Ottoneu Hot Right Now: April 19th, 2023

The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Mason Miller – 132 current auctions

There are three things you need to know about Mason Miller:

1. He is expected to be called up soon. So soon that by the time you read this, he might be on the roster. He should make his MLB debut shortly after getting the official call-up.
2. The talent is obscene. He has struck out 51.5% of the hitters he has faced in his professional career. He has walked just 5.8%. He has the makings of a special pitcher.
3. Since being drafted almost two years ago, he has faced 103 batters. Read that again – he hasn’t thrown 103 innings or even recorded 103 outs. He has faced 103 batters. Injuries have limited him to 28.2 innings. If he makes two more starts this year, maybe three, that will pretty likely put him at a career-high for innings in a pro season.

When he throws, I suspect the innings will be great. I do not expect him to throw many innings though. If he stays healthy, Oakland will likely treat him with kid gloves, trying to keep him on the field and setting him up to be ready for 2024. But given his track record, he probably won’t stay healthy. I am bidding on Miller – the talent is just too good to ignore – but don’t be surprised if he throws 20-30 innings and then gets hurt or throws more like 50-60 innings and gets shut down.

Johan Oviedo – 71 current auctions

Oviedo is throwing his slider less often but featuring it more, if that makes sense. In 2022, he went 43.5% four-seamer, 40.1% slider, 10.9% curve and rarely used his change (5.5%). This year slider usage is down to 38.0% but it is his most-used pitch, followed by 31.2% four-seamers and 23.2% curves. The change still makes only rare appearances. But going from basically a two-pitch pitcher who mixed in a third and occasionally a fourth to a three-pitch pitcher who features 61.2% breaking pitches has made a world of difference. The slider has also gained more than 3 mph of velocity. Those changes have been followed by an increase in strikeouts, a decrease in walks, and a big jump in his groundball rate. I am definitely interested in a pitcher who has shown that type of improvement in his results, backed up by a shift in approach that can help explain the improved results.

Brent Rooker – 56 current auctions

In his Big Kid Adds piece yesterday, Jeff Zimmerman noted that Rooker is selling out for power, elevating and turning on everything he can. He also said, “He’s a fine option until he isn’t.” I agree with the sentiment, given Rooker’s track record, but it is worth noting that his K-rate is down to a pretty strong 16.7% and his walk rate is 9.5% – both would be career-best results. I am dubious he can keep this up – his chase rate is mostly unchanged, he is taking more pitches in the zone, and his contact rate is down. His swinging strike rate is the highest of his career. I suspect we’ll see the K-rate balloon to his career level (around 30%) and the high fly ball rate will lead to a lower BABIP. But if you need OF help, no harm riding the wave while you can.

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Roster Adds

Kris Bubic, Leauges with an Add (7 Days) – 87.18%

I covered Bubic in last week’s Hot Right Now, and there isn’t much to add except that I expect to cover him in next week’s Cold Right Now, as he is being dropped left and right after being hurt. He’s getting a second opinion and the team sounds pretty concerned, so I am concerned, as well.

Zach Neto, Leauges with an Add (7 Days) – 64.10%

Neto was the first member of the 2022 draft class to make his MLB debut and with good reason. Actually a few good reasons. One is that the Angels want to compete and have some holes in the lineup and he can fill one. Another is that he was very good in High-A and Double-A last year and was absolutely tormenting Double-A pitchers again this year.

My read on Neto is that he looks like a guy who will be good, not great, based on scouting reports I have read, but the minor league numbers look pretty great to me. He has 8 HR in 211 PA, has avoided significant strikeout issues and can draw a walk. Even if the minor league numbers are inflated vs. his MLB potential, there is a lot to like.

Given how thin MI is, not to mention all the MI injuries we have already seen, a SS set to play every day (which Neto appears to be) is pretty valuable. A SS set to play every day who also has some upside and could break out has even more value. I don’t see myself spending double digits on him, or even all that close, but I can see why someone with the cap space and the roster need would go that high.

Bryce Elder, Leagues with an Add (7 days) – 48.40%

Another name covered in last week’s Hot Right Now, I worried about a correction and it came, more or less. He wasn’t terrible against Kansas City (and he raised his Stuff+ to 71), but was under 4 P/IP for the first time this year and KC isn’t exactly a terrifying opponent. He gets Houston Friday. Are you giving him that start? I wouldn’t.

José Quijada, Leagues with an Add (7 days) – 47.12%

Quijada intrigued me in the off-season because he managed 6.7 P/IP last year with just 15 saves plus holds. Given how open the Angels bullpen was, it certainly seemed plausible he could deliver similar performances with more save or hold opportunities. I ended up staying away because a low ground ball rate made me worried about HR.

So far this year, he has increased the GB-rate (and avoided any HR) and added a save or hold in every single one of his seven appearances so far this year, including a save last night. The strikeout-rate is down, but his velocity is fine and he has increased his chase rate. He struck out two of the three batters he faced Tuesday and I expect more of that moving forward. Quijada is 52.24% rostered and that should go up. He’s worth checking out.

Anthony DeSclafani, Leagues with an Add – 43.59%

I also covered DeSclafani last week. He followed up my endorsement by putting up his worst start of the year – which was still worth 4.71 P/IP and last 6.2 innings. I remain all-in.

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Hot Performers

As I am writing this, on Tuesday night, Patrick Wisdom hasn’t hit a HR in more than 24 hours, which doesn’t seem noteworthy except he had hit 5 HR in his last 4 games coming into play today. And I was going to say he didn’t have an extra-base hit in 24 hours but I had to erase that because he was 1-5 with a double. The man is absolutely on fire. He is also rostered in more than 93% of leagues, which means he won’t be auctioned or added much, which is why he didn’t show up earlier in this article. So if he’s already rostered everywhere, why bring him up here at all? Because I would advise you to sell high. He is still striking out over 30% of the time and it is only that low thanks to a huge jump in c0ntact rate. He may in fact make more contact this year than last, but there is still likely regression coming and if he ends up striking out 35% of the time again, that’s a tough hill to climb. With some correction coming in his HR/FB rate, as well, I think Wisdom ends up looking more like his 2021 self than his 2023 so far. That’s a useful player, but if someone wants to buy salivating over a 50-HR season, let them.

Your top-scoring hitters over the last week is littered with interesting names – Cody Bellinger and Justin Turner are trying to rebound from down 2022s; Kyle Schwarber and Austin Hays are showing signs of life after rough starts. But Michael A. Taylor stands out. He is tied for 16th in points this week despite playing just six games vs. seven for many others. Three HR in a week will do that. And Taylor, unlike the others, is less than 1% rostered in Ottoneu leagues. The biggest thing with Taylor is that he is playing – his role wasn’t clear when he went to Minnesota but he has appeared in every game so far this year. He probably won’t play 162, but he’s going to play a lot. That could lead to counting stats – he has run less recently but I could see a 15/10 season that has some nice value in Ottoneu 5×5 leagues. The problem is, this hot week aside, Taylor has a nice long track record of being pretty useless in Ottoneu points leagues. He has struck out 37.7% of the time this year and the walk he drew Tuesday was his first. So for the 99% of you who see him as a FA in your league, I don’t see any reason to act.

Meanwhile, on the bump, Wade Miley has 5.58 P/IP so far this year and while that seems flukey, he put up 4.44 in. limited time last year and 4.03 in a less-friendly environment in 2021. He is just 6.09% rostered, but if you are desperate for innings, it’s probably worth considering that Miley has now put up 4.23 P/IP over his last 218 innings dating back to the start of 2021 and he is now pitching with an org that has a strong recent track record with pitchers.