Ottoneu Hail Mary
It’s crunch time. Trades and keepers for all ottoneu league are due in just a little over two days. An offseason of reshaping your roster is about to be locked in place for all of 2016. Are you ready?
If you’re like me, you have a preponderance of complementary parts hanging around your roster. I finally succeeded in trimming my roster below the $400 threshold by trading $36 Zack Greinke and parts for $19 Jason Kipnis and parts. Now I have 13 players who are hanging around the edge of my roster. Realistically, I’ll probably keep about five of them.
If I were to cut all of them, I’d have $341 dedicated to 19 roster spots. I have the talent to contend even with less than $3 per remaining roster spot. My rotation is chock full of studs, my bullpen is headlined by a couple 10 pt/IP arms, and my lineup is only missing a utility man, fifth outfielder, and depth. I just need to very carefully choose who will fill the depth roles.
In my heart of hearts, I already know which players and staying and which are going. But I’m trying to squeeze every last cent out of them. To this end, I’ve sent every owner a volume offer containing eight or nine players for one target I’d definitely keep.
These volume offers serve two purposes. They might be accepted outright with my trade partner simply cutting whichever parts he didn’t like. Because these are all players around the fringes of a roster – like a $3 Brock Holt – owner evaluations can vary wildly. The players I’m asking for – generally in the $2 Alex Bregman category of asset – are of a sort that a couple bullish projections on Holt and another guy in my offer could push the calculus in my favor.
When, inevitably, your trade is rejected, you’ll get two types of responses.
- “You’re kidding right? Why would I do this?
- “No, I only like X, Y, and Z. The other five are bums.
The first answer is useful in that it tells you which owners to not even bother to pursue. Maybe they don’t like your players, or maybe it’s just the framework. Whatever the issue is, you don’t have any time left to mess with uninterested owners.
The second answer is more directly helpful. Now you know which players your rival likes, and you may get a sense for how he or she values them. This is the foundation of a real, actual trade talk.
It’s here where the volume approach could backfire. Holt and another player for Bregman might line up in terms of value. But if your initial offer was Holt, the other guy, and seven more players, then your prospective trade partner is anchored to a higher valuation.
You won’t have time to talk him down to your best offer. I recommend simply explaining your initial process. Admit you knew some of those players you offered were cuts. Obviously, right? But you also felt that they were all people somebody might want to keep. You just want to be done with it in one fell swoop.
There’s a reason the post is titled Hail Mary – this approach isn’t likely to work. It might, it’s just not a high percentage play. For what it’s worth, here are the 13 players on my bubble:
$3 Holt
$3 Danny Valencia
$6 Adam Lind
$7 Alex Rodriguez
$11 Brandon Moss
$9 Jonathan Schoop
$4 Brandon Phillips
$3 Nate Jones
$4 Kevin Siegrist
$3 Jerad Eickhoff
$7 Jake McGee
$2 Ozhaino Albies
$2 Jose De Leon
As I mentioned, I’ll probably keep five of these guys. Under the right circumstances, I could justify keeping any of them. I’m sad about McGee who was downgraded from automatic keeper to bubble boy yesterday. It’s a big hit to my bullpen either way.
For the players I don’t trade or keep, I will offer them for free to some of my rebuilding leaguemates. I hate for my closest rivals to get players cheaply.
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Seems like Phillips, Deleon, Mcgee are easy keepers. Albeis, Holt, Lind and Eikoff are bubble. The rest are pure dreck.
Seems that way to you maybe. I’ve had replies from three owners plus I know what I plan to do. The only player who hasn’t drawn interest in Moss.
McGee, Albies, Moss, Phillips, Holt
Valencia has enough of a track record to convince me his power is sustainable, and he crushes opposite handed pitching. He has a full time job, and he qualifies at multiple positions. Keep Valencia.
Eickhoff has a bit of a HR problem, but he generates Ks and does not walk many batters. He should earn his $3.
With the possible exception of De Leon, everybody else on your list is above auction price.
Do yourself a favor… Cut everybody except Eickhoff and Valenica.
Not that you asked for my opinion, but I constantly get asked in my league who to keep, who to cut, and who to trade.
I have the luxury of seeing the entire league, current rosters, and the free agent list to provide my insight (such as it is.)
Players like Valencia and Phillips “might” provide cheap depth depending on the remainder of your roster and who else is available. Nothing worse than the dumpster dive when multiple injuries hit.
PS…Tough break regarding McGee.
In my league’s auctions, any “projected” closer has gone for $10 or more easy — Clippard went for $16 last year. I don’t know if maybe there’s a lot more closers available (or Pts vs 5×5 is driving this), but I’ve gotta think someone would swap something of value for McGee.
McGee and De Leon I would keep. Maybe Valencia.
Just wanted to comment that I have been enjoying your articles about team strategy and interacting with the competition and all that. They are fun reads.
I’m confused about why you think McGee lost so much value with the trade. I know that Coors won’t help him, but don’t you think he has a better shot to close with the Rockies than he did with the Rays?
I play the fgPts format, so closer vs. setup man isn’t worth a ton over a full season. It can be an underappreciated aspect of relief value since they’re worth 1 point more than holds are typically are twice as common. But home runs are also very painful. Each home run works out to be .2 pts/IP. If he allows 5 surplus HR from being in Coors, he’s 1 pt/IP less valuable than he would have been in the Trop.
I saw a-rod go for more than double that in an auction this year (not ottoneu but still dynasty). I think you -might- be able to get something for him.
I found a taker for a free Brandon Moss. I’m happy with that.
I’ve added $7 Justin Turner to the list, but I think I’ll keep $7 McGee to balance that out.
Brad, do you have any advice for a redraft auction when people will be targeting your players specifically, by just bidding up players they think you want. How do you try to play down your interest when bidding on your targets (in person) and do you pretend to like players who you don’t actually like?
One thing could be to “stick” another owner with a player early (whether you liked the player or not) and act like you price enforced on him. Perhaps that would deter other people just adding $1 to your bids if they think you’re playing the game too.
I think that could be its own article. I imagine you’ve been in this situation before, and other readers have been as well.
I deal with this in almost every auction I attend, especially the ones that aren’t industry leagues. This is part of why I’ve taken to viewing players as asset classes. If I hype X, Y, and Z in articles, then I know I have to draft A, B, and C instead. The best method is to simply bid on every player. I recommend winning an elite player early – it can be hard to overpay for a Trout or Cabrera type.