and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a great weekend!