Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner: May 12–18

Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the Ottoneu Starting Pitching Planner. Based on the Roster Resource Probables Grid, I’ve organized every starter slated to start next week into four categories: start, maybe, risky, and sit. The first and last category are pretty self-explanatory. Starters who fall into the “maybe” category are guys you could start if you need to keep up with the innings pitched pace in points leagues or need to hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues; they’re good bets to turn in a decent start, but you shouldn’t automatically insert them into your lineup. If you’ve fallen behind on the innings pitched pace or you’re really starving for starts in a head-to-head matchup, you could turn to a “risky” starter or two.

I’ve also calculated a “Matchup Score” for each series using a straight combination of opponent’s home/away wOBA, opponent wOBA over the last 14 days, and the park factor for the ballpark the teams are playing in. It’s indexed so that 100 is average and anything above that is a favorable matchup and anything below is unfavorable. That matchup rating informs some of the sit/start recommendations I’m making, though the quality of the pitcher definitely takes precedence. I should also note that I’ve updated the way I’m calculating the park factors for the two new minor league stadiums that the Athletics and Rays are playing in this year; I’m taking the one-year park factors from Statcast and regressing them towards neutral, with the one-year factors increasing in weight as more games are played in those stadiums (those series are still marked in yellow below).

May 12–18
Team Series 1 Matchup Series 2 Matchup Start Maybe Risky Sit
ARI @SFG (134) COL (163) Brandon Pfaadt, Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen Merrill Kelly 켈리 (x2), Eduardo Rodriguez
ATH @LAD (27) @SFG (134) Luis Severino JP Sears, Jeffrey Springs (@SFG) Gunnar Hoglund Springs (@LAD), Osvaldo Bido
ATL WSN (107) @BOS (46) Spencer Schwellenbach (x2), Chris Sale AJ Smith-Shawver Grant Holmes (x2), Bryce Elder
BAL MIN (115) WSN (123) Zach Eflin Cade Povich (x2), Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano Kyle Gibson
BOS @DET (64) ATL (93) Garrett Crochet Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Walker Buehler (?), Lucas Giolito
CHC MIA (132) CHW (140) Colin Rea (x2), Matthew Boyd Ben Brown, Jameson Taillon, Cade Horton
CHW @CIN (92) @CHC (106) Shane Smith Jonathan Cannon (x2), Davis Martin, Bryse Wilson, Sean Burke
CIN CHW (92) CLE (49) Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez Brady Singer, Andrew Abbott Chase Petty (?)
CLE MIL (122) @CIN (92) Ben Lively 라이블리 (vMIL), Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee Logan Allen로건, Luis L. Ortiz, Lively (@CIN)
COL @TEX (129) @ARI (81) Kyle Freeland, Ryan Feltner Chase Dollander (x2), Antonio Senzatela, Germán Márquez
DET BOS (79) @TOR (117) Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Reese Olson Casey Mize Jackson Jobe (x2)
HOU KCR (91) @TEX (129) Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown Hayden Wesneski (x2), Ryan Gusto, Lance McCullers Jr., Ronel Blanco
KCR @HOU (102) STL (86) Michael Wacha (x2), Kris Bubic, Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo Michael Lorenzen
LAA @SDP (110) @LAD (27) Yusei Kikuchi (@SDP), José Soriano Kikuchi (@LAD) Kyle Hendricks, Jack Kochanowicz, Tyler Anderson
LAD ATH (59) LAA (123) Yoshinobu Yamamoto Tony Gonsolin (x2), Dustin May, Ben Casparius (F) Roki Sasaki
MIA @CHC (106) TBR (144) Max Meyer, Sandy Alcantara Edward Cabrera Cal Quantrill, Valente Bellozo, Ryan Weathers (?)
MIL @CLE (137) MIN (90) Freddy Peralta Jose Quintana Chad Patrick (x2), Quinn Priester, Tobias Myers
MIN @BAL (128) @MIL (137) Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Pablo López Simeon Woods Richardson (x2), Chris Paddack
NYM PIT (168) @NYY (32) David Peterson (vPIT), Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes Tylor Megill, Peterson (@NYY) Griffin Canning
NYY @SEA (95) NYM (32) Max Fried (x2) Will Warren, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt Ryan Yarbrough
PHI STL (81) PIT (146) Cristopher Sánchez (x2), Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Zack Wheeler
PIT @NYM (78) @PHI (43) Paul Skenes (x2) Mitch Keller, Andrew Heaney Bailey Falter Carmen Mlodzinski
SDP LAA (138) SEA (50) Michael King (x2), Dylan Cease Nick Pivetta Randy Vásquez Stephen Kolek
SEA NYY (68) @SDP (110) Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller Luis Castillo Emerson Hancock (x2) Logan Evans
SFG ARI (110) ATH (91) Logan Webb Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Landen Roupp Justin Verlander (x2)
STL @PHI (43) @KCR (96) Matthew Liberatore (x2), Sonny Gray Erick Fedde 페디, Andre Pallante, Miles Mikolas
TBR @TOR (117) @MIA (124) Shane Baz (x2), Drew Rasmussen Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley Zack Littell
TEX COL (148) HOU (97) Tyler Mahle (x2), Jack Leiter (vCOL), Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi Leiter (vHOU) Patrick Corbin
TOR TBR (151) DET (53) Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman José Berríos (vTBR) Bowden Francis, Berríos (vDET) José Ureña
WSN @ATL (90) @BAL (128) MacKenzie Gore Jake Irvin (x2), Michael Soroka (x2), Mitchell Parker, Trevor Williams





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.

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