Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 27–June 2
Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.
I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.
A few general schedule notes:
- The Braves have a nice pair of home matchups against the Nationals and A’s next week. They’re in the midst of a long stretch of games without an off day which means they might turn to a sixth starter next week to keep the workload off their starters, so make sure you’re checking the announced starters for their games.
- The Cubs also have a couple of easier matchups against the Twins and Reds. I can’t unreservedly recommend starting every pitcher in their rotation, but even guys like Jameson Taillon or Ben Brown are good bets to turn in decent starts next week.
- The rest of the schedule is pretty mixed and there isn’t really a team who is facing a particularly tough week. The Rockies probably come the closest as they have a series at home against the Guardians and then head to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers. You’re probably not rostering any Colorado starters anyway though.
Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.
Maybe it comes down to how we’re defining “maybe”, but as an owner of both King and Musgrove (on the same team!), I struggle to see how they can even be as high as “maybe”.
Musgrove:
Last 10 starts (including one from 2023, but just for easy numbers) averaging 11 P/GS. 3 of his 2024 starts had > 15 points.
King:
Has certainly fared better, but his 21 P/GS in the last 10 is inflated by 2 60 point performances.
This isn’t really a challenge statement as much as maybe a clarification of how to view “maybe” vs “risky”.
Good question. King’s matchups against the Marlins and Royals are pretty nice despite his up-and-down performance recently. In his case, I’m betting on his talent and I like the opponent quality and ballparks he’s pitching in.
For Musgrove, I’d understand wanting to bench him until he shows something positive. His underlying Stuff+ all look great despite not seeing any positive results so far. Kansas City is a pretty favorable park for pitchers and the Royals don’t hit that many home runs as a team. If you have the ability to skip his start because your innings pitched pace is on-track or you have enough starts to cover the cap in a H2H matchup, then I’d consider keeping him benched.
Makes perfect sense, thanks for the reply!