ottoneu Trade Recap: Shipping out the Panda
For the greater good, I try not to recap every fantasy trade I make. First of all, most of you probably don’t care about every trade I make. Second, I really like making trades (seriously, tweet @ottoneu and ask about Chad’s trades, Niv will tell you all about it), and so I would end up writing nothing but trade recap posts.
But once in a while, a trade happens that I think is worthy of a recap. And in my first trade in the new ottoneu FanGraphs Staff League, I believe I have made one of those recap-worthy trades: Pablo Sandoval and Hong-Chih Kuo for Matt Thornton and Paul Goldschmidt.
It’s not often that I am excited about a pre-season trade in which I am giving up the best player. And I think it goes without saying that Sandoval is the best player in this deal. You may have high hopes for Goldschmidt (and I do!) but he is an unproven talent at a deep position, while Sandoval is a young star with a track record at a position that is…less deep.
But, my friends, context is everything. Sandoval as a 3B is more valuable than Goldschmidt as a 1B, no question about it. And I believe that is why Steve Slowinski made the trade. He was going to be starting Mark Trumbo, who I project at 567 points, at 3B, assuming that his 3B eligibility came along. His backup 3B was…well…no one. Sandoval I project at 832 points, representing a huge upgrade for his Hartford Whalers. In the meantime, he had Goldschmidt (790 points) and Eric Hosmer (831 points) splitting time at 1B and Util with Carlos Lee (682 points) among others waiting in the wings. So he sees a 265 point jump at 3B, stays steady at 1B (with Hosmer) and loses 108 points at Util. Solid net gain.
On the other hand, Sandoval was not my 3B – he was my Util. I have Ryan Zimmerman locking down 3B, which means I can swap Sandoval for Goldschmidt directly. His 157 point improvement on offense was just a 42 point loss for my offense. But I have Thornton as a 527 point reliever and Kuo at only 266 points, although I think that estimate is very low, as it assumes only 40 IP, and I think Kuo has huge upside beyond that. Plus, the Whalers have a deeper pen, so Kuo becomes a depth/upside option, and Thornton gets replaced by Grant Balfour, who I project at 398 points BEFORE he was named closer. So in this case, my gain does not cause Slowinski a huge loss.
From my end, there were two more benefits. First, I got younger and deeper at 1B, where I have Mark Teixeira backed up by Justin Morneau. Second, I saved a bunch of money – I traded away $25 in salary ($24 for Panda, $1 for Kuo) and took on $14 ($8 for Thornton, $6 for Goldschmidt) while only loaning away $5, netting me $5 of cap space to use later this year.
The Whalers got the best player, a big boost on offense, and a much needed starting 3B; my She’s Just Not that Shin-Soo Choo (named by the illustrious readers of NotGraphs) squad got an improved pen, an injection of youth, and some cap space. And in the process, neither my hitting nor Slowinski’s pitching had to take much of a hit. A classic win-win.
Of course even in a win-win, someone wins more – but I am not going to touch that one. I’ll leave up to you in the comments.
A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's is the Managing Editor for RotoGraphs, and can be heard on the Keep or Kut Podcast. You can follow him on Bluesky @chadyoung.bsky.social.
Yawn.
Slow news day?
I like the trade better for she’s just not that shin-soo Choo. 3B is deeper this year so it doesn’t hurt much (especially when you already have Zimmerman) you got a better reliever, saved a significant amount of money and got a young cheap player who can produce 800 points with upside. He got a huge upgrade going from Trumbo to panda but in a deal where everything is about equal I say the winner is the guy who makes his financial outlook better
Was Kuo just released though? Or is the thought he will be resigned.
Kuo was released two days ago. He’s pretty much worthless in fantasy. Even if he does sign with another team, we’re talking about a foreign 30-something reliever with control and anxiety issues. Considering opportunity costs, I rather have $0 and an empty roster spot than a $1 Kuo.
I’m not that high on Paul Goldschmidt. His upside is Nick Swisher. His downside is Carlos Pena. Goldschmidt was rushed to the Majors so he’ll probably underperform during his first full year. If you’re looking for power with upside, why not pick up someone cheap like Mike Carp or Bryan LaHair?
As for Thornton, his upside is muted due to the presence of Addison Reed. Chris Sale is in the rotation now. Aside from Thornton, the White Sox don’t have a reliable LHP in the bullpen. He may have the talent to close, but he’s more important to the team as a situational lefty. I’d be surprised if he closes for more than a month.
In the end, I just don’t see any tangible assets on the Thornton/Goldschmidt side. Sandoval is a fantastic, proven young player signed to a fair contract at a shallow position. Justin Morneau is another player who is inferior to the $0 empty roster spot. Having a prospect as your primary backup is a risky decision – especially considering that prospect’s platoon splits. Shedding cap is fine, but you’re taking on significant risk with aging/unproven players and there’s a price to pay for that.
I would have asked for more than a 35-year-old reliever and a promising prospect who may or may not succeed in the majors.
“His downside is Carlos Pena.” By Carlos Pena do you mean the Carlos Pena who has never had fewer than 28 HR and 87 BB in any of the past five seasons? Or some other Carlos Pena?
Yes: what Hernandez said. Having a talent level nestled between Carlos Pena and Nick Swiser, two good offensive players, is pretty sweet for $6.
Who are you high on, Chike? Albert Pujols?
I think he was referencing the Carlos Pena who also destroys your BA while hitting those homers, and if you aren’t in an OBP league those walk become irrelevant.
Just as Earl said – Carlos Pena is one of those +3, -1 type production players. If we’re talking about a 4×4 OBP-type league, then Pena has a bit more value. In a standard 5×5 league, there’s really no point in doing that to yourself. “Cleaner” sources of power are available.
Nick Swisher (tier 3) is the 47th best outfielder available and he’s in his prime. Carlos Pena (tier 4) is the 34th best first baseman. There just isn’t much value in players that hit home runs at the expense of their batting average.
I think its the same Carlos Pena who strikes out 160 times a year and whose BA has been known to flirt with the mendoza line at times. Hes a fine source of cheap power but not someone I would trade a top third baseman for, even if I do get Nick Swisher numbers and a closer on the verge of being replaced.
Well I was thinking about Pena’s value in ottoneu terms. Since the article is about an ottoneu trade and whatnot.
It seems the best way to analyze this trade is to translate the projected points into salaries, and then illustrate how your side is a net value gain.
On the other hand, if you’ve already done this and don’t want to tip your hand I completely understand.