Ottoneu Cold Right Now: September 25, 2025

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature, we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

Roster Cuts

Clayton Kershaw, Add% Change (7 Days): -11.9%

Kershaw’s regular season career isn’t quite over but it is close. Kershaw made his final appearance at Dodger Stadium last week and while he is currently lined up to start the regular season finale in Seattle on Sunday, it isn’t clear if he will, in fact, make that start.

There isn’t a lot to say here – Kershaw has been the ace of aces for most of the history of Ottoneu, carrying more than his fair share of pitching staffs to great seasons. He’s a first-ballot Hall of Famer and one of the best pitchers – maybe the best – of his generation.

He’s obviously a cut, given his impending retirement. But if you wanted to keep him on your roster into January, just to drag your connection to his career out a little longer, I get it.

Ryan Bergert, Add% Change (7 Days): -11.9%

Bergert is on the IL, ending his season, but he is going to stay in this category rather than the next one because I am not sure he needed that IL stint to end up on this list. Through August 17, he had a 2.87 ERA despite a 4.06 FIP. Since then, his ERA is 5.63 despite a 3.89 FIP. That is heavily driven by an implosion at Cleveland (ironically, that was the only start all year that I had Bergert in any of my lineups in any of my leagues) but the overall picture for Bergert remains the same: unimpressive K-rate, high BB-rate, way too many fly balls.

He has somewhat limited hard contact, which has allowed him to survive that high fly ball rate. And the upside of all those fly balls is that his .257 BABIP allowed is relatively easily understood. But the profile simply isn’t one that inspires confidence, particularly in most Ottoneu formats, where low-K pitchers with high HR risk are even less exciting than they would be in 5×5. Even if he were healthy, he’s a risky play and not a guy I would want to be betting on for long-term fantasy relevance.

Injuries

Tylor Megill, Add% Change (7 days): -22.9%

It’s not a new injury, but an expanded one. Worsened one? Updated one? Whatever it is, the injury isn’t new but the update is. Megill hasn’t been on an MLB mound since June 14, but having been placed on the 60-day IL, more than a few managers were sitting on Megill waiting for his return. And who could blame them? Megill had been excellent in his 14 first-half starts, putting up 4.89 P/IP. He wasn’t going quite 5 IP per start, so the volume wasn’t great, but the results were.

Now, however, Megill has undergone Tommy John Surgery and so not only will he not be back in 2025, his 2026 is already over. That’s a brutal hit for a 30-year-old who had already posted a career best fWAR of 1.5 in just 68.1 IP and who was coming up on his first year of arbitration eligibility.

From a fantasy perspective, Megill is an easy cut now. As good as he was, there were some concerning signs. His walk rate (never a strong part of his game) had gone up to a career high 10.8%. His his hard-hit rate was a career-high, as well, at 43.8%. That’s only a small increase on his career numbers, but his max and average EV allowed were both up, and his launch angle was up, as well. Looking at those numbers, there is a bit of a sense that his HH% could have been even higher and that his career-low barrel rate (6.3%) might be at least a little bit noisy.

If you don’t need the cap space or roster spot, I guess there is no need to cut Megill today. But I will be dropping him in the off-season and he won’t be on my stash radar until at least very late next year.

Lucas Erceg, Add% Change (7 days): -16.2%

You ever feel like you were right and wrong about something at the same time? I was totally out on Erceg at the end of last year, despite the brilliant finish with Kansas City. My primary concern was that his walk rate had dropped so much and I didn’t buy that it was sustainable. The fact that is jumped up in the postseason wasn’t some glaring red flag (6 IP is never a glaring red flag) but it did confirm my priors. I also worried about his role – would he remain a closer if he was, in fact, giving up more walks again?

And I was right to be out on him – here is Erceg’s P/IP broken down into partial seasons:

One of these things is not like the others! But Erceg’s poor performance wasn’t due to his walks ballooning again, like I expected. Instead, the K’s just dried up. The walks did increase, but only a little and he could have sustained that if it weren’t for the total lack of strikeouts. He lost velocity on all of his pitches. His Stuff+ got worse across the board. His slider, which had been a put away pitch, netting more than 1/3 of this 2024 K’s on 28% usage, became far more hittable, getting him fewer K’s and giving up much better contact to hitters.

But what has pushed managers into cuts this week is that Erceg was placed on the 15-day IL with an impingement in his pitching shoulder. That’s not a total disaster – it isn’t a tear or anything like that – but it’s will end his 2025. Given his weak performance this year, there is no reason to keep him right now. If we find out in the off-season that he was pitching through this shoulder issue all year, I could understand managers taking a risk on him in March, but it won’t be me.

Michael Kopech, Add% Change (7 days): -15.3%

Kopech is another reliever placed on the IL, ending what has been a short and disappointing season for the Dodger. He’ll be a speculative play in March and nothing more.

 

Cold Performers

Cold performers are marked by measuring low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Brenton Doyle, -1.9 P/G

There was a stretch there where it looked like Doyle had found his stroke and saved his season.

If that nice peak around game 115 had either continued or at least leveled off at a more reasonable spot, his 2026 draft stock would probably be kinda high. There would be a ton of “did you see Brenton Doyle’s second half?!” sleeper articles and everything. Instead, his September has been so bad that his brilliant August has been washed away into a below average second half – which is somehow still an improvement on his first half. He probably is an interesting buy low for next season, but this run has made that less obvious and made him less enticing.

Michael King, -3.7 P/IP

King looked like he was picking up where he left off, until he hit the IL in May. Since coming back, he’s looked pretty rough. He looked like he might be coming around in his most recent start, but he still had four walks and the White Sox aren’t exactly Murderer’s Row. I am still a believer – I am willing to mostly write off this stretch as a result of injury and rust. But boy has this been ugly.