Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: May 8–11

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

May 8–11
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
SEA 0.299 99 TEX 0.346
CLE 0.286 101 DET 0.285
PIT 0.335 95 COL 0.312
BAL 0.337 95 TBR 0.375
NYY 0.298 102 OAK 0.297
CHC 0.340 98 STL 0.324
KCR 0.292 93 CHW 0.296
MIL 0.315 103 LAD 0.344
LAA 0.334 107 HOU 0.302
ARI 0.326 94 MIA 0.303
SFG 0.329 90 WSN 0.297
CIN 0.304 116 NYM 0.316
PHI 0.329 106 TOR 0.324
ATL 0.353 98 BOS 0.351
MIN 0.312 96 SDP 0.318

Teams with favorable schedules next week include the Diamondbacks, Giants, Guardians, Nationals, Pirates, Rangers, Royals, Tigers, and White Sox

Teams with tougher schedules include the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Mariners, Mets, Orioles, Phillies, Red Sox, and Reds.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starters
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Vince Velasquez 37.18% COL 0.312 3.79 14.6% 0.84
Jhony Brito 33.97% OAK 0.297 4.46 6.1% 0.79
Dane Dunning 16.03% SEA 0.299 3.31 7.6% 0.00
Michael Lorenzen 4.81% CLE 0.286 4.83 9.9% 1.29
Rich Hill 2.56% COL 0.312 5.34 12.9% 1.95
Peyton Battenfield 1.28% DET 0.285 5.89 3.9% 1.56

I covered both Vince Velasquez and Rich Hill in my last column on Tuesday as two guys who have been particularly good recently. The former made a start against the Rays yesterday and left after three innings with elbow discomfort. He said he was optimistic about the injury after the game but his status is clearly up in the air. If he’s healthy, he’s scheduled to take the mound against the Rockies at home on Tuesday. Monitor his status closely.

In that A’s-Yankees series there could be a couple of starters you could call on to take advantage of some weak offenses. Jhony Brito is scheduled to start Wednesday and he looked a lot better in his last start against the potent Rangers lineup; he threw five innings of two-run ball with five strikeouts against just one walk. There are a bunch of A’s starters who you probably shouldn’t trust, even against the weakened Yankees lineup. Plus there’s the complication of Aaron Judge potentially being activated from the Injured List early in the week. If you had to pick an Oakland starter, I’d go with JP Sears; he’s coming off six innings of shutout work against the Mariners.

The Guardians-Tigers series features two of the worst offenses in the league going head-to-head. Michael Lorenzen and Peyton Battenfield draw starts in the series and both are worth considering simply due to the lack of offensive quality they’ll be facing. The former is a pretty known quantity at this point in his career, but the Cleveland rookie features some promise even if the early results haven’t been pretty. Battenfield features a cutter that possesses a 38.2% whiff rate, a weapon that makes him a far more interesting flier than a veteran innings eater.

Hot Starters:

Strong Starters, Last Two Weeks
Pitcher IP FIP K-BB% HR/9 P/IP
Ryan Feltner 17 2.30 16.4% 0.00 6.32
Wade Miley 17 3.83 5.9% 0.53 4.37

I’d understand if you had completely missed out on the stretch of starts Ryan Feltner has put together recently. Over his last three turns in the rotation, he’s allowed just three runs while striking out 15 in 17 innings. Just one of those starts came at home in Coors Field and that’s really the sticking point with any Rockies starter. It’s a huge gamble to start them at home so you’re only really rostering them for half their appearances. At his peak, Germán Márquez was worth rostering; Feltner is definitely not at that point yet, but his stretch of solid starts makes him worth monitoring.

After tossing a seven-inning gem back on April 16 against the Padres, Wade Miley has followed it up with three solid starts including surviving Coors Field yesterday. The strikeouts aren’t there but he’s managing hard contact against him and isn’t walking anyone. He’s lined up to start against the Dodgers at home in his next turn through the rotation. If he can pass that test, he could be worth looking into to give your Ottoneu team some bulk innings.

Recap: May 1–4

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Domingo Germán 8.1 65.5 7.86
Kyle Gibson 6.2 11.0 1.66
Tyler Wells 6 -4.3 -0.72
Drew Smyly 7 27.9 3.99
JP Sears 6 42.0 7.00
Total 34 142.1 4.18
Season Total 335.2 1112.9 3.32

A pretty good week with two clear wins, another solid start, and just one clear loss. Domingo Germán looked dominant against the Guardians and his ownership rate has skyrocketed over the 50% threshold we’re working with. Tyler Wells actually looked pretty decent against the Royals, but he was undone by allowing three home runs, the only hits he allowed in his start.





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot.

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