Outfield ADP Market Report: 1/31/2026

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

None

Top 100 Players Falling

None

Top 200 Players Rising

Alec Burleson (+20.47) – Burleson is rising with the likelihood that he will hit full time and not platoon in St. Louis. He hit .271 versus left-handed pitchers and his BABIP there was not super inflated. Burleson is just a great hitter. He had an 88% Z-Contact and an 8% swinging strike rate with his best power metrics of his career. He is still affordable as long as he doesn’t continue to climb too much. 

Top 200 Players Falling

Oneil Cruz (-10.38) – Cruz is continuing to drop after an atrocious second half where he hit just .177 with four home runs and stealing nine bases. This is the risk of a hitter like Cruz who struggles with consistent contact. The upside is immense as his 20/38 season shows, but there will be massive cold streaks that can crush your batting average. One of the other big issues with Cruz is he is likely going to platoon which limits his upside. 

Kyle Stowers (-11.55) – Stowers is coming off of a breakout season after being traded to the Marlins where he hit .288/.368/.544 with 25 home runs and five stolen bases in just 457 plate appearances. So, why is he falling? Well, it may have to do with his underlying numbers. He struck out 27.4% of the time and with a 16% swinging strike rate and a 78.4% Z-Contact, that may actually go up. While the power metrics are impressive, he definitely had some luck with a 23% HR/FB rate and a high BABIP. He is likely more of a .235 hitter than the .288 hitter he showed in 2025 that is a lot of risk with the talent around him. 

Chandler Simpson (-19.3) – Simpson is continuing to drop after the additions to the outfield that the Rays made this offseason in Cedric Mullins, Jake Fraley and Jacob Melton which could complicate his playing time. The Rays have moved Josh Lowe to Anaheim which does help cement Simpson’s playing time more. Simpson is a flawed fantasy player, having elite speed and a good hit tool, but not a ton else because of his lack of power. He has the ability to steal 50+ bases and that makes him valuable, but there is a risk that he gets sent back down to the minors if the Rays don’t value that as much as fantasy managers do. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Adolis Garcia (+39.36) – Garcia is rising after signing a one year deal in Philly. Adolis is coming off of a disappointing season where he hit 19 home runs and stole 13 bases with a .227/.271/.394 in 547 plate appearances. The contact skills and approach have been bad for a while, but he continues to make a lot of hard contact. His defense will keep him in the lineup, but there is a lot of downside risk with the batting average. 

Wilyer Abreu (+15.69) – Abreu is rising after an up and down season. He was fantastic in the first half, hitting 18 home runs and stealing five bases in the first half before injuring his calf and then struggling down the stretch. Abreu seems to have right field locked down in Boston, but there is risk because he has historically struggled versus lefties and with Kristian Campbell moving to the outfield, there will be a roster crunch at some point. 

Ryan O’Hearn (+25.67) – O’Hearn is rising after signing a deal to play left field in Pittsburgh. O’Hearn was a good player in Baltimore, but will now be given a chance to play full time and not platoon for the Pirates. That may be a mistake though. While he hit .278 against lefties last season, he had a .358 BABIP versus them and is a career .217 hitter versus southpaws with a .283 BABIP. Exposing him versus lefties regularly could hurt his average a lot and then he would be a lot less interesting as an overall fantasy player since he lacks true plus power in a tough park to hit for it. 

Justin Crawford (+35.11) – Crawford is rising after the Phillies have said they expect him to be a part of the regular outfield in 2026. Crawford doesn’t have much power, but he has a ton of speed and a good hit tool. There are going to be questions given the lack of power whether he will be able to make it work at the plate in the Majors or if big league pitchers will try and knock the bat out of his hand. Clearly the Phillies believe in him and he is a good enough defender that he should stay in the lineup even if he struggles out of the gate. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Addison Barger (-22.13) – Read the piece in this series on third basemen. 

Kerry Carpenter (-15.97) – Carpenter is dropping after a good season but one where he platooned on the strong side. Carpenter is not going to hit against lefties, but that might be for the best since he struggles against southpaws. What he does is mash against righties. 23 of his 26 homers were versus right handed pitching and he makes really hard contact against them. He is a very aggressive hitter which can lead to slumps, but the overall line will be impressive especially for roto leagues.

Others of Note

Willi Castro (+52.08) –  Read the piece in this series on third basemen. 

Isaac Collins (+38.04) – Collins is rising after being traded to the Royals. Collins was great in his rookie season for the Brewers, hitting .263/.368/.411 with nine home runs and 16 stolen bases in 441 plate appearances. He doesn’t hit the ball hard, but he makes a lot of contact and has speed. His defense should give him a shot to play every day even if there are struggles and the price is still decent if it doesn’t go up too much more. 

Jeff McNeil (+84.57) – Read the piece in this series on second basemen.

Owen Cassie (+61.26) – Cassie is rising after being traded to the Marlins this offseason in the Edward Cabrera trade. Cassie is a top prospect with a lot of power, but he struggles with consistent contact. The Marlins have no reason not to play him, but he is projected to hit at the bottom of the lineup and platoon which really limits his upside along with the bad hit tool. 

Jake McCarthy (+175.76) – McCarthy is rising after being traded to the Rockies. McCarthy has shown the ability to be a stolen base threat, but struggled to get consistent playing time in Arizona. That won’t be a problem and while there isn’t a ton of power, his defense should keep him on the field and the thin air and larger outfield in Colorado should give him an inflated BABIP. A great deep league gamble even with the big price jump.