Ottoneu Cold Right Now: May 13, 2024

Cold Right Now (CRN) is a weekly Ottoneu feature focused on players being dropped or who should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. In this feature we will break down players into three sections:

1. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players who have been cut in a high percentage of leagues.
2. Recent Injuries: A look at the implications of recent injuries (not all, just some high-profile ones).
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

This article will typically run once per week and will help fantasy managers keep track of players that need to be given extra attention to improve rosters.

NOTE: Today’s post reflects data through Saturday, May 4th (does not include stats from Sunday, 5/5)

Roster Cuts

Joe Boyle, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 27.8%

No one was over 30% this week, which is maybe good news. Though not for Boyle. Boyle was a popular late target in auctions, after a solid cup of coffee last year. He also had some strong minor-league performances, at least if you only focused on strikeouts. His overall lines were fine and the strikeouts were good, but the walk rates were ugly. And not just, “That might not work in MLB” ugly. We are talking 10.1% in D0uble-A and 16.7% in Triple-A before he got things under control when he was called up.

But the control wasn’t there in the spring and we really shouldn’t be shocked, given this background, that he posted a 17.8% walk-rate in his first 27.2 IP this year. This is the story for Boyle – he gets K’s but he gives up walks and that isn’t a super sustainable approach. We see high-K, high-BB pitchers succeed, but guys like Blake Snell, Kodai Senga, and Dylan Cease are giving up around 4 BB/9. Boyle was almost at 7.5 and that was not an outlier for his career.

Now Boyle finds himself on the IL and managers are taking advantage of the opportunity to remove him from their rosters. It’s the right now – he needs to show more consistent command and control before you need to think about him again.

Trevor Rogers, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 20.9%

I was very interested in Rogers before the season, so I am pretty disappointed to be writing this. But Rogers just doesn’t offer much for fantasy managers. His ERA is deceiving – he deserves better than 6.57 – but not enough better for us to care. The strikeouts are lower than we need, the velo is down 2.5 MPH from when he was at his best. He may pitch to that FIP the rest of the way and be a solid rotation piece for the Marlins, but that won’t cut it for you. It makes sense to move on.

Matt Brash, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 20.6%

Last week, I said:

I have a hard time sitting on any reliever for an extended period. Sitting on an injured reliever with an unclear timeline who may or may not be the same pitcher when he is back and who wasn’t really elite last year just isn’t something I would be willing to do.

Well, now we have clarity on the timeline, as Brash underwent Tommy John Surgery. He won’t be back even be the start of 2025, so there is no reason for him to be on your roster.

Abner Uribe, Leagues with a Cut (7 days) – 20.3%

Last week, I said:

The difference is that Uribe [as compared to Brash] was healthy and struggling and was sent to Triple-A. That is arguably worse – at least if Brash came back you don’t have a month of poor performance staring you in the face as you decide what to do with him. It’s also arguably better – if he throws well, he could be back by Mid-May, and Brash is certainly not on that timeline.

Uribe isn’t giving up runs in Triple-A. which is great, but the strikeouts are not back yet. I want to see those before I buy back in.

Recent Injuries

Jung Hoo Lee 이정후 – IL stint impending, dislocated shoulder

Any injury to any player is bad, but I feel particularly awful for Lee. He made the move to MLB, started a life in a new country, was off to a slow start as he adjusted. And then, starting May 3, he began a 6-game hitting streak. He hadn’t been great over that stretch – 9 hits, 8 of them singles, and no walks, leaving him with a high average and no other interesting stats to speak of. But it was still progress and a sign that maybe he was finding his way to more success.

Then he injures himself before he gets a PA Sunday, ending the hitting streak and maybe ending his season. It is premature to assume the worst, but a dislocated shoulder is no joke and pending his MRI, a lengthy absence is very much on the table.

Given his performance to-date and the very real concerns about his power never being enough to be a useful Ottoneu bat, I have no problem letting him go. If you have him very cheap ($5 or so) and want to wait and see, I can understand that. But I would be cutting him from my rosters.

Michael Conforto – 10-day IL, right hamstring strain

A hammy can be a short-term injury or a longer-term absence, depending on the severity. Conforto doesn’t have a great health history, so I can understand if managers are concerned about this one.

Conforto has played in 125 games in two of the last three seasons (and 0 in the other) so you were never expecting more than 120-130 games anyway. And given that, I am inclined to say this injury doesn’t really change things much. Conforto is off to a good start, particularly in terms of power, as he is posting his best ISO since the 2019 rabbit ball year.

I would be pretty concerned if this were a shoulder injury, but I would wait this one out, at least until we get more clarity on a possible return date. If we are talking 3-4 weeks, I think he is worth holding.

Cold Performers

Cold performers are marked by measuring low P/G or P/IP in the last 14 days.

Jake Burger – -1.8 P/G

Burger’s return was anxiously awaited by his many fans and he has gone 2-25 without a walk or an extra-base hit. He has been hitting the ball hard – 64.3% HH-rate – so this is probably just a blip. I am sure you are frustrated to be getting all those -4’s, but they’ll be balanced out, if you can be patient.

Michael Harris II – -0.9 P/G

Remember his horrible start last year? Did you trade him away because you were a little panicked? Well, I did. I am not doing that again.

Carlos Rodón – 0.4 P/IP

Homers have been a real issue for Rodon, but most of the pain comes from a three-homer implosion against Baltimore and it’s really hard to hold that against him given what Baltimore is doing. He has 21 K and 1 BB in his last 16.1 IP. I would buy low, if I can.