Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: April 28–30

Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.

Upcoming Schedule:

April 28–30
Home wOBA HR Park Factor Away wOBA
TOR 0.326 105 SEA 0.303
MIN 0.306 96 KCR 0.272
DET 0.268 93 BAL 0.331
MIA 0.299 93 CHC 0.350
WSN 0.294 104 PIT 0.334
BOS 0.333 100 CLE 0.292
NYM 0.326 97 ATL 0.345
CHW 0.299 108 TBR 0.385
TEX 0.343 101 NYY 0.308
HOU 0.319 102 PHI 0.344
MIL 0.324 103 LAA 0.326
COL 0.301 111 ARI 0.318
OAK 0.302 91 CIN 0.298
LAD 0.341 107 STL 0.338
SDP 0.301 98 SFG 0.321
Giants-Padres play in Mexico City

I’ve started pulling current season data for team offenses to assess matchups rather than continue utilizing the rest-of-season projections. That means there are a bunch of teams who were projected to be good who are currently underperforming and vice versa.

It’s a pretty rough slate of matchups this weekend. It doesn’t help that the Giants and Padres are playing in Mexico City which is at a higher altitude than Denver. The ball should be flying in that short two-game series.

Teams with easier schedules include the A’s, Cubs, Orioles, Twins, Red Sox, Reds, and Royals.

Teams with tougher schedules include the aforementioned Giants and Padres and also the Angels, Astros, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Guardians, Mariners, Mets, Nationals, Rockies, White Sox. and Yankees.

Highlighted matchups:

Recommended Starting Pitchers
Pitcher Roster% Opponent Opponent wOBA FIP K-BB% HR/9
Kyle Muller 49.68% CIN 0.298 5.31 3.4% 1.14
Nick Pivetta 31.73% CLE 0.292 5.16 15.9% 1.83
Dean Kremer 9.30% DET 0.268 6.57 11.3% 2.55
Vince Velasquez 0.96% WSN 0.294 4.12 13.3% 1.03
Caleb Kilian? 0.32% MIA 0.299 4.17 11.1%
Kilian’s stats from FanGraphs Depth Charts projections

Despite all those poor matchups, there are a handful of starter’s I’m comfortable recommending. All three of the A’s starters scheduled to take the mound during their home series against the Reds fall below our 50% owned threshold. I’m recommending Kyle Muller again, but if you want to roll the dice with Ken Waldichuk or possibly even Drew Rucinski 루친스키, you could drip them into your lineups.

Nick Pivetta bounced back after a rough start against the Angels a few weeks ago. Last weekend, he held the Brewers to three runs in 5.2 innings, striking out seven and walking just one. He draws the Guardians at home this weekend and that should be a pretty easy matchup for him since Cleveland’s offense hasn’t really started clicking yet.

Dean Kremer followed up his gem of a start against the Nationals with a decent start against the Red Sox yesterday. He allowed four runs in 5.2 innings, striking out five. He did allow a pair of home runs which has been a huge issue for him. The Tigers simply aren’t hitting for power right now and the Orioles will be playing in cavernous Comerica Park. This is a matchup that should go the way his one against the Nationals did.

After two rough starts to open the season, Vince Velasquez has actually been pitching pretty well for the red-hot Pirates. He shut out the Cardinals and Reds and escaped Coors Field with just three runs allowed. Across his last three starts, he’s earned 6.7 points per inning pitched. He’s scheduled to start against the Nationals on Saturday.

The final recommendation is a little up in the air. The Cubs will need to call up a starter to take Jameson Taillon’s spot in the rotation this weekend but it’s a little unclear who it’ll be. Caleb Kilian or Adrian Sampson 샘슨 make the most sense with the former being listed on the Roster Resource Probables Grid. Whoever it ends up being, they’ll have a nice matchup against the Marlins in Miami.

Recap: April 21–23

Drip Retrospective
Player IP Pts Pts/IP
Tyler Wells 7 51.0 7.29
Kyle Gibson 6.1 42.4 6.69
Zach Plesac 5 15.0 3.00
Hunter Gaddis N/A
Bailey Falter N/A
Total 18.1 108.4 5.91
Season Total 244.1 848.7 3.47

Two clear wins from the two Orioles starters make this a pretty good week. Hunter Gaddis ended up relegated to long relief and then to the minors and Bailey Falter’s start was pushed back to today.





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.

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LightenUpFGMember since 2018
1 year ago

Kyle Gibson is trying to lure us all in again.