Ottoneu Hot Right Now: August 2nd, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Luis Medina – 44 current auctions

The league average BB/9 among starters in 2023 is 3.02 and creeps up to 3.53 among rookie starters. Medina is a 24-year-old rookie starter with a 4.28 BB/9. In the same comparison, HR/9 in 2023 sits at 1.30 for starters and 1.54 for rookies and Medina is at 1.43. While that may be below the average for rookies, walking a lot of hitters and giving up a lot of home runs is never a good recipe for a starter, but Medina wasn’t necessarily expected to be a starter. Here’s the “Graduation Prospect TLDR” from his player page:

Prospect Medina projected as a high-leverage reliever, but he debuted as a starter with a needy A’s club.

He was listed as the 12th best prospect by Tess Taruskin back in June and Taruskin wrote:

Part of the Frankie Montas trade, Medina’s long minor league career has been characterized by an ongoing inability to assign either a starter or reliever role to him…His command still dogs his output, with an above-average walk rate illustrating his inconsistency at finding the zone. On a good team, Medina would probably have already been put in the bullpen, and his stuff would likely enable him to perform well in that role, but the rebuilding A’s have no incentive to make such a move proactively.

So, throwing him out there and treating him like a starter seems to be the approach the A’s are taking. He’s made 11 starts and appeared in relief four times. When he has come in relief it has been in a long-relief role and in each of his relief appearances he has thrown at least four innings and struck out at least four. He’s got real strikeout ability with a 9.04 K/9 in the big leagues and it never dipped below 10 in his time in the minor leagues since 2018. ZIPS 2024 figures him to be a 4.25 ERA pitcher in 2024 while maintaining a high walk rate.

Luis Rengifo –  27 current auctions

Rengifo has been on a roll lately, going 14 for his last 41 (.341 AVG) with three home runs and a .732 slugging percentage. He has consistently been in the leadoff spot for the Angels and now has C.J. Cron batting behind him. As Jeff Zimmerman pointed out in his recent Waiver Wire Report (Week 19), Rengifo has a tendency to be more productive in the second half of the season:

Luis Urías –  26 current auctions

Yes, the 26-year-old middle infielder was traded to the Boston Red Sox and could quickly move up to the big league squad, but he is still down in AAA. You have to figure that won’t last long as the current second baseman (according to RosterResource) is Justin Tuner and at shortstop sits Yu Chang. But, just a few weeks ago Urías found himself in an Ottoneu Cold Right Now report and he hasn’t necessarily set the world on fire down in AAA in July. Between July 3rd and the 30th, he had 116 at-bats with a .250/.392/.447 slash line. Most rest-of-season projection systems have him hitting sub .240 with around two home runs and zero stolen bases.

Nick Pivetta –  23 current auctions

Pivetta has shown some impressive strikeout totals in his last four starts. On July 17th, he struck out 13 batters and on the 31st, he struck out 10. However, in the two starts between he threw a combined six strikeouts. Regardless, those four starts (19.1 IP) total out to a 13.50 K/9. My guess is that most of this success has come as a result of an increased swinging strike rate, mostly on the four-seam fastball:

His four-seamer has a 10.1 pVal (Pitch Info) on the year which is a career high. While his secondaries aren’t close in pVal measure to his four-seamer, the fastball is what is limiting contact, garnering swings and misses, and setting up his curveball and sweeper. His fastball usage is above 50% and I’m a little worried about how often he leaves it in the middle of the zone. I do like the fact that he is elevating it with success though:

Luisangel Acuña – 19 current auctions

Fantasy managers are falling into a headline/recency bias situation here as Acuña was traded to the Mets in the Max Scherzer deal earlier in the week. However, when Chad Young recommends a player for pickup in Ottoneu, we should all listen. Acuña is currently playing at the AA level and has a good slash line (.315/.377/.453) with seven home runs in 406 at-bats. I think it will take some time for him to work his way up the major leagues and this is a good pickup if you are in the beginning stages of a rebuild.

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Roster Adds

Gregory Santos – Add% Change (7 Days) – 32.37%

Working his way into the closer role in Chicago, Santos has been excellent all season. His BB/9 is a tiny 1.93 as is his HR/9 (0.18). That combination is great, but what’s even more impressive is the stuff that has gotten him there. His slider Stuff+ is the second-best among qualified relievers at 163 behind Ryan Pressly’s 176. Pressly has three other pitches (FA, CU, CH)  with a Stuff+ above 100. Santos has none. That means practically all of his success has come from a wicked slider that he throws 50.4% of the time (Statcast). His sinker is basically the only other pitch he throws as he left the four-seamer behind in 2022 and it hasn’t performed all that well. But, it comes in around 99 MPH and seems to pair nicely with the slider. It’s very possible that opponents have simply gotten lucky on the sinker as Santo’s season BABIP is .342.

Marco Luciano – Add% Change (7 Days) – 25.32%

Getting the call up to the major leagues after what seemed like a long time coming has spiked Luciano’s add rate in Ottoneu leagues. He was brought up for four games and then sent back down. He went three for 11, recording three hits, one of which was a double. His K% remains too high (29.6% in AAA this season) and his 2023 AAA slash line (.292/.370/.625) has been somewhat inflated by a high BABIP (.357). But, he is still only 21 years old and ranks fourth in the Giants’ prospect pool. Here’s a snippet from Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin’s June write-up on Luciano:

He’s whiffing a lot against fastballs around his hands and against sliders away from him, and not just ones that finish off the plate. It’s very likely that Luciano ends up with a well below-average hit tool, but if he stay at shortstop and is hitting for power when he does make contact, he should still be a fine everyday player whose slash line looks like Chris Taylor‘s.

Matt Wallner – Add% Change (7 Days) – 18.91%

The 25-year-old prospect outfielder found himself ranked #8 in Eric Longenhagen’s analysis of the Twins system back in June. This season, Wallner has put up some prospect-looking percentages, specifically a 9.1% BB% and a 27.3% K%. His slash line looks ok (.262/.377/.538) but man does he hit the ball hard. His Statcast MaxEV (113.8 MPH) ranks in the 89th percentile, but read a little into Longenhagen’s analysis and you should tamper your expectations:

Why isn’t this guy just a top 100 prospect? Well, Wallner is a liability on defense and his hit tool is pretty flimsy. While he has thunderous, impact power, there are fair questions about whether or not he’ll get to it against big league stuff because of how often he swings and misses.

Everson Pereira – Add% Change (7 Days) – 15.7%

Pereira is the fourth-best prospect in the Yankees system according to the March 2023 ranking and though he is only 22 years old, his 2023 AAA slash line is very impressive (.329/.368/.573) in 87 plate appearances. His BB% (3.4%) is too small and his K% (28.7%) is too big, but the Yankees don’t necessarily have big-league outfielders blocking lineup spots for years to come. Like Wallner (above), Pereira has a lot of raw power that needs to pair with pitch recognition and plate discipline for a chance of big-league success. Just look at what was written in his 2023 prospect report by Eric Longenhagen:

He generated an average exit velo of just over 90 mph in 2022 and had a hard-hit rate of just under 45%, both excellent for any hitter let alone a college-aged one, but Pereira’s swing isn’t actualized for launch and his swing-and-miss rates are pretty rough.

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Hot Performers

Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers.

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 (9.92) has been on a roll in the leadoff spot in San Diego and luckily avoided injury after a shoulder jam over the weekend. This really feels more like a breakout and not a hot streak to me. Kim has begun walking more, striking out less, hitting the ball harder, swinging out of the zone less, and generally just being more patient at the plate:

Lars Nootbaar (10.08 P/G) has also been taking off bringing his second-half batting average up to .339, his second-half OBP up to .452, and his second-half slugging percentage up to .627.

J.P. France (5.8 P/IP) has gone seven innings in his last three starts and has struck out a combined 14 batters while allowing no home runs. That is a really good recipe for Ottoneu points leagues. His overall HR/9 on the season is 0.98 and he’s averaged 6.1 innings per start this season. Zach Eflin (7.1 P/IP) has also limited walks and home runs in his last three starts with only two walks and no home runs allowed, but he did give up five earned runs in one of those outings. That is also a good recipe for Ottoneu points leagues and on the season as a whole, his 3.46 ERA (3.12 xERA) is really good.