Outfield ADP Market Report: 12/18/2022

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

Fernando Tatis Jr. (+7.73)- See the article in this series on shortstops.

Daulton Varsho (+7.89)- See the article in this series on catchers. 

Adolis García (+8.37)- Garcia is rising after another fantastic season in which he proved a lot of the doubters wrong, including myself. However, I still struggle buying into him completely with the atrocious plate skills. He had the third worst zone contact, fourth worst swinging strike rate, and ninth worst O-swing in the Major Leagues. On the plus side, his defense is fantastic and will keep him in the lineup even if he goes through extended cod streaks. I don’t think I can pay a top 100 price, but I am not going to beat up those that will.  

Eloy Jiménez (+11.32)- It is not surprising to see Eloy rising after he had a missive second half where he was fifth in the Majors in wRC+ in the second half. I think the news that he will be a full time DH in the Majors has quelled a lot of the fears around his struggles with injuries. Eloy was a top four round pick the last few years and when he has been on the field, he has warranted that hype. Had he been returning to the outfield, I likely would have faded him as well, but with the protection of the DH, I am back on board and ready to be hurt again. 

 

Top 100 Players Falling

Luis Robert Jr. (-8.42)- Unlike his teammate, Robert still has a lot of people fading him due to injury concerns. Robert has struggled to put together a full season due to injuries, but when he has been on the field he has been a five category stud. I think the price will rise if he enters spring training healthy, but I am likely not going to take that kind of risk unless the price continues to fall. 

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Seiya Suzuki (+25.21)- This one is kind of a bummer for me. I have had Suzuki on my “sleeper” list for quite a while, but clearly everyone else has too. Suzuki was the only player in baseball with a top 25 zone contact rate and top 25 barrel percentage in the second half. While he struggled to start the season and with injuries, once back healthy, he was clearly more comfortable at the plate and in the Majors. I hope the price doesn’t go much higher because he will begin to price himself out of being useful. 

Jake McCarthy (+22.42)- If you weren’t in contention last season, then you might have missed what McCarthy did in the second half. He hit .300 with five home runs and 21 stolen bases in that time, winning a lot of people’s fantasy championships in the process. Add that to the fact Steamer has him for 15 home runs and 28 stolen bases and a .258 average and there’s no confusion to why he is jumping up the ADP. However, I definitely think there is some regression coming. He swings out of the zone a fair amount and his swinging strike rate in the second half was 13.6% so there is no way he can maintain a 17.6% strikeout rate. I kind of think he is more of a 10/20 guy than a 15/25 which makes him useful but not the stud people are drafting him as. 

Oscar Gonzalez (+13.79)- Gonzalez came up as kind of an unknown prospect and was fantastic, hitting .296/.327/.461 with 11 home runs and a stolen base while striking out less than 20% of the time. He surprisingly had a pretty decent zone contact and there clearly is a ton of power in the bat. However, he was one of the most aggressive hitters in baseball with the highest swing percentage among qualified hitters in the second half including a 49.9% o-swing (2nd in baseball) and a 14.3% swinging strike rate (13th). I worry that pitchers are going to adjust and he won’t be able to adjust back with his approach. He could definitely be this year’s Adolis Garcia, but I am not buying at the price especially with it going up. 

Joey Meneses (+33.68)- See the article in this series on first basemen.

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Byron Buxton (-15.84)- I am surprised to see Buxton fall because he always has his supporters no matter what. He was on the road to a massive season before injury struck him down once again. I think the question becomes: at what point is Buxton a bargain? You know he will miss time, but the upside is amazing and if he continues to fall, the price becomes worth taking on the risk. With the lack of depth in the outfield this year, I might rather take the risk on Buxton than a lot of the guys going behind him. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Lars Nootbaar (+27.05)- Nootbaar was another name I had circled as a potential “sleeper” candidate as the season was wrapping up, but then he hit a really rough patch in September. I was hoping maybe that could depress his value but it doesn’t appear so. Unfortunately, the addition of Willson Contreras means he likely moves down the lineup, but there is power and speed in the profile and unless the Cardinals add an outfielder, he should get first shot in one of the corner spots. There is some risk here as both Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn could move to the outfield and be up at some point early. He will need to hit to stay up, but he has shown a great approach and is still affordable enough for now.  

Bryan De La Cruz (+31.16)- At first I was pretty surprised to see De La Cruz rising so fast. After some research, I can understand why. De La Cruz has some pretty impressive StatCast numbers when it comes to his exit velocities and barrel rates and is a pretty decent defender. Manager Skip Schumaker also recently said he expects De La Cruz to get 500 plate appearances this year as well. He can be pretty aggressive which comes with some risk, but the contact numbers aren’t bad. I think this is a decent risk/reward play. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Christopher Morel (-28.84)- See the article in this series on second basemen. 

Jarred Kelenic (-31.47)- I don’t know what to do with Kelenic. He has dominated the minor leagues and been atrocious in the Majors. I wonder if a lot of his Major League struggles are mental rather than physical. I tend to want to bet on talent and Kelenic still has that talent, but the question is will he be able to unlock it in the Majors? 

Trey Mancini (-20.21)- It is not surprising to see Mancini drop considering he does not have a team yet and he really struggled after being traded to Houston. I fully expect him to sign somewhere, but will he have an every day role? He has first base and outfield eligibility which is valuable. If he gets a full time job, he could be a great value. 

 

Others of Note

Masataka Yoshida (+335.95)- Yoshida was bound to have a huge rise once he signed so seeing him jump like he has is expected. He will be on this list again in the next run as he finds himself in Boston with the potential to lead off. It is hard to know how he will translate in the Majors, but I would think that he is similar to teammate Alex Verdugo with 15ish home runs and a handful of stolen bases with a high on base percentage. I worry that he will become too expensive as the shiny new toy, but right now, he is decently priced as a guy that should rack up a ton of runs. 

Bubba Thompson (-34.53)- I thought Thompson would be a lot more popular considering the end of his season where racked up 18 stolen bases in just two months of action in the Majors. However, I think a lot of people are scared about the atrocious plate skills, which is where I am at. He had a 17.6% swinging strike rate and a 40% O-swing. If he can’t improve those skills, he won’t be in the Majors. 

Tommy Pham (-60.42)- Pham is dropping because he doesn’t have a team and he struggled after being traded to Boston. I am pretty sure he will find a landing spot somewhere as he still hits the ball very hard and can take a walk. I think he represents a pretty nice value at this point in draft season.