Ottoneu Cold Right Now: September 6th, 2023

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
2. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Julio Urías, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 20.19%

Urías is not traveling with the Dodgers after being arrested on a domestic violence charge. Unfortunately, this is not the first such issue for the pitcher, as he was suspended 20 games for a similar 2019 arrest. In that 2019 case, the woman involved claimed she fell despite witnesses saying they saw Urías shove her (and video supposedly backing up those witness reports). Urías is not with the team while they (and the police and presumably the league) are investigating. Given his history, I think it is a safe bet that Urías is done for the year. The Dodgers seem to be distancing themselves from him already and the league is unlikely to let this go unpunished.

For what it’s worth, Urías’s 20-game suspension is one of the shortest in recent history under MLB’s Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy. Marcell Ozuna was also suspended 20 games in 2021, but the other nine cases since the start of the 2018 season have all been 40+ games. Unless this proves to be a misunderstanding (which I would bet against), Urías could be out a good long time. I have him on one roster and he’s next in line to be cut.

Yu Darvish, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 17.63%

Darvish is hurt and has an unclear timeline for a return to action, which is enough to justify a cut this late in the year. But it’s also worth noting that Darvish just hasn’t been very good this year. The one-time ace has been on a roller coaster since the 2018 season and just celebrated his 37th birthday. His average salary is north of $20 and he hasn’t come close to earning that value this year. He’s not a keeper and he isn’t helping you this year, so there is no reason to hold onto him.

Jurickson Profar, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 12.82%

Profar was decent for the Padres last year, but had a hard time finding a landing spot for 2023. When he signed with the Rockies fantasy managers rejoiced but we got the wrong kind of rocky season – a 71 wRC+ and 4.03 P/G. He was useful in Coors but even there he was only useful and not much more. That made him tough to roster. Now he has been cut loose and landed on a minor league deal with the Padres. San Diego might have need of him, but I don’t love his chances to have a real impact.

If he gets a call and regular playing time (the first a small-ish “if,” the second rather large, I think), he could be a dart-throw type pick up just to see if he can catch fire for a couple of weeks and help you in the stretch run. But he isn’t really more than that – even if you get him for $1, I can’t see keeping him for $3, and there is a good chance he plays sparingly the rest of the way, anyway.

James Paxton, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 12.82%

Paxton was a fun resurgence story earlier this year, but things have gone very wrong lately. His last three starts have netted him -38.46 points and while you could blame the Astro and Dodger offenses for that, the bulk of those lost points came in a -33.76 point outing at Kansas City.

Earlier this year, I suggested he might do well, but “I would expect him to only throw another 50-75 IP the rest of way, if things go pretty well. The smart money would be on less than that.” He ended July with 70 total innings, a 3.34 ERA and 3.59 FIP. Since then, he has a 7.62 ERA and 7.64 FIP in 26 IP. His fastball is almost 1 mph slower in August and September vs. earlier in the year. He may have managed to stay healthy, but it’s possible the innings are just catching up to him. He threw 44 innings from 2020-2022 combined, across all levels. It looks like he might be out of gas.

Josh Sborz Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 12.82%

Sborz was a hot pickup earlier this year, but after putting up negative points in five of his last six outings, he hit the IL. He now has just 5.8 P/IP on the season, which is actually the best season of his career. But it is still a really bad number for a reliever. Sub-6.0 RP don’t need to be rostered. Injured RP usually don’t need to be rostered. Injured with sub-6.0 P/IP should be 0% rostered. Sborz is still rostered in over a third of leagues. That should change.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Alek Thomas, 0.08 P/G:

Thomas was once a highly-regarded prospect and I have continued to buy in on a post-hype breakout. And I thought we might have had it! From May 6 through August 25, he seemed to have figured things out and was posting a 112 wRC+. It wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows as he was walking just 3.3% of the time and was relying on a .354 BABIP to get to that number, but it gave me hope. That hope has evaporated the last couple of weeks. If he gets it going again by the end of the year, maybe I will get back on the Alek-wagon in the off-season, but I think I am probably off for good.

Nolan Arenado, 0.10 P/G:

I imagine many fantasy managers are frustrated with Arenado lately and I suspect he is pretty frustrated, as well. Over the last ten games, Arenado has been walking at a higher rate than his season line, striking out at a lower rate, and posting just atrocious results. Hello .147 BABIP. His hard-hit and barrel rates have tanked, as well, but it’s such a small sample that I assume it is just noise. Except, this stretch also coincides with a back issue. On August 25, Arenado left a game early with back tightness and it kind of looks like he hasn’t been the same, since. If you want to leave him on the bench until he puts together a couple of hard-hit balls, I wouldn’t blame you. I am more likely to just ride this out with him and trust that it’s only been a brief stretch of issues that won’t continue. Now, if you are debating what to do with Arenado in the off-season…that is a different question and I am not ready to wrestle with that yet.

Lucas Giolito,  -5.19 P/IP:

When Giolito was claimed by the Guardians there were two competing reactions:

1. The Guardians are a pitching-rich, pitching-smart organization that has seen Giolito as much as anyone over the last few years. They must see something in him that made them want to take a shot at fixing him.
2. The Guardians pitching has been crushed with injuries, they are relying on a bunch of kids whose arms they want to protect for the future, and they were just using Noah Syndergaard to plug a hole in the rotation. They just need an innings eater to eat innings.

Uh…maybe both were wrong? Giolito did not look fixed nor did he eat innings in his first start for Cleveland. Obviously that isn’t the entire story, but for now, you can let Giolito go.