Ottoneu Hot Right Now: May 10th, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Ian Hamilton – 53 current auctions

Having a reliever atop this list does not make for the most exciting week. But Hamilton is legitimately interesting, and not only because he picked up a save over the weekend. The save is likely not a sign that he has taken over the ninth for the Yankees, but it does suggest he has earned high-leverage chances which means holds – and some saves – could be coming in. Hamilton has toiled in the minors since 2016 and had just 14.2 very poor innings in MLB before this year, but he has been great in 2023. He is striking out a third of hitters and has yet to give up a homer, thanks in part to a 60.5% ground ball rate. He is at 8 P/IP and has thrown 20 innings, tied for tenth most among RP this year. All of this makes him an interesting target where you need relief help. The big cause for concern is that he has no track record of this kind of success, even in the minors. He is flirting with a K-rate better than he has ever posted at any level and his GB-rate is the best he has posted at any level. May his unique “slambio” is a difference-maker and explains all of this success. Maybe he just ran hot for a month. I’m happy to buy-in and see how it goes. As with all relievers, I want to pick him up cheap and be ready to move on when it is time.

Mark Leiter Jr. – 51 current auctions

Another RP! How thrilling! Leiter has shifted away from his four-seamer and is using his sinker and cutter more, while also increasing his splitter usage. He has also significantly increased his strikeout rate and his swinging-strike rate. His barrel-rate has also doubled, but given the small sample (4 total barrels), decreasing exit velocity and steady hard-hit rate, I have a hard time getting too worked up about that. Like Hamilton, he does not appear to be The Closer in Chicago, but he did get a save, he has piled up holds, and he is very much in the late-inning discussion. As the weather warms up and Wrigley becomes more hitter-friendly, I worry that his HR/FB rate could increase and with a relatively low ground ball rate, that could really bring down his value. He’s also piling up holds and saves at a very high rate (8 total in 16 appearances – last year only about five non-closers had saves or holds in half their appearances or more), which means his 8.67 P/IP is due to regress even if his performance stays the same. Like Hamilton, I am interested enough to try to add him cheap, but if the ball starts flying out of the park, move on.

Maikel Garcia – 37 current auctions

I don’t really get this one. Garcia played pretty poorly in Triple-A. He projects to be well-below-average. He has very little power. He does have decent speed, so maybe this is driven by 5×5 leagues? He does have 3B/SS eligibility so maybe this is driven by OPL? There are also reports that his minor league exit velocities have increased, suggesting a power spike could be coming, but it is not here yet. I could definitely see a case for adding him in 5×5, as he has stolen 35 and 39 bases the last two seasons. But beyond that? I am out.

J.P. France –  37 current auctions

Everyone needs pitching and France made one decent start, so he became a must-add. But that start feels somewhat misleading. He issued just one walk, but he also hit a batter and has a long track record of very high walk rates in the minors. He gave up just one extra-base hit (a double) but had a ball hit 115.5 mph and another 106.4, both for outs. His xwOBA allowed was .291, which is not bad at all, but is a lot worse than the .224 wOBA he actually allowed. I get the interest, but there was no reason to think he would pitch that well in his debut and I don’t think he gave me much reason to believe he’ll pitch that well again.

Ben Brown – 36 current auctions

Brown moved into the top-100 prospects list here at FanGraphs and a top-100 SP prospect who is tearing up Triple-A with a possible near-term promotion is going to be a hot commodity. 2022 was really the first time Brown had a full, healthy season and even that was only 104 IP, so durability has to be a question. He’s also struggled with command at times in the past. All of that likely contributes to scouts having concerns about reliever risk, but since coming to the Cubs organization last year, he has looked every bit the part of a future MLB starter. I typically like prospects who are ready to debut and have high-upside, and I think Brown has both. Don’t let the lack of prospect hype in the past fool you – he wouldn’t be the first SP to turn a corner and find himself succeeding in the big leagues before the prospect hype has a chance to catch up.

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Roster Adds

Bryce Miller, Leagues with Add (7 Days) – 72.76%

Three out of four leagues saw a team add Miller in the last seven days, which is just wild. Miller has always had electric stuff, allowing him to pile up strikeouts in the minors. But walks have been an issue at times. I suspect that has a lot to do with the Mariners calling him up despite pretty poor results in Double-A this year. While the overall numbers weren’t great, he massively cut down on the walks, which may well have been his final frontier before getting a look in Seattle. And since getting the call, he has been brilliant. At this point it is probably too late to tell you to go bid on him, but if you still can, you should. He should be 100% rostered and he is worth a sizable investment. If you missed out, I think he is a solid buy-high candidate, as well.

My one word of caution is that I don’t think it will be all smooth sailing. Expect him to lose that control at some point and have to get it back. Expect the league to adjust to him, and him to have to adjust back. I think he works through that though. The future is bright.

Nick Senzel, Leagues with Add (7 Days) – 57.37%

Senzel’s results are better than they have ever been, but a lot of the underlying numbers don’t stand out. His plate discipline is in line with his career. His hard-hit rate is down and his barrel-rate is nothing special. He is hitting more fly balls than he has in the past, which will at least lead to more HR. And, most importantly, he is staying healthy. Right now, everything he is doing looks sustainable and I see no reason he can’t continue to be a .320-.330 wOBA type bat, as long as he stays in the lineup. That, of course, is a pretty significant caveat with Senzel, but I would be happy to add him and ride the ride as long as it goes.

Louie Varland, Leagues with Add (7 Days) – 53.85%

Varland was covered in last week’s Hot Right Now. Since then, he has had a bit of a rough start against the White Sox and a solid start against the Padres. I am pretty skeptical given the hard contact he has allowed. There has been some good (mostly strikeouts) but unless he is able to induce less hard contact or more ground balls, he’ll continue to give up a lot of HR, as well.

LaMonte Wade Jr. (35.90%) and Mark Leiter Jr. (30.45%) are the next two on our list, but we will skip over them since Wade was covered in last week’s Hot Right Now and Leiter was covered above.

JJ Bleday, Leagues with Add (7 Days) – 28.21%

Bleday is still under 53% rostered and is up for auction in 35 leagues right now, so there is still time to add him. And I think you probably should. Bleday has some real prospect pedigree and this year he has made nice strides in his strikeout rate and his power; two things he struggled with in his last look at the bigs. The .412 BABIP he is carrying right now is certainly inflating his line, but he is also hitting the ball hard more often than he did last time up. I have a number of leagues where I could use an OF bat, and this is one I will be trying to add.

Ezequiel Duran, Leagues with Add (7 Days) – 26.93%

Like Bleday, Duran is still available in more than 40% of leagues and is up for auction in 35 leagues right now, so you still have time to buy in. Unlike Bleday, I am not that interested. Duran is striking out 25% of the time, which is not terrible, but he is also walking just 1% of the time, and that is terrible. If he were never striking out and never walking, maybe he could make that work. But this combination is ugly. Compared to last year, when he was really bad, he is striking out more, walking less, and chasing more pitches. He is also making less contact on pitches in the zone and more contact on pitches outside the zone. There are just a lot of red flags and that is before we talk about Corey Seager starting a rehab assignment and leaving Duran without a job. If you want to pick him up and use him until he cools off or loses his job, I totally get that. But it won’t be me.

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Hot Performers

Rostered in just 30% of leagues, Nick Pratto is the definition of post-hype, having been passed by his teammate, Vinnie Pasquantino, and then doing nothing to his way back into our hearts. But at 6.28 P/G and a .405 wOBA, maybe things are starting to change! Or maybe not. He is still striking out nearly a third of the time. His EV is not good and his barrel rate is downright bad, which makes his 33.3% HR/FB rate hard to understand. He has a thoroughly unsustainable 42.3% line drive rate, which is inflating his BABIP (.538). All of this is going to come crashing down in a big way if he doesn’t start striking out less or hitting the ball harder or, realistically, both. His xwOBA is just .326 and while that is not bad remember that a super high line drive rate will inflate xwOBA – all those liners really happened and they all have high xwOBAs, but they will not continue to happen (at least not at that rate). Don’t get sucked in.

I talked about Wade Miley in this space three weeks ago and since then he has just kept on keeping on, but he is still under 50% rostered. So just reminding you, he is probably out there and probably shouldn’t be.

Meanwhile, Cal Quantrill was nowhere near this space to start the year, but since the calendar turned to May, he has been over 5 P/IP, including a 45.2 point, 7 IP schooling of the Minnesota Twins. Quantrill is available in more than a third of leagues, but I am not rushing out to add him. As a SP, he has been pretty consistently around 4 P/IP and I think he will stay there. Even in May, he has just 3.77 K/9 and a 4.46 FIP. Quantrill has demonstrated he can fairly consistently post better results than his FIP would suggest, which makes him a decent target in 4×4 and 5×5. But in points formats, beating your FIP doesn’t help that much. And even in roto, do you really want a guy adding almost nothing in strikeouts, just to get decent ERA over a large number of innings? I am not that tempted.