Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: May 15–18

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

May 15–18
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
BOS 0.344 100 SEA 0.299
BAL 0.329 95 LAA 0.329
DET 0.291 93 PIT 0.326
MIA 0.297 93 WSN 0.304
TOR 0.327 105 NYY 0.309
NYM 0.315 97 TBR 0.368
STL 0.326 94 MIL 0.310
TEX 0.339 101 ATL 0.349
HOU 0.298 102 CHC 0.339
CHW 0.301 108 CLE 0.276
COL 0.313 111 CIN 0.307
OAK 0.306 91 ARI 0.332
SDP 0.314 98 KCR 0.304
SFG 0.327 90 PHI 0.326
LAD 0.337 107 MIN 0.302

Teams with favorable schedules next week include the Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Giants, Marlins, Nationals, Padres, Phillies, Pirates, and Tigers.

Teams with tougher schedules include the Astros, Braves, Mariners, Mets, Rangers, Reds, Rockies, Twins, and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starters
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Ryne Nelson 44.87% OAK 0.306 4.73 7.6% 1.25
Nick Pivetta 31.09% SEA 0.299 5.79 13.3% 2.08
Michael Lorenzen 5.13% PIT 0.326 4.20 10.3% 0.96
Rich Hill 3.53% DET 0.291 5.03 12.7% 1.74

There are a pair of starters in that short two-game Pirates-Tigers series that make for nice targets. Rich Hill has put together a solid stretch of starts, particularly against some weaker opponents. Michael Lorenzen is a bit more of a risk against a Pittsburgh offense that’s been pretty potent to start the season. However, the Pirates have scuffled a bit over the last two weeks (.305 wOBA) and Comerica Park provides a friendly venue.

Nick Pivetta could also be a risky start, though the Mariners offense has been really struggling recently. He can’t stop allowing home runs, allowing at least one in every start save one (against the Rays of all teams). With a HR/9 over two, he’s been killing his Ottoneu value despite a passable strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Hot Starters:

Strong Starters, Last Two Weeks
Pitcher IP FIP K-BB% HR/9 P/IP
Dane Dunning 14.1 2.68 12.7% 0.00 6.03
Dean Kremer 17 2.84 9.6% 0.00 4.66

Dane Dunning has been filling in for the injured Jacob deGrom and has put together two solid starts against the Angels — five scoreless with just two hits allowed — and the Mariners — six innings of two-run ball. His stuff isn’t overpowering, but if he’s hitting his spots with his command, he can be effective. So far, that seems to be what’s driving his success. His next start will be against the Braves which will be a pretty significant challenge. Monitor that start and see how he looks afterward.

Dean Kremer has turned in a pair of impressive starts against some very difficult opposition, holding the Braves to just a single run last week and keeping the Rays off the board in his start this week. Those are the two best offenses in the league and his ability to handle them feels like a pretty significant step forward for him.

Recap: May 8–11

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Vince Velasquez N/A
Jhony Brito 4.1 -8.5 -1.97
Dane Dunning 6 35.8 5.97
Michael Lorenzen 7 44.8 6.40
Rich Hill 3.2 18.7 5.11
Peyton Battenfield 6 34.2 5.70
Total 27 125.0 4.63
Season Total 391.2 1200.7 3.07

Now that’s more like it. Even with the stinker of a start from Jhony Brito, Dunning, Lorenzen, Hill, and Battenfield carried a huge amount of points this week. The only nit to pick from that quartet of wins was the lack of bulk from Hill despite the great points per IP.





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.

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