Ottoneu Hot Right Now: April 28, 2025

The 2025 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Will Vest – 70 current auctions

Does anyone else see his name and want to sing “See my Vest?” No? Just me? Hmmm.

Vest has spent the last couple of years straddling the line between “useful” and “cuttable” in Ottoneu, with 7.11 P/IP in 2023 and 6.45 in 2024. The former is pretty decent, certainly worth rostering; the latter less so. This year, however, he has jumped to 8.64 P/IP, which is a lot better than “pretty decent” and moves from “worth rostering” to “must roster.” The jump has been driven by three things, so far as I can tell. The first two are good news:

1. Vest has boosted his K-rate from 28.1% in 2023 and 21.8% last year to 32.6% this year. That has added more than 2 K/9 to his total from last year, adding about 0.44 P/IP. Since K are worth 2 points, an increase of 1 in K/9 is worth about 0.22 P/IP. He’s done this without increasing his walks meaningfully.
2. Vest has boosted his (Save+Hold)/Appearance (a stat I just made up) from .269 in 2023 and .227 in 2024 to .333 this year. Even if that increase were all holds, an extra 0.1 hold per inning is worth another 0.4 P/IP. But Vest has also moved up the bullpen ladder and gone from mostly holds (25 vs. 4 saves the last two years combined) to mostly saves (3 saves vs. 1 hold this year). That has added roughly 0.17 P/IP to his total, as well, compared to last year.

Then there is a third “bump” – a .083 BABIP reducing his hits against – that explains the rest of the gap. That BABIP will correct. Vest has given up 3 hits, and probably should have given up 9, which would take 15.6 points, or 1.3 P/IP, off his total performance. But those PA that don’t end in outs become six more chances to get a K which, at his current K-rate, is two more K. The net impact is that a BABIP-corrected Vest, assuming those hits don’t cost him any holds or saves, would be closer to 7.64 P/IP.

That’s still an improvement over last year and still enough to make him quite valuable. But only if those first two changes stick. The second change might even offer some additional upside. He seems to have stepped into at least a share of the closer role (three saves in his last four appearances), so you could certainly make a case that his (Save+Hold)/Appearance could be closer to 50% or more the rest of the way, which would come close to counteracting that BABIP correction.

That role might depend on keeping up the strike outs, though. But that too, I see reason for optimism. Vest has increased velocity on his four-seamer, sinker, and slider, including jumps of 1.4 and 2.4 mph on the latter two. He is keeping the four-seamer lower in the zone and keeping the slider more consistently on the edge. Last year, the slider sat middle-middle a bit too often and had a .359 xwOBA against – that is down to .222 this year.

It’s too early to say that those are real changes and not just small sample noise, but it isn’t too early to take a shot on Vest. He’s unlikely to hurt you and if the increased K and improved role are real, he could help a lot. In 5×5 he is a must-add – 3 saves in four appearances will do that – and in points leagues, I think he is pretty close to must-add, as well.

Jordan Beck – 63 current auctions

Sometimes it pays to stop paying attention. I was pretty high on Beck before the season and had him on a couple of teams. I cut him off one in late April, but the other I got sidetracked by Spring Break travel with the family. Beck had moved to “Cut” on my Roster Organizer when he was sent down, but I never got around to making that move. Then, due to injuries and short slates and platoons, he was in my lineup for all five of his HR last week.

Beck has a .567 wOBA since returning from his short stay in Triple-A, so of course he is getting picked up. He also has a 38.7% K-rate and a .400 BABIP over that stretch. The strikeouts were a concern last year and that has not changed, but Beck has improved all of the following:

• Avg EV
• Hard-hit rate
• Barrel rate
• Average bat speed
• Fast swing rate
• Chase rate
• Walk rate

Those are all great things to improve and even with a slight increase in swinging strike rate, it’s hard not to like what you see. I think Beck is a smart add for teams that need OF depth. I don’t have huge regrets about my one cut – I think the strikeouts will be an ongoing issue that will limit his ceiling – but if he keeps getting off the swings he is getting off and making the quality contact he is making, he could still be a guy you use at home and for favorable road matchups, and that’s pretty valuable. Just track that quality of contact – if it starts to dip again, he could easily end up back where he was last year, and that’s a cut.

Ryan Gusto – 60 current auctions

Gusto’s track record isn’t super enticing, so it is no surprise he was 0% rostered before mid-April. His 2025 Triple-A performance was unimpressive and his 2024 Double-A performance was reliant on an unsustainable BABIP and HR/FB rate. He’s looked pretty good in MLB so far, posting a 21.1% K%-BB% on the strength of a measly 4.4% walk rate. With that kind of control, you can make things hard on opposing offenses.

Avoiding walks allows you to do something like give up 92.5 mph average EV, 49.2% HH-rate, and 9.5% barrel rate and still look good doing it. For context, in 2024 William Contreras was at 92.8, 49% and 10% across those three stats. Guys are getting swings off on Gusto and doing damage. His 6.7% HR/FB rate looks awfully low for a guy turning every hitter into William Contreras (who had a 17.3% HR/FB rate last year) and he has a relatively low GB rate and a relatively high launch angle allowed.

On top of that, the BB-rate came out of nowhere. Gusto has never thrown 25+ innings at any stop at any MiLB level with a BB% less than 2x his 4.4% rate in MLB so far.

So yes, he has looked good so far. But with only 22.2 IP so far this year, I am more inclined to bet on his track record than his early performance with Houston. Double his walks, double his HR, and how are you feeling? There’s nothing wrong with riding the hot streak. That could both net you some short-term gains and give you time to see if that control and HR suppression are legit. But there are other SP out there I am more interested in right now.

Roster Adds

Eric Wagaman – Add% Change (7 Days) – 43.4%

Wagaman has three HR this year, and two of them came in a four game stretch during which he scored more than 40% of his points on the season. If you had him in the lineup for that stretch and mostly on the bench otherwise, you are pretty happy with his performance. If you picked him up during or after that stretch, you are very unhappy. If you have had him in your lineup all year, his 4.51 P/G isn’t particularly exciting (though that number looks better if you only look at his performance as a starter).

Wagaman has made some improvements vs. last year. He is being more patient, chasing less and therefore drawing more walks while striking out less. His hard-hit and barrel rates are both up. He’s also playing regularly right now, which helps a lot. And he comes with 1B/3B/OF eligibility, which helps a lot, as well.

My initial read is that he is a slightly improved version of what we saw last year and that he’ll regress a bit from his current .327 wOBA. If you simply buy into his rest of season projections, he isn’t really worth rostering. If you think he can be something between those projections and his current production, he’s a nice end-of-bench type that you can use to fill open spots in the lineup as needed. That’s a useful piece! I just don’t think he is more than that.

Agustín Ramírez – Add% Change (7 Days) – 39.5%

I don’t have a ton to say here, because I don’t think we have learned a ton yet. Ramirez has had an absolutely scorching debut, battering Cincinnati and Seattle in 21 PA. He was always an intriguing offense-oriented catching prospect and given how hard it can be to find 162 games of strong catcher performance for fantasy, he is a no-brainer, obvious pickup. He is still available in about 1/6th of leagues and if you are in one of those leagues, you should probably add him. I just paid $4 to pick him up in a league where I already have Logan O’Hoppe and Austin Wells. I still like those two, but if Ramirez continues to hit I’ll suffer having three talented catchers.

Noelvi Marte – Add% Change (7 Days) – 35.5%

This is another case where I don’t have a ton to say, because the sample is too small to say much. Here’s what we know about Marte:

1. He was a top prospect as recently as 2023.
2. He had a really good debut in 2023, with a .357 wOBA in 123 PA.
3. He struggled in 2024 before being hit with an 80-game PED suspension.
4. He’s off to a great start in 2025, though it is only 47 PA, so far.
5. He’s still just 23 and won’t turn 24 until after the season.

Let’s pretend the second half of #3 said “before being hurt” or “before being sent down for more seasoning in Triple-A” or something like that. Or pretend he simply didn’t debut until this year. In those cases, we would have a 23-year old top prospect with a ton of hype around him for good reason. The caution around Marte that left him as a free agent in many leagues until recently stems from three things:

1. He struggled last year with a high K-rate.
2. His role was unclear.
3. Anyone with a PED suspension is going to be followed by some skepticism.

Well, the K-rate is much improved and his minor league track record suggests he should make plenty of contact. His role is maybe still not 100% clear, but he isn’t in danger of losing playing time if he keeps hitting. And unless you think he is using something illicit and is going to get suspended again, I don’t think there is reason to be concerned about the suspension.

So like Ramirez, we have an exciting prospect breaking out in just the way we expected. He’s still available in almost 20% of leagues. Check your league and go get him if you still can. Sure, he might still crash back to earth, but the upside is big.

Hot Performers

Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers. Players selected are usually rostered at lower levels.

Austin Wynns – 14.5 P/G

Wynns is quite literally 0% rostered in Ottoneu and has also had two days of 25+ points among his last three starts. So why is he still 0% rostered? He’s 34 years old, doesn’t have a full-time role, strikes out more than 30% of the time, and has no real track record of success, despite a similar small sample explosion last year. I highly doubt this is anything more than a wild ride (hello .588 BABIP and 42.9% HR/FB rate), so I can’t justify telling you to go get him. But I couldn’t ignore that level of production completely.

Andy Pages – 9.8 P/G

I talked about Pages on today’s Keep or Kut podcast, and I have my concerns. I don’t think his job is safe (though if he keeps hitting, he’ll likely keep playing) because the Dodgers are so deep. Hyeseong Kim 김혜성 is coming and when he arrives, Tommy Edman needs a spot in the OF. Alex Freeland, Esteury Ruiz, James Outman are all in Triple-A and performing. There are plenty of options to bump him out of regular playing time, should he falter at all. His .303 xwOBA suggests he hasn’t been as good as the surface level stats suggest. He still chases too much and his squared up rate (the percent of time he maxes out the potential exit velocity of a swing) is in the 3rd percentile, so he isn’t consistently making great contact. I picked up Pages in at least one league (so far) and plan to ride this performance as long as I can, but I don’t expect him to be a guy I am still relying on (or, perhaps, even have on my rosters) by the All-Star Break.

Griffin Canning – 6.6 P/IP

I almost gave the nod to Andrew Heaney at 7.7 P/IP over this stretch, but Heaney is rostered in 77.7% of leagues vs. 59.3% for Canning, so let’s talk Canning. Canning hardly has an elite track record, but leaving the Angels is rarely a bad thing (it’s a tough park to pitch in and the Angels history doesn’t suggest they get the most out of their SP) and going to the Mets (much better park, much better org) can’t hurt. And he has improved. Or at least changed a bit. He is using his slider a lot more (up to 36% from 24% last year), the slider is getting more drop, and it is getting to the edge of the zone more regularly. It was already his best pitch by whiff% and using it more hasn’t changed that. His four-seamer, which was where he gave up the most damage last year, is both being used less prominently (only down 2% but now his second-most used pitch instead of first) and appears to have a bit more movement. It’s not a huge change but it might be enough:

He’s getting 1.8 inches more tail and 0.5 more inches of rise. And that has moved the pitch from having basically perfectly league average movement last year to moving more than league average this year. The pitch used to do exactly what hitters expected it to do. Now it doesn’t.

Are those changes obvious proof that Canning is a better pitcher than he was before? Probably not. The Stuff+ has improved but still isn’t great, for example. But for now, I am definitely interested in trusting that the Mets have unlocked something the Angels didn’t. The upside if that is true makes Canning an obvious pickup, in my opinion.