Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – April 12th, 2019

Paul Sporer: It’s time to talk some baseball! Thanks for coming out, everyone!!

ke’bryan mays hayes: Joe Musgrove owns. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Agreed, but I really don’t like “thoughts?” questions… it’s not really a question. You had the benefit of being first in the chat. I love Musgrove, though.

John: When do GB rates stabilize for the year?

Paul Sporer: About 70 batted balls

John: Paul help me with Desmond.  Is he droppable or should I ride this out?  GB rate is down 20 points but all statcast measures look terrible.

Paul Sporer: The entire Rockies are trash right now. If it’s a 10-teamer, I can see moving on, but anything else I’m riding out until we get some more home games

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: 5×5 (OBP) – Traded Chris Sale, Brandon Nimmo, Jordan Zimmerman for Mike Clevenger and Anthony Rendon in my office league. Am I going to get fired or is it more even than I am thinking?

Paul Sporer: That’s totally fine

Acuna Matata: Drop Wacha for Pomeranz in standard 5×5?

Paul Sporer: I’m OK w/that

JupiterBrando: H2H 12-team contract league. traded Luis Castillo at 3/10 for Strasburg at 3/28 and Adalberto Mondesi at 3/8. big win or huge win

Paul Sporer: Pretty huge win

Biff Henderson: Narvaez, Alfaro or Phegley to replace dirty Sanchez while on the DL?

Paul Sporer: I’d go Narvaez

Jimbo: You see Dee Gordon’s HR yesterday? Rabbit ball is back fo sho.

Paul Sporer: LOL yes, needed that HR from him

kobrien: I’ve got a few sluggers who are starting slow like Votto and Blackmon. How long do I wait until starting to panic a bit?

Paul Sporer: At least a month on first 5 rounders like that

AD: Peter Alonso or Max Muncy in a league with AVG and OBP?

Paul Sporer: I’m still going Muncy, but I’ve absolutely boosted my outlook on Alonso

Kyle: What do you see as tyler O’Neil’s path to playing time? I’m worried that Martinez will take over for fowler completely

Paul Sporer: I think you’re right about Martinez going in over O’Neill. At this point O’Neill would need a major injury or big struggles from Bader to really carve out a spot

Matt: Need to replace Franmil on my team (can move some positions around). Do you think Renfroe or Adam Frazier has the better short term/long term future (for this season)?

Paul Sporer: Renfroe the best replacement for Franmil to emulate his profile

The Hanser the Better: Al only. Would you swap either Pineda/Thornton for either Astudillo/Jansen? Catcher would upgrade Vazquez. Pitcher I dealt would be replaced but a middle reliever or lance lynn type. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’d do Thornton for Astudillo

Matt: Is it time to drop Nick Pivetta? I was so hopeful, and hate to make rash decisions this early in the season (especially in a dynasty league)…but I can’t start him, and could really use his roster spot…

Paul Sporer: In dynasty, I gotta hang tight. Bench him if you’d like, but don’t cut just yet. It’s been awful, but it can still flip

Puig My Friend: What do you think of trading Shane Bieber for Nick Senzel in a dynasty league?

Paul Sporer: If I needed the pitching right now and I’m competing, I could do it, but I’d rather not do it in a vacuum.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Commissioner of a work league with a lot of casual baseball fans (but many new to fantasy). I’ve done a few primers and tried to help people at any point. But so far, people have dropped the likes of Starling Marte, Edwin Diaz, Miles Mikolas, and Mike Foltynewicz. What tools would you provide to the seven or eight new fantasy players to increase the competition for the four or five vets, without inundating people with too much information? My immediate supervisor is not in the league and I don’t think he’s happy with how many people come to ask me questions throughout the day (though I love it).

Paul Sporer: Can you institute a no-drop list on your league host? That would help somewhat. As for getting ppl to hang on long enough with their early players, I’d mention what I call the Cory Schwartz Rule (of MLB.com, formerly a big time fantasy player). With 26 weeks in the season and 23 players on your roster, you kinda work in reverse to decide whether or not you should cut someone. The idea is that you’d never really cut your first 3 rounders (barring some out-for-year injury or something) and so then you have 23 for 23. It doesn’t have to be a 1:1, meaning you could cut your 21st rounder in the first couple weeks, but you don’t really start considering your teens-round players until 8-10 weeks into the season, your top 10 pick until 13-15 weeks in, etc…

Paul Sporer: I hope that explanation isn’t awful.

Jeffie: My Sale, Buehler, Corbin, Wheeler, Pivetta staff that I was excited about after the draft has been a dumpster fire. Any major concerns about any/all of them (besides Corbin I guess)?

Paul Sporer: Sale is a mystery, but we’re just playing the wait-and-see, Buehler didn’t really get a Spring Training, Wheeler only has the only truly bad start and they’ve identified some mechanical issues to tweak, and Pivetta has been brutal. I’m still holding the whole group, except maybe Pivetta in a shallower league where someone I really like is available for pickup. It is still pretty early, though I understand the frustration

Mike: When do the Twins move Buxton up in the order?  It appears he has made the jump up in proformance but they keep hitting him 9th.

Paul Sporer: Has he made a real jump in performance? He has a .400 BABIP, 0 HR, and a poor plate profile (27% K, 3% BB). I think it’s fine to keep him down in the order for now

Prospector: DeShields BB% and K% both at 19.5%. Just a BAPIP correction from a free rabbit on the waiver wire?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m hanging tight and buying DeShields wherever I need speed

KB: How big are your concerns for Strasburg with the reduced velocity and increased walk rate? Will he right the ship?

Paul Sporer: Velo’s down a little, but not worried about the BB%. It’s really the 4 BB game pushing it. A 0-1 BB outing his next time and it’s back where it belongs

Will: Last week I traded Roberto Osuna (have Chapman too) and Carlos Santana for Gleyber (I own Turner). 12 team roto (avg not OBP). I feel decent about it, but should I have aimed higher for another SS?

Paul Sporer: Nah, that’s fine

Anders: Would you be shopping Tim Beckham at this point and do you think there’s something legit about his hot start?

Paul Sporer: I do like the early plate skills from Beckham (as a long-time Beckham Believer), but I’d probably just ride it out as I’m not sure anyone is really giving you anything major for him.

Prospector: Margivicius vs COL or Sale @ NYY?  This question saddens me.

Paul Sporer: C’mon…. you have to start Sale

J0hnMachete: Hey Paul! In my 12 teamer I unfortunately have Darvish and Eovaldi, still to early to cut bait on them?

Paul Sporer: My god they’ve been AWFUUUUULLLLLL. Darvish is at MIA, v. ARI next week. If you can’t start him, just cut him. I’m gonna ride it out w/this 2-start week. I’m 100% sitting Eovaldi at NYY, but I could even see cutting him. I really did love him coming into the season, but in a 12, I can move on

Zack Godley: Did I forget how to pitch or will I pull this back together? When do I think about dropping myself in a 12 team roto?

Paul Sporer: Can move on from him in a 12er. Could see him gaining stream status later if he figures it out, but he’s not a must-hold

Back end starters: Do you feel Anibal Sanchez, and Luke Weaver will be serviceable starters in a 12-team NL league?

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure. A 12-team NL Only is deeeeeeeeeeeeep

Kerosenedan: Deep league, roto 5×5 – is there any reason to hang on to Dylan Bundy?

Paul Sporer: Does your league reward failure? I’m cutting Bundy just about everywhere (maybe a deeeeep reserve roster I’d stash)

Bob Villar: Aguilar or Y. Diaz ROS in OBP league?

Paul Sporer: Still riding with Aguilar for a bit in OBP. Would try to add Yandy for someone else, though

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Explanation was not awful; thanks. Should have mentioned this is also a weekly moves league and I did set an inning cap (30), which might have been aggressive if people aren’t paying attention to their rosters or miss the window to edit things. Think people would notice if I removed the innings limit?

Paul Sporer: Don’t remove without saying anything. Just keep everything above board

Donjuan: If you own Tim Beckham, when can you justify dropping him (because this can’t be any where near real, right?)

Paul Sporer: Not 207 wRC+ real, but I’m not looking for reasons to cut him right now

Anders: Would you trade Archer for Wheeler straight up? (H2H 14 team points)

Paul Sporer: Yes, I would

Anonymous: Rizzo + Luis Castillo + Pham = Lindor in 11-team small-bench dynasty? Because the Lindor owner sure didn’t think so 🙁

Paul Sporer: Wow, that’s surprising. Trading a young stud like Lindor is tough, but that’s a damn good offer

Jim: M Chapman or Votto ROS. Was thinking votto in OBP leagues but Chapman everywhere else including OPS.

Paul Sporer: Chappy for me

Zipp: Kolten Wong or Chad Pinder ROS?

Paul Sporer: I’m going to say Pinder as I think he’ll continue to expand his role and earn more PA

Sammiches or Sangwiches?: Peripherals look pretty good for Heyward?  Can we buy into it even a little as sustainable?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think those just entirely dismissing out of hand could be missing out. I think he needs to be on a roster everywhere right now, obviously w/a tight leash given how poor his last 3 yrs have been. Lotta red in his little Statcast box in the upper right: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jason-heyward-518792?stat…

Donjuan: Are you rooting for Chris Davis to get a hit, or to extend the streak?  I have always liked him, but I find myself rooting for the streak.

Paul Sporer: Rooting for him. Not gonna root for failure. Not his fault Baltimore overpaid him and it’s not like he WANTS to suck

JupiterBrando: offered Votto and Mondesi for Alonso and Merrifield. am I crazy?

Paul Sporer: You might be a little sample size drunk. I’d prefer Votto/Mondesi, but it’s not egregious

TM: at what point are you dropping robinson cano in an 8 team h2h?

Paul Sporer: 8-teamer requires some churning to stay on top of things, so it’s not completely out of bounds to scoop someone else you like

Anonymous: NFBC is a no-trades format right? Do you miss having the option to trade, Paul?

Paul Sporer: Yes it’s no-trade, and no I do not

Sam: Hey Paul, anything different about mitch moreland approach this yr? He’s crushin right now with a .231 babip and looks like hes doubled his hr/fb %. Any truth to it?

Paul Sporer: He has a hot run every year. https://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=3086&position=1B&type=3… and every year he gets back to his solid-but-unspectacular level. I’m not averse to riding the hot streak, but I’m not buying a new level until I see a good bit more

Bruno: I just inherited a last-place 5×5 roto team with too many 1Bmen. Which two would you keep out of Encarnacion, Voit, C.Santana, Aguilar.

Paul Sporer: Prob look to trade EE and Voit as they likely have the most juice in the market

Matt: Is Adam Jones a real fantasy asset again, or is this a flash in the pan?

Paul Sporer: Prob won’t keep this peak level, but I think he’ll be solid all year

Never Gets Question Answered Guy: My A’s fan friend wants Jesus Luzardo from me. Who do you like best in return between Domingo German, Chris Paddack, or Corbin Burnes?

Paul Sporer: I could see taking Paddack, but it seems kinda lateral. I guess you’re getting the healthier guy right now

NY city: Can Domingo German continue his solid start to 2019?  I dropped E-Rod for him after a bad couple starts.

Paul Sporer: Yes he can, I love his stuff. Needs to stop walking so many, but he can be an asset for a while

Bob : Would you start Urias and Burnes in the LAD at Milwaukee game?

Paul Sporer: Urias for sure, but Burnes prob depends on league size

My Mama Says: What is up with Statcast saying Tellez hit it 505?

Paul Sporer: LOL I’m not sure. Thought I heard that they adjusted it

Deltron 3030: Has the Jorge Polanco breakout arrived?  Where do you think he ranks at SS ROS?

Paul Sporer: It’s too early to say anything has arrived yet. He kinda broke out in 2H of ’17. I definitely like him

Josh Donaldson: Should I stay optimistic? Will they bump me down the order regardless?

Paul Sporer: Yes and I doubt they move him down in the order (outside of maybe a game or 2 here and there) for a good while

Windy: SporerChar  x2

Paul Sporer: sporerOtter

George: Cut two: German, Godley, Pineda, Corbin Barnes, Caleb Smith

Paul Sporer: Godley for sure. Other one is p tough. I guess Smith since he’s really a home-only guy

Anonymous: how’s jen taking to DFS? is this a gateway to getting her hooked on deeper format leagues?

Paul Sporer: It stresses her out to not win daily but I’ve told her how hard that is! She’s been enjoying it, though, and has some cashes

Tommy Sells: Will it ever be safe to start German Marquez at home? Maybe against bottom half offenses?

Paul Sporer: Coors is undefeated. That’s why I wasn’t taking him as a Top 20 (well, 22nd) SP. Think you’ll have to run him out there sometimes. Can’t just get half a pitcher that early

Oddball Herrera: How many more weeks do we need to hold on to Darvish before we can safely walk him through town chanting ‘shame’ on his way to the waiver wire?

Paul Sporer: I’m giving him next week’s 2-start at MIA and v. ARI. I do wonder if the blister is an issue still

yhency : Does Alonso put up a goldschmidt year minus the SBs?

Paul Sporer: Relaaaaaaaxxxxx, let’s see him hit a cold snap first

Liberty Bell: How do you see the Phillies bullpen shaking out?  I actually own two of the three potential closers in an NL-only league – Neris & Dominguez.  I keep thinking Robertson will win out on the gig, but he’s been bad.

Paul Sporer: D Rob has been fine his last 3 outings. I still lean him, but it’s not like Kapler didn’t alert us to this being an annoying situation

Bill: What do I do with Rougned Odor?  Sit him for Pinder?  Drop him?

Paul Sporer: Y’all have to include league context to get useful answers.

E: Chris Davis is the answer to ‘Could an Average Joe get a hit off an MLB pitcher?’ No, no they could not.

Paul Sporer: Exactly. Hitting a baseball is the hardest thing to do in sports.

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I have to get going. Recording a Fireside on Nick Pivetta with Nick. Hit me up on Twitter (@sporer) or Twitch (twitch.tv/sporer) if you have questions over the weekend!