Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 20–26

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence.

A few general schedule notes:

• After playing the Dodgers in Los Angeles this weekend, the Reds return home for a tough homestand against the Padres and the Dodgers (again). That makes for a pretty tough slate of matchups for their starters. Philadelphia also has a tougher schedule next week with three against the Rangers and then a weekend series in Colorado. Thanks to his elite groundball rate, Ranger Suárez might be the only pitcher who you’d want to start in Coors Field, though you’d have to be pretty desperate for the innings to take that risk.
• There are a bunch of teams who have a pair of easier matchups lined up for next week: the Blue Jays, Brewers, Giants, Orioles, and Rays. For the most part, you’ll want to start any of the pitchers you own from those teams, though I’d be a little weary of the weekend series the Brewers have in Boston. The Red Sox offense has been scuffling a bit recently, but they’re much more potent at home.
• Pitchers possibly coming off the Injured List sometime next week include Kenta Maeda, Tylor Megill, Ryan Pepiot, Grayson Rodriguez, Blake Snell, José Urquidy, and Garrett Whitlock. In general, I recommend waiting a start or two before inserting an injured starter back into your lineup, but Rodriguez’s projected start against the White Sox might be too good to pass up.