Patrick Corbin: A Tale of Two Halves
Entering the 2013 season, Patrick Corbin was one of my top sleeper targets. I had enjoyed the left-hander’s debut in 2012, when he was an above average stream-starter for my fantasy teams. Last season, I drafted him in all of my leagues, although I sold him before his best – and worst – work in all but one league. According to Zach Sanders, Corbin was worth $12.57 last season. As we’ll soon discover together, it was a very front-heavy performance. A disappointing finish to the season makes him an uncertain target for the 2014 season.
Since Corbin isn’t the most well-known pitcher, let’s get to know his repertoire. He uses a four pitch mix and his usage varies based on the batter’s handedness. Chart time:
As you can see, Corbin pitches “forwards,” meaning that he throws fastballs in fastball counts and offspeed pitches in offspeed counts. He could potentially benefit from mixing that up and becoming a little less predictable. His slider is his best pitch and he likes to use it when ahead in the count. His change-up is reserved purely to keep right-handed hitters off balance. His sinker is also used much more frequently against righties.
He posted solid peripherals, with a 7.69 K/9 and 2.33 BB/9. He’s shown aptitude for keeping his pitch count down, which should help him pitch deep into ball games. That gives him a chance to record more wins, even if it hurts his strikeout total somewhat.
Corbin figures to be one of the better bets to remain healthy for a full season. He’s young and has been durable thus far. Per Jeff Zimmerman’s projection, there’s a 30 percent chance that he’ll land on the disabled list, which is one of the lowest rates available.
He rushed out to a quick 9-0 record last season, with excellent rate stats before trailing off. If you split his season into halves, he posted a 2.35 ERA in the first half over 130 innings and a 5.19 ERA in the second half over 78 innings. It was really the months of August and September that he struggled, when he posted a 5.13 and 7.04 ERA respectively. Those marks are probably fluky. While his FIP did decline over those months, he pitched to a 3.83 FIP in August and a 4.91 FIP in September.
Breaking performance into month long chunks is generally only useful as trivia and it’s important not to read too much into the tiny samples involved. What we know is that his peripherals declined as the season wore on, which could indicate an injury or simple fatigue. One proxy test for those issues is to track velocity. If velocity declines, then it’s a sign that the pitcher is not working at full strength.
As you can see from the chart, his velocity peaked mid-season. He opened the season throwing around 92 mph, peaked between 93 and 94 mph in June and July, and finally declined back to 92 mph in September. The degree of fluctuation seen is typical and is by no means a smoking gun. My best guess is that he was fatigued at the end of the season. Another explanation is that hitters made an adjustment to one or more of his offerings. Perhaps the most likely explanation is that the change is performance is purely noise.
Based on the ADP info over at Fantasy Pros, Corbin went undrafted in most leagues last season. Of tracked pitchers, he was the 174th ranked pitcher, which also happened to make him dead last. There’s no risk of that happening next season. With the amount of uncertainty in his profile, Corbin’s price tag is likely to vary wildly. I estimate costs ranging from $7 to $18, although we will learn more about that later in the offseason.
Your decision on whether or not to target Corbin will depend on your personal expectations. Neither his potent first half nor his poor second half are indicative of his true talent. We should probably expect an ERA in the mid-to-high 3’s (Steamer projects a 3.72 ERA for example). His strikeout rate is a minor concern since it’s neither good nor bad. Owners should aim to pick up an elite strikeout reliever to offset Corbin’s contribution. I don’t expect an improvement on his 2013 season, and I believe that he’s most likely to produce a value of about $8 next season.
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His xFIP was exactly the same in the first and second half last year, but he gave up HRs at a much higher rate in the second half. Would that be consistent with fatigue, or more likely just a fluke?
One of the issues, however, is Corbin does play in a park where homers are more common than not. Whether or not this is due to fatigue or luck, it still happens. Because his K rate isn’t that high, he is prone to some unfavorable variance. Trumbo won’t help; Pollock/Parra will help, though.
30% chance to end up on the DL is one of the lowest projected rates? That’s surprising to me. Maybe I’ve overestimated SPs durability for a singular season. On average, what percent of SP’s make a DL trip per year? I know this might be difficult to access/calculate. But, what percent of (let’s say SPs that are 1 through 4 in the their team’s rotation to start the season) would you anticipate landing on the DL at some point this year?
It’s worth pointing out that the scope of the projected injury is not estimated. It’s a 30% chance for any 15 day DL stint, but he probably has a lower risk of say a UCL tear then most other pitchers.
Really fun pitcher to watch. I liked his upside and grabbed him at the start of the 2013 season in my keeper league. Sold him high at the beginning of June for Cespedes (when his value was plummeting.)
If I had to pick the next ‘Corbin’ like perfomance next year I would probably look towards Drew Smyly, especially if he has a great spring. Young and talented, without having the prospect pedigree that gets you much flair. (I think Smyly might have squeezed his way into one or two top 100 prospect lists in 2012.)
I’ll bet on a guy with a 10.7% SwgStk(11th) and a 70.2% F-Strike(1st). My concern is that he is essentially a 2 pitcher pitcher with one outstanding pitcher. He needs to develop his changeup, not for platoon issues, but to keep batters on their feet.
Shelby Miller has the same problem. He has an incredible Fastball and Curve. But the change isn’t there and he doesn’t have a slider. So as guys see you more they realize they can sit on the fastball or the breaking ball. It can be a good pitch, but good hitters can hit good pitches they know are coming.
You can get by with two plus pitches and an average one in the baseball. But you really need three plus pitches to be good.
Or those two pitches need to be truly plus-plus.
I agree that his limited repertoire is a big reason why I’m not super excited about his prospects in 2014. That’s why I guestimated a decline from $12.50 to $8.