Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – April 19th, 2019

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, everyone! My new Starting Pitcher ranks are live so this would be a great chance to ask questions about them if you have any: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/april-starting-pitcher-rankings/

Big Tuna : After the call up, in leagues are you looking at Chavis? 12 tm OPS?

Paul Sporer: Not sure there is going to be enough playing time for 12-teamers, though he did play some 2B in the minors

Anders: 14 team points league, would you drop any of Tim Beckham, Hunter Dozier, Vogelbach, or Mazara for Yandy Diaz/Avisail Garcia? I’d love to make room for them, good problem to have I suppose.

Paul Sporer: Ya it is a good problem to have as I’d probably just roll with what I’ve got in that situation

Freddy Mac: Would you still hold Laureano in a 12 teamer? The K/BB is atrocious

Paul Sporer: Cuttable if you’ve got someone else you want, especially bc I doubt he’d be instantly picked up and if he starts to get going again, you can scoop him back up

Guest: Is it time to give up on Hampson? Will he get ABs until Murphy comes back? Any chance Desmond loses job and Hampson and McMahon can co-exist?

Paul Sporer: I’m still holding on. He’s at .276/.323/.483 in his last seven games. He’s just getting going

DJ: A lucky streak, or is that something to this new version of Luke Weaver?

Paul Sporer: I doubt he will hold THIS specific K rate without a swinging strike boost, but I dig him as a strong SP

Big Tuna : Prefer Stephenson or Buttrey as ratio RP with possible save upside down the road?

Paul Sporer: Buttrey has better SV potential

Mike: My team has unexpectedly been a juggernaut so far, with far and away the most points in the league. Should I be looking to make my team even better via trade or should I not mess with a good thing

Paul Sporer: Weird flex, but OK

The Hanser the Better: Pineda sure did allow some taters the other day. Is his velo coming back?

Paul Sporer: The ol’ Michael Piñata Experience! He just can’t be trusted. The clunkers will always keep him in the low-to-mid 4.00s with a high-3.00s upside… just don’t see him reaching the level his K-BB% rate suggests

Me: Man, Wheeler has been pretty frustrating. You’re still a fan?

Paul Sporer: Very much still a fan. 44% of his earned runs game in the one bad outing. I don’t really see an issue

MarinerDan: Thoughts on Clint Frazier so far?  Is there a path to playing time even after Stanton/Hicks/Andujar return?

Paul Sporer: If he keeps raking, they’ll find time

Hi Paul: Is there any reason to be optimistic about Darvish? I feel like I have to hold being in a 16-team but I’m not feeling great about it

Paul Sporer: In a 16-teamer, I’m still holding. It hasn’t been great, I understand, but it’s not like the wire offers much more

Bryan: 12-team roto (AVG, OPS, R, RBI, HR, SB & QS, WHIP, ERA, K/9, K, SV+HD). Would you deal Musgrove for T. Shaw? My staff would still include Scherzer, Bauer, Taillon, Wheeler, Maeda.

Paul Sporer: I would not. Gotta be able to get more for Musgrove, IMO

Pol: Aaron Sanchez has been walking too many, but getting good results.  Any chance he can be a top 30ish SP with health this year?

Paul Sporer: Top 30 would be tough without maintaining a premium ERA bc the Ks aren’t there. He’s had a great ERA season before, but I wouldn’t bet on it. He’s a hold for sure, but temper expectations

Craig in CHI: Thanks for chatting. I already asked you this on Twitter, but I was hoping you could expand on your VV distrust? He’s 27, just had 30 GS, career 9.6 K/9 in the NL East. Thanks

Paul Sporer: I dunno…. I could picture a scenario where goes off, but I’m not betting on it. I need to see more

Big Tuna : Any reason to worry about Goldy? The strikeout numbers are way up, despite still having good HR numbers.

Paul Sporer: Didn’t we do this last year

Siri: Why so low on Skaggs (besides the current injury)?

Paul Sporer: What’s to really like? He’s pretty meh… and hurt regularly

Dave C: I have a chance to get moncada, tatis or de jong in a redraft ops league.  How do you rank them?

Paul Sporer: Moncada, DeJong, Tatis

Yonny: How do you value Chirinos?

Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/april-starting-pitcher-rankings/

OldManRoto: Chavis called up by Boston. Should I be excited to play him over Pereza? Different skill set but not much out there for SBs.

Paul Sporer: I can go for him over Peraza

Anthony: 1. Jorge Polanco or garret hampson

Paul Sporer: Polanco

Rick: Is Andrew Miller droppable in a 10-team mixed league?

Paul Sporer: Yes for sure

Anders: Would you trade Tim Beckham + Touki for either of Darvish/Quintana?

Paul Sporer: Ya I could see that

Turgid: Why did I draft only shitty pitchers?

Paul Sporer: Because they’re all shitty this year, somehow!

Can of corn: Turnbull or p. Lopez. Which as higher upside?

Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/april-starting-pitcher-rankings/ very close, but I favored Turnbull by a couple spots

SparkyMcguffey: Christian Walker or Ryon Healy? OR…neither?

Paul Sporer: I dig Walker

Craig in CHI: Montas is a better version of Reynaldo?

Paul Sporer: Ya I can see that. I still can’t quit Reynaldo, though I only have him in one league now

E: Stripling has been good this year but he’s ranked lower than your preseason rankings. Any reason to drop him?

Paul Sporer: He’s going to the bullpen with Ryu & Hill on the way back… he’ll be back in the rotation eventually, but for now I’m a sad one re: Strippy

Don: concerned about Musgrove’s drop in velocity at all?

Paul Sporer: Not really as literally everything else is better

Cardsfan: What is your view on what will happen when Carlos Martinez returns for the Birds?

Paul Sporer: I feel like he will take Hudson’s spot

Sum: thanks for the chats, Paul! prefer Joc to Laureano?

Paul Sporer: No problem! While I do love Laureano, I’d roll w/Joc right now

Sammy: Is Pablo worth holding onto? While he is perhaps capable, is it a season too early to jump on?

Paul Sporer: His component numbers (23% K-BB) are fantastic and a .386 BABIP won’t maintain so I think he’ll get better and I’d hold in most leagues

Pine Needles: JD Davis or Yandy Diaz?

Paul Sporer: Yandy, better playing time

Brandon Lowe: What’s my playing time prognosis ROS?

Paul Sporer: Seemingly full-time and should be as long as he handles lefties

Siri: Kepler’s 2018 sure looks like the outlier at this point. Do you still think he takes the next step?

Paul Sporer: His numbers are actually better than 18 so far, though, right? I still like him

AF: Is Hunter Dozier a legit breakout or just a hot streak?

Paul Sporer: Too early to say it’s a legit breakout, but I’m buying him and seeing how it pans out.

2b: 12-team league. Have B Dozier and R Odor for 2b. Are either going to be useful going forward? Or do I need to make a trade?

Paul Sporer: Oof, that’s tough. I was bullish on Dozier coming in thinking that the knee injury was a big reason for his ’18 and he was beyond that. The start has been truly atrocious so despite the small sample, I’m a bit concerned. I’ve never been a huge Odor fan, but I think he’ll be decent upon return from the IL. I’d be OK cutting Dozier in a 12-team, though

Big Boy: I need some Homer Bailey talk?  Bumped up his K’s, throwing a ton of splitters….can he keep it up to any level, or is this just purely small sample size?  Anything you are seeing?

Paul Sporer:

 

Paul Sporer

@sporer

 

Another solid start from Homer Bailey… yes, THAT Homer Bailey: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K — 11 Swinging Strikes, 13 Called in 86 pitches (28% CSW). Now at 27% K, 8% BB, 12% SwStr, 4.30 ERA, 1.09 WHIP in 23 IP. 1 bad start v. SEA (7 ER), 3 gems (v. CLE, MIN, at NYY)

19 Apr 2019

What we’re seeing so far has been well-supported, but that doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed going forward. Gets a 2-start week next week and I think I’d give him a go. Short leash, but worth a look IMO

Maceo: Lowe or Wong until Murphy comes back in OPS league?

Paul Sporer: Lowe for me

Rick: I want to piggyback on the Laureano question b/c he was my favorite sleeper and he’s just dragging me down.  He’s going to play every day and he’s fast with some pop.  I don’t expect .270+ average, but something like .250 with 15 HRs and 30 SB still ain’t too shabby.

Paul Sporer: Agreed, but in shallower leagues, he’s churnable right now. Might even come back around to him as you churn, but I’ve learned that you have to be more aggressive in 10- and 12-teamers with more talent on the wire. I’m still very much a Laureano fan for the full season

John: Would you be selling on Syndergaard?

Paul Sporer: No, I’m holding

Flipmode: Traded L. Cain for Blackmon in OPS league. I’m not crazy am I?

Paul Sporer: No,I don’t think that’s crazy

Walter: Corbin Burnes – probably out of rotation….stash or drop?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league size. Make sure you’re including league context, y’all, or I can’t give a great answer. In 10- and 12-teamers, he’s an easy cut. Prooooobably cutting in 15-teamers, too

Jeries: Which post-TJ guy should I pick up: Honeywell or Puk?

Paul Sporer: Huge fan of both and hope they return healthy! I’d lean Puk, but I’m not expecting much from either in 2019. More interested in 2020

Mike: My Kershaw for his Merrifield in a 10 team OPS league. Dont have any incredible speedsters at the moment and am fine with streaming arms every week- what do you think?

Paul Sporer: Perfectly fair

Dylan: Is it time to panic on Andrew Miller?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’d say so and he’s not a closer, so he’s a pretty easy cut

AF: Are you on board with Ian Kennedy – relief ace, he of the 1.23/3.32/2.69 FIP/xFIP/SIERA and 26.2% K-BB%?

Paul Sporer: I’m intrigued. Man, look at all these fantasy zombies (credit: Matthew Berry) on KC!

Guest: Thinking of dropping Abreu for Christian Walker. Crazy? (Abreu’s been bad for a long time!)

Paul Sporer: Whattya mean? Abreu had a .922 OPS in the 2H of last year, so I’m not sure he’s been bad for a long time. I really dig Walker, but I think I gotta cut someone else

Guest: I really enjoy your work. Thanks for all you do. But something I never understood. How is it possible that you do not play or ever talk about Ottoneu?

Paul Sporer: Thanks! I do play an Ottoneu league. I’m still gaining experience in the format. I’m not sure what I’d say about it specifically, but I’m not avoiding it as a discussion point

CubFan: Do you think Voit owners should be concerned with the recent talk that Andujar could play some 1B when he comes off the IL?

Paul Sporer: I’d be more concerned w/his performance. If he hits well, he’ll play regardless of Andujar’s return.

Domingo German: 44th SP?  Oh stop, you’re too kind.

Paul Sporer: I wanted to go even higher, but had to temper my excitement given that it’s still a small sample

Nelson: Can JD Davis turn in a Max-Muncy type year?

Paul Sporer: That seems lofty, especially given his current PT outlook, but I’m definitely intrigued. If full-time PAs opened up, I’d scoop him everywhere

Jon Jay: 10 team cats, what makes this look reasonable: Carrasco + ??? for Verlander

Paul Sporer: A decent bat maybe

Paul Sporer: Really depends what the other person needs, can’t really give a terribly useful answer

Trevor: I currently have Astudillo and Barnhart as backup catcher options for Posey.  Returns from the DL will soon create a roster crunch, so who do you like more as a backup (and on a side-note, is there hope for Posey)?

Paul Sporer: Prefer Astudillo. Posey doesn’t have to be that great to be a useful C, so I’m willing to give him another 100 or so PA to see what’s up

kdl: Is Stripling getting booted from the rotation with Kershaw back and Hill and Ryu on the way (and Urias doing well)?

Paul Sporer: Yes, unfortunately

Henry Blanco : Muncy for robbie Ray?

Paul Sporer: Prefer Muncy as I’ve never been a Ray guy, but it’s a fair deal

Joey Diaz: Thoughts on Niko Goodrum?

Paul Sporer: With all due respect, this isn’t a great question. “Thoughts on” is far too vague to deliver anything useful. Not trying to put you on blast, but just using it as the example.

Greg: I grabbed Soroka everywhere.  What happens when Folty (and Newcomb??) return?

Paul Sporer: Not sure. Seemed to get the feeling it could be a 1-and-done for Soroka… at least temporarily. If it were me, I’d put Touki in the pen and keep Soroka in the rotation

Green & Gold: Matt Olson or Pete Alonso going forward?

Paul Sporer: Olson was one of my absolute faves coming into the year and then got hurt. I’d have to go with Alonso at this point

Siri: Re Kepler: his K% and BB% have regressed from 2019. K rate is now in line with career numbers.

Paul Sporer: Ya I meant his slash. His BB% hasn’t regressed… 11.6% to 10% is a nothing difference.

Daniel: Should Ryan Pressley be rostered in a 10 team points league that doesn’t give points for holds?

Paul Sporer: Ehhhhhh, not necessarily

Schoop of Ice Cream: Why are the dodgers putting an oft-injured 39 year old back in the rotation when Stripling is 29 and thriving? It makes no sense

Paul Sporer: I mean, it makes plenty of sense. I love Strippy, but Hill has a 3.30 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 303 IP for the LA. He is no doubt oft-injured, but he’s also very good

Joe: Soroka peaking your interest at all? #85 on the updated list.

Paul Sporer: Just not sure of his role

BIll EmBARRassment: Hey you, with the glasses, from the ATX….what do you think happens to Clint Frazier once Hicks and Stanton return?  I mean, he has shown he belongs…

Paul Sporer: :looks at mirror… checks location on phone: SHIT! Ya gotta me on both of those!! If Frazier keeps hitting, they’ll find the PT, but if he’s mediocre or worse, he’ll lose the time

Rick Honeycutt: Is domingo santana likely to be relevant for the entire season?  anything to look for in his underlying stats?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s very plausible. He was amazing in ’17. He flopped in a half season of disjointed time last year, but I believe in him as a full timer

Matt W: Michael Chavis was a speculation pick for all NFBC draft holds as depth middle infielder. What can I expect the rest of the year with the juiced ball?

Paul Sporer: Good scoop. Could see him poppin some bombs w/some real playing time

AM: Just dropped Posey for Alfaro in a 12 team mixed, 1 catcher league. Was this a master stroke?

Paul Sporer: No, not a master stroke. 37% K, 2% BB, .480 BABIP, 38% HR/FB … regression will NOT be kind to Alfaro

Dynasty : Do I move JRam (41 next year) this year for Tatis (10 next year)?

Paul Sporer: Hmmm, in a dynasty I could see it

Jon: What type of pitcher could I get for Chris Paddack? Should I be concerned about him being shutdown later in the year?

Paul Sporer: A good one… I dunno, it depends what your market will bear. Shutdown concerns aren’t unreasonable, but it’s impossible for me to guess what kinda P you could get for him

Joe: When do you hope to see Daz Cameron running down flies for your Tigers?  Think they’ll do him the same as Stewart last year, cup of coffee in September, quicker, or slower?

Paul Sporer: He’s only 22 so it’d make more sense than what they did with C Stew, but I hope he’s up this summer if he’s performing in AAA

Mean Gene: Kris Bryant is hitting into the ground, hitting for weaker contact. And this goes back to the second half of last season. His xStats look baaad. Is it panic time?

Paul Sporer: I wonder if the shoulder is still a problem. I’m neeeerrrrrvvvvooouussss

Mike Schmidt: Nola or Kris Bryant rest of way?  Fair 1 for 1 in 5×5 10-team obp league?  who scares you more?

Paul Sporer: Nola invokes some nervousness, too, but less than KB. Fair deal, but I’d lean Nola

Dan: I traded away Benintendi for Corey Seager (keeper).. I needed a shortstop. Did I lose the trade?

Paul Sporer: Nah, that seems totally fair

dave in slc: I just got in so you may have addressed this but when are the new rankings coming out?!

Paul Sporer: -__-

Paul Sporer: It’s in the very first msg 🙂 — here ya go, dave! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/april-starting-pitcher-rankings/

Tommy La Sort of: Is Carlos Rodon fool’s gold?

Paul Sporer: No, I think there could be some real legitimacy here. I’m thoroughly intrigued

Jafo: What’s up with Trevor May? I thought he was going to be in the mix for saves? He’s not even picking up holds for me? Why has Rocco buried him to start the year?

Paul Sporer: I don’t know, it stinks. Parker is closer. I do think May will be in the high leverage mix for some Holds, but it seems you can move on if you were hoping for Saves

Teo: How far would Soroka move up your rankings if he does hold on to the starter job?

Paul Sporer: Top 60ish

Big Fella: Taillon is still ranked very high for you, what has you keeping the faith?

Paul Sporer: What has you losing it? Sorry to answer a question with a question, but I haven’t seen anything in the four starts to be lower on him. Ks aren’t there yet, but swing & miss is with a 12% SwStr.

Prospector : Do you believe in Winker’s power spike?  5HR so far, 7 in all of 2018.  Did I read somewhere in the offseason that he had been playing with a hurt shoulder for awhile?  What do you think is a reasonable power projection if he stays healthy?

Paul Sporer: I think most, if not all, are oppo tacos, too. I think he could push the upper-20s with health

purplemini: is Beeks’ current role helping or hurting his development? what do you think his future role will be?

Paul Sporer: I’d say helping. For so long we’ve had the 6 IP or 1 IP role and nothing in between. The Rays are showing that there’s room for a 2-3 IP guy

Joe: Has Luke Weaver become fantasy relevant in a 10 team mixed league?

Paul Sporer: Actually about to go record a Fireside with Nick where we will be discussing him and another SP doing well, so I gotta get going!

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much for coming out! Check out the SP rankings and leave your thoughts & questions: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/april-starting-pitcher-rankings/ — Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Snapchat (psporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a great weekend!