Ottoneu Top 20 First Basemen for 2020
Using a format similar to the one Paul Sporer recently posted for 2020 Roto player rankings, below is the 2020 ranking of the Top 20 First Basemen for Ottoneu fantasy baseball. Ottoneu leagues are auction style, but with no salaries listed (league dependent), think of these lists as simplified “snake draft” rankings (“which player would I take before the next”), or a value ranking of players above replacement level for 2020. Players with multi-position eligibility may receive a slight bump in value (2020 positions listed). You can reference average Ottoneu player salaries here, but keep in mind these salaries fluctuate throughout the winter as rosters shape up towards the January 31st keeper deadline for all leagues.
Since a majority of Ottoneu leagues are points leagues (offense based on linear weights), you’ll notice speed is less of a factor here than Paul’s rotisserie ranking lists. Even if you don’t play Ottoneu, this list might be a good proxy for OBP, OPS, or sabermetric leagues, so keep that context in mind as you review. If I’ve missed an important player, or you believe I’ve wildly over or under-valued someone, please let me know in the comments and I’ll be sure to update.
In 2019, the 29 qualified first basemen averaged the following production:
- 5.88 Points Per Game (P/G)
- 30 HR
- 10% BB%
- 22% K%
- .227 ISO
- .268 AVG
- .353 OBP
- .495 SLG
- .354 wOBA
- 120 wRC+
| RK | Player | 2020 POS | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Bellinger | 1B/OF | One of only six players above 8.0+ Points per Game; only 24 y/o + OF |
| 2 | Freddie Freeman | 1B | Worth the price of prime consistency above almost anyone else at 1B |
| 3 | Pete Alonso | 1B | The most power at the position, and possibly the most in the game |
| 4 | Josh Bell | 1B | .408 wOBA 1st half; .326 in 2nd; young enough (27) to improve |
| 5 | Anthony Rizzo | 1B | Only 30 years old and still a steady producer despite less power than most |
| 6 | Max Muncy | 1B/2B/3B | 35 home runs makes him valuable in three key spots for 2020 |
| 7 | DJ LeMahieu | 1B/2B/3B | .349 BABIP hard to repeat but NYY, 20+ HR, and xwOBA make him a mainstay solution |
| 8 | Hunter Dozier | 1B/3B/OF | Top seven in Hard Hit % makes 2019 breakout appear real; 3B/OF helps |
| 9 | Rhys Hoskins | 1B | Upcoming age 27 season makes big bounceback likely in 2020 |
| 10 | Carlos Santana | 1B | Excellent 135 wRC+ won’t repeat but 1.0 BB/K rate gives confidence |
| 11 | Miguel Sano | 1B/3B | 53% Hard Hit % trailed only Judge in 2nd half; he’ll be 27 y/o |
| 12 | Matt Olson | 1B | Elite Hard Hit % and abilty to pull ball make big breakout likely |
| 13 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | Stolen bases (3) are gone, and power is now sporadic |
| 14 | Trey Mancini | 1B/OF | A quietly excellent season on a bad team; great bargain in this group |
| 15 | Luke Voit | 1B | Strong per game value but expect another ~120 games or so |
| 16 | Edwin Encarnacion | 1B | Age 37 and home ballpark will be key factors in 2020 value |
| 17 | Jose Abreu | 1B | AL RBI leader likely to resign with CHW for another ~.340 wOBA season |
| 18 | Joey Votto | 1B | Expect a recovery above a career-worst .332 wOBA |
| 19 | Christian Walker | 1B | If he gets another 600+ PA, he’s a possible 40 HR candidate |
| 20 | Yulieski Gurriel | 1B/3B | He’ll be 36, but he just keeps hitting |
If you’re interested in tools and resources to help find or create your own Ottoneu player values ($), bookmark the community site, which will be updated often. You can also find a ranking of these players on the 2020 version of the Surplus Calculator.
Trey is a 20+ year fantasy veteran and an early adopter of Ottoneu fantasy sports. He currently administers the Ottoneu community, a network of ~1,200 fantasy baseball and football fans talking sports daily. More resources here: http://community.ottoneu.com
Ottoneu top position lists?! I love it. Thank you, Trey. Will you be doing all positions or just select ones such as this one?
I also love the average pts/gm that you quoted above. 5.88 is really high for 1B. It really makes one think twice about spending any significant money on a first baseman who is below average.
Thanks for reading. The plan is to do each position, and roll out slowly throughout the winter. For first base, I see a few tiers, with Bellingers/Freeman in 1, Alonso/Bell/Rizzo/Muncy in 2, and then DJM to Mancini probably in 3. There should be some good values there.
Rizzo HBP domination is an added bonus
I’m surprised Matt Olson has been getting ranked so low. Because of an injury (+ surgery) on his hamate bone in his right hand, he only played 127 games this season . Despite missing almost 6 weeks of play and only having 483 ABs with fear that his injury would sap his power, he still managed to hit 36 HRs, drive in 91 RBIs, score 73 runs, have a 277 ISO, 134 wRC+ and a 368 wOBA with roughly league average BA (267) and OB (351) for first basemen. Not that it matters much in fantasy other than job security, but it’s also nice that he has a Gold Glove.
He’s also younger than everyone else on this list except Alonso and Bellinger. Seems weird to omit when age is cited for other players in or against their favor but not Olson. This is nit-picking at this point but I’d much rather have him over Sano for example who has had a litany of reliability issues over the years.
That’s a great point – he’s only 25 years old!
Olson will play all of 2020 at age 26, and of that third tier (see comment above), I like Sano and Olson the best for breakouts. But I still have Sano a tick above in value, if not for the 3B eligibility but also the fact that Olson is still doing almost all his damage against RHP only. Decent bet both Sano and Olson end 2020 more valuable than anyone on this list below Muncy.
Thanks Trey. I just see Olson’s ceiling being much higher than many of the names above him and his floor being very solid as well. He won’t play all of his 2020 games at age 26. The season starts on March 26th and he doesn’t turn 26 until March 29th. 😉
I think Olson has as much power as Alonso, or at least very, very close. His career HR numbers are pretty absurd, and in my eyes he is the only “sure thing” in the entire MLB for 40hrs in 162 games regardless of what baseball they are using.
Not sure I would be expecting a bounce back from Votto. Two years in a row of declining output now. Seems like he is hitting the steep part of the aging curve. Personally, I would take Ji-Man Choi (and his platoon role) over Votto.
Yeah, he’s 36 years old, and even his prodigious K/BB numbers took a turn downhill this year.
I was a relatively happy Jose Abreu owner this year and at 945 pts. / 5.95 ppg would have guessed he was much more above average and higher on the list for next year. He was the 9th highest scoring 1Ber, though, so I guess you are assuming some significant regression. I suppose some of his value for 2019 was that he played almost every game, driving down his PPG. But I wonder if this is as important for single positions like 1B — in that there’s value in having someone consistent every day. Anyway, some random thoughts about why an almost-1,000 pt. 2019 first-basemen is ranked at #17 for next year. At $27 for me, he’s a borderline keeper, and this post gives me something to think about.
Raw (total) points are still important, so your point about Abreu playing a consistent 150+ games is a good one. On a per game basis I think Voit and EE are more interesting, for example, but having a guy like Abreu to just “set and forget” is valuable, assuming he resigns with CHW (likely). There’s not much of a gap here in between those guys at the end, but I also don’t think Abreu is good value at $27; I believe he entered 2019 with an estimated value around $15 and I’d expect something somewhat similar in 2020. Perception plays a role here too…Hoskins had a very similar 2019 to Abreu, but since he’s younger and has a more interesting PPG resume, I’d expect him to be priced almost double (~$30) what Abreu goes for in many auctions next year.
PA accumulators with mediocre ppg averaged always seem like the worst value in Ottoneu to me. Given the deep benches, I’ve found way more value in getting cheaper platoon-able players who end up with similar ppg but lower individual totals. The only “set and forget” types that make sense to me are the true studs.
curious where Canha would slot in? I know he’s probably more valuable at OF though
Canha had a great season (.386 wOBA in career high 126 games). I’d place him near the top of the next five (21-25), along with guys like B. Lowe, Smoak, Y. Diaz. I could see an argument for Canha over Yuli considering age and OF eligibility.
I’d take Cron over the bottom 3 and EE (.273/.530 xBA/xSLUG in ’19)
With thumb injuries and a well below average walk rate he’s still too risky for me there.