Ottoneu Starting Pitching Drip: April 14–16
Welcome back to the SP Drip. My goal for this bi-weekly column is to comb through the upcoming schedule each week to find a few under-owned pitchers (less than 50% ownership across Ottoneu) who could be used to help you hit your games started cap in head-to-head leagues or to make sure you’re hitting your innings pitched cap in points leagues. Tuesday’s article will cover the weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) and Friday’s article will cover the upcoming week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday). That way, you’ll have time to start your auctions in time to actually drip these pitchers into your lineup.
Upcoming Schedule:
Home | wOBA | HR Park Factor | Away | wOBA |
---|---|---|---|---|
SEA | 0.318 | 99 | COL | 0.310 |
DET | 0.307 | 93 | SFG | 0.321 |
CIN | 0.317 | 116 | PHI | 0.324 |
MIA | 0.317 | 93 | ARI | 0.321 |
WSN | 0.311 | 104 | CLE | 0.322 |
NYY | 0.327 | 102 | MIN | 0.317 |
TOR | 0.335 | 105 | TBR | 0.320 |
BOS | 0.331 | 100 | LAA | 0.334 |
CHW | 0.321 | 108 | BAL | 0.321 |
HOU | 0.335 | 102 | TEX | 0.320 |
KCR | 0.317 | 93 | ATL | 0.338 |
STL | 0.329 | 94 | PIT | 0.317 |
OAK | 0.299 | 91 | NYM | 0.327 |
SDP | 0.334 | 98 | MIL | 0.322 |
LAD | 0.333 | 107 | CHC | 0.318 |
A bunch of teams have easier schedules this weekend including the Braves, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Giants, Mariners, Marlins, Mets, and Tigers.
Difficult schedules include the Angles, Brewers, Cubs, Nationals, Orioles, Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Twins, and White Sox.
Highlighted matchups:
Pitcher | Roster% | Opponent | Opponent wOBA | FIP | K-BB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Dodd | 48.72% | KCR | 0.317 | 4.56 | 11.0% |
Seth Lugo | 47.12% | MIL | 0.322 | 3.89 | 15.6% |
Nick Martinez | 45.51% | MIL | 0.322 | 4.08 | 12.6% |
Matthew Boyd | 44.87% | SFG | 0.321 | 4.14 | 15.1% |
Anthony DeSclafani | 40.71% | DET | 0.307 | 3.95 | 14.1% |
Jhony Brito | 34.30% | MIN | 0.317 | 4.29 | 11.1% |
Bryce Elder | 23.40% | KCR | 0.317 | 4.08 | 11.8% |
Zach Plesac | 13.46% | WSN | 0.311 | 4.57 | 11.5% |
Michael Grove | 8.65% | CHC | 0.318 | 4.53 | 12.8% |
Jake Woodford | 0.64% | PIT | 0.317 | 4.63 | 7.7% |
Despite all the teams with bad matchups, there’s a full slate of recommendations this weekend. The two young starters from the Braves, Dylan Dodd and Bryce Elder, are scheduled to make starts in Kansas City against the Royals. The former had a rough outing against the Padres in his last start, allowing seven runs in 4.1 innings. The Royals should prove to be a much easier opponent. Elder just held the Reds scoreless over 6.1 innings in his start on Monday and hasn’t allowed a run in either of his starts this year.
The two Padres pitchers are creeping up in ownership since the start of the season and both are light recommendations against the Brewers. It’s not an obvious matchup to exploit since Milwaukee has actually been hitting pretty well to start the season, but it’s at home and both Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo have proven they can be counted on this season. The latter has been particularly impressive in his return to the rotation with another strong start coming against the Braves on Sunday.
Anthony DeSclafani turned in another solid start in his last turn through the rotation and he gets a really easy matchup against the Tigers in their huge ballpark. On the other side of that matchup, Matthew Boyd could be a bit more of a risky pick. He handled the Astros and Red Sox okay, allowing two runs in each of those starts, but he hasn’t been able to pitch out of the fifth inning yet. He’s allowed as many walks as he has strikeouts so the efficiency is still lacking.
Jhony Brito is lined up to make his third start of his career after capably handling the Orioles last weekend. He gets a tougher opponent in the Twins so this will be a pretty tough test for him. I’m recommending him anyway. Michael Grove did not fare well in his second start after impressing in his season debut; he allowed nine runs to the Diamondbacks on Sunday. He’ll get the Cubs at home in his next start and that’s a bit of a risk given the high home run park factor of Dodger Stadium. I’d understand if you wanted to wait and see how he performs this weekend before picking him up.
Recap: April 7–9
Pitcher | IP | PTS | P/IP |
---|---|---|---|
Mike Clevinger | 5.1 | 14.7 | 2.75 |
Nick Pivetta | N/A | ||
Anthony DeSclafani | 6.1 | 53.1 | 8.38 |
Bailey Falter | 5 | 18.3 | 3.66 |
Brad Keller | 5.2 | 31.1 | 5.49 |
Total | 22.1 | 117.2 | 5.25 |
Season Total | 113.1 | 382.7 | 3.38 |
A much better weekend after those terrible results during the first week in April. I count two clear wins and no losses. The surprise was Brad Keller’s performance against the Giants. The strikeouts weren’t there, but he held San Francisco to just three hits in 5.2 innings of work. That’ll play. Nick Pivetta’s start got pushed back to Monday, but he performed well against the Rays, shutting them out over five innings with six strikeouts and just two walks.
Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.
I was looking at Ryne at Miami. He is below these other options for you?
I like both Ryne Nelson and Drey Jamison in Miami but both have ownership rates above 50% which is why they’re not listed above.