Ottoneu Cold Right Now: July 24, 2023

Much like Hot Right Now, Cold Right Now will be a weekly Ottoneu feature with a focus on players who are being dropped or who maybe should be dropped in Ottoneu leagues. Hot Right Now will focus on players up for auction, players recently added, and players generally performing well. Cold Right Now will have parallel two of those three sections:

1. Injuries: Players who are being cut because of IL stints.
2. Roster Cuts: Analysis of players with high cut% changes.
3. Cold Performers: Players with a low P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

There won’t be a corresponding section to Current Auctions because, well, there is nothing in cuts that correspond to current auctions.

Roster Cuts

Hunter Harvey, Leagues with Cut (7 days) – 24.68%

I can’t quit Hunter Harvey. I have loved the talent for years. He has a high-90s fastball that both gets in the zone more often than the average MLB RP and gets more chases than the average MLB reliever. He has strong whiff rates on all of his primary pitches. And last year he seemed to have broken out, getting his first real run of success in the bigs.

This year has been the same…but different. His strikeout and walk rates are very similar while his ground ball rate has actually increased, but his HR/FB rate has jumped, leading to a big jump in FIP, driving up his ERA despite a correction (probably an overcorrection) in his BABIP vs. 2022. His hard-hit rate hasn’t changed much, but he is giving up more barrels as hitters are getting squaring him up more often (his Statcast Sweet Spot rate has been trending up, particularly over the last couple of months).

And now he is hurt. He says his elbow strain isn’t a big concern, but given his injury history and the rocky 2023 performance, there is no reason to keep him on your roster while he works his way back. He is still putting up 7.54 P/IP and was even better over the last couple of weeks, so he is worth watching and adding back when he is healthy – but wait for him to be healthy.

Josh Sborz, Leagues with Cut (7 days) – 22.12%

Just a month removed from his debut in Hot Right Now, Sborz has journeyed to the dark side of the Right Now universe. He was getting touted in the Ottoneu RP Drip before he jumped into the Hot Right Now conversation, and with good reason. As of June 21, he had thrown 30 IP, with sub-3.00 ERA, FIP and xFIP, striking out 39, walking 9, and allowing just one HR.

Over his next 7.2 IP, he allowed three more HR and walked four, and while he still struck out 13, that’s just too much damage. And then, like Harvey, he went on the IL. Sborz is dealing with tendinitis in his bicep, which isn’t ideal for a pitcher. He’s eligible to return from the IL on Thursday, but I have not seen any reports indicating whether or not that will happen.

I still like the talent and you can see that even in that rough stretch he was piling up strikeouts. If he is available in your leagues, I would watch the news and add him when he comes back. If the tendinitis clears up but the homeritis doesn’t, you’ll want to move on again quickly.

Anthony Rendon, Leagues with Cut (7 days) – 19.87%

Rendon is injured, again, which is of course a problem and driving these drops. But at this point I am also not sure what you are expecting for or looking for from him. I understood in March wondering if maybe he would be healthy and get right again. But we are now looking at this line for his last 625 PA (dating back to the start of the 2021 season):

.235/.338/.363 for a .312 wOBA with 13 HR and 29 doubles.

That isn’t good. In Ottoneu terms, it is 4.33 P/G. He has shown flashes of better performance, but they are just that – brief flashes – the the full picture is inconsistent performance interrupted by injuries and never good enough on the whole to be worth a lineup spot. He is 33 years old and has been this way for three years. I need to see some real reason to believe things are different before I jump back on the good ship Rendon.

Cold Performers

To measure cold performers this week, I’m looking for players with low P/G or P/IP in the last 30 days.

Daulton Varsho  0.41 P/G:

 

Lucas covered him last week and said “he has nowhere to go but up” and I just wanted to note that he has continued to go down, but it still feels like he has nowhere to go but up. Right? I am benching him but not ready to cut.

Ty France,  0.65 P/G:

France was such a reliable bat for the last three years, but this year he’s struggled. The 5.25+ P/G you could bank from him the last two years has dipped to 4.19 this year. He’s a guy I wanted to see pull the ball more and elevate the ball more and he is doing that, but his HR/FB rate has plummeted to 7.1% after being at 14.1% last year. And honestly, that explains most of the issues – if you give him a 14.2% HR/FB rate that is seven more HR. If we assume those extra HR replace fly balls that are caught on the track (obviously not a safe assumption but work with me here), he would have 5.36 P/G. If we make the better assumption that those seven fly balls were previously four fly outs, two doubles and a single, he would be at 5.12 P/G and we wouldn’t be having this conversation.

But France has an increased barrel rate vs. last year and a slightly decreased hard-hit rate, though both are very much in-line with what we expect from France.

A layer deeper, his issues seem to be almost entirely with breaking balls. Last year, France .373 wOBA and .332 xwOBA vs. breakers. You would expect some regression, but this year he is at .278 wOBA and .298 xwOBA. He is also getting himself into worse counts – he is taking more first pitches and, possibly as a result, is seeing more first-pitch strikes, as well. Then he is swinging and chasing more later in his plate appearances.

He requires a deeper dive to really figure out what is wrong, but for now I am waiting and watching. There are some positive signs, along with the negative, and I expect he’ll turn it around. But I am getting concerned.

Carlos Rodón, 1.36 P/IP:

He has not looked good so far. In his first three starts of the year, post-injury, Rodón walked nine, struck out 11 and allowed 4 HR in 14.IP. And to make matters worse, rather than showing progress, his most recent start featured two of the four HR and five of the nine walks. It also showed his lowest velocity.

And that is all the analysis of the numbers I am going to do. Even with his last start, Rodón’s velocity looks fine. He threw just 10.2 MiLB innings, so what we are seeing right now is still practically spring training for him. Rodón is an ace, I suspect he will be pitching like an ace very soon. If he still looks like this in mid-August, we should again.