Ottoneu: Chad’s 2026 Keep or Cut Decisions on the Mound

We wrap up this series today with a look at tough keep or cut calls on pitchers. This is the group I like the least. Pitching is an area where I least trust the projections and so I have the hardest time figuring out how to value these guys. As a result, I tend to prefer obvious values and I am often willing to pay a premium in trade for a guy pitcher I have no questions about. Of course, they are pitchers, so there are always questions – volatility in performance, injury risk, etc. But, I still have to make decisions, so here are some of my tough ones.

Pablo López, SP
Salary: $28, $22
Average Salary: $20
2025 P/IP: 5.20
Projected 2026 P/IP: 4.46

I spent aggressively on López last year and it looked likely to pay off, but he only managed 60 innings before getting hurt, then came back for 15 mostly meaningless and unimpressive innings at the end of the year. And now what we are left with is a pitcher who, by P/IP, was the best he has ever been, but who didn’t pitch nearly enough innings to establish that 5.20 as a new baseline.

Under the hood, I am not even sure this was “best he’s ever been” type performance. His K-rate was the lowest it has been since 2019 and below his career average. If you throw out his late season return and ignore the one start in June (before he went down with injury), the K-rate is better – 25.2% – but even that is only barely better than his career mark (24.9%) and his lowest mark in three years.

He made big gains in his BB-rate (4.9% before June, down from 6.3% for his career), but he didn’t hold those gains through the injury, and I have a hard time trusting 55 innings in April and May over the other 900+ innings in his career.

He also posted a 7.1% HR/FB rate on the year (12.7% for his career), which helped drive the ERA to 2.74 despite a 3.87 xFIP.

There isn’t any obvious gain in Stuff+ or velo, there isn’t a change in repertoire to point to. He was, more or less, the same pitcher he has always been, but had a really great run of 55 innings before getting hurt. This is true even if you isolate the great stretch to start the year. His fastball, slider and change make up more than 80% of his pitch mix in recent years. His Stuff+ on those pitches were 98, 93, and 89 over 2024-25. Over the first two months of ’25, they were 91, 91, and 104. Maybe he made big improvements in his changeup (Stuff+ on that pitch stayed at 97 even through the injury in June and his return in September) but how much do you want to bet on that?

Keep or cut?

Cutting at $28 and probably keeping – but not for sure – at $22. All of what I see (and the projections seem to agree) suggests that López is the same guy he has been for a while, which is a very good pitcher, probably in the $15-$20 range for a startup league. With inflation, that might get him to $22, but not $28. The problem is that assumes 180 or so IP, and I am not sure how I feel about that. Recent reports are that he is fully healthy and having a normal off-season. And we did see him on the mound to end the year. But 180 IP feels like a reach and at even 150 IP, he would be right at the bottom of that $15 range, and then even $22 is a lot.

__

Joey Cantillo, SP
Salary: $8, $6, $6, $6
Average Salary: $4
2025 P/IP: 5.02
Projected 2026 P/IP: 4.22

Before doing anything else, it’s important to talk about how he managed greater than 5 P/IP last year. Because if you take that at face value, he’s a keep up to $10 without much thought. But Cantillo was in a swing role last year, making 21 appearances and throwing 28.1 IP out of the pen vs. 13 appearances and 67 IP as a starter. Relief innings are higher value, so that should inflate his P/IP. And sure enough he has one hold and one save – 9 total points that he can’t get as a presumed full-time SP in 2026 – taking him down to 4.93 P/IP overall.

But relief innings tend to be higher value even after you strip out saves and holds, so we might need to discount Cantillo further. Except Cantillo didn’t follow that trend. His K/9 was higher as a reliever, as one might expect, but his walk rate was a bit worse and his HR/FB rate was a lot worse. That drives a lot of value in FanGraphs Points (as well as 4×4), and it turns out Cantillo was only 3.14 P/IP as a reliever. As a starter? 4.95.

So that is our starting point – 4.95 P/IP over 67 IP as a rookie. And if you don’t want to let him off the hook for his performance as a reliever (but also don’t want to give him credit for that save and that hold), you end up back at that 4.93 P/IP. Basically, no matter how you cut it, Cantillo was quite good in 2025.

That performance wasn’t just noise, either. Cantillo posted a 12.1% swinging strike rate. Had he crossed 120 IP (and I know we can’t assume he would have continued, but that’s fine for now), he would have been tied for 22nd (with Sonny Gray) among the 105 SP who reached that threshold. This despite his velo being down (91.7 in 2025 vs. 92.2 in his MLB debut in 2024, and as high as 93.4 in Triple-A in 2023). Could he regain that velo? Well, his last four starts he averaged 92.8. His last five, he averaged 92.4.

What stands out about those starts is not that they were short (29 IP over those five starts), but that they came after he was optioned and made two starts in Triple-A before coming back up locked into a rotation spot for the stretch.

That doesn’t mean we should assume he will come back hitting 93 regularly. It doesn’t mean that his 2025 baseline will repeat. But there is enough there to suggest that: a) 2025 wasn’t a fluke and b) there may be upside for more.

Keep or Cut?

Keep. All four of’em. I acknowledge I am higher than most on Cantillo. Paul Sporer’s updated rankings have him 86th (though those are 5×5 focused and low win expectations aren’t helping. Nick Pollack’s early rankings at Pitcherlist have Cantillo 79th. Those aren’t bad rankings! But they aren’t “you have to keep this guy at $6+” rankings, either. But I like enough of what I see to want to stick with Cantillo.

__

Sandy Alcantara, SP
Salary: $11
Average Salary: $10
2025 P/G: 3.89
Projected 2026 P/G: 4.00

Why are we even having this conversation? Alcantara was bad last year. He projects to be better but not actually good this year. He isn’t inexpensive. And yet, this feels like a tough call for me.

First, as unimpressive as 4.00 P/IP sounds, from a projections standpoint, that is above replacement level. That means he is worth something and if you think that 4.00 is highly reliable and more floor than anything, that has value.

Second, I have him in 4×4, where his volume plays up and where his historical HR/9 numbers add a ton of value to his profile.

Third, he made significant improvements as the season wore on. Working back from injury, his April and May were terrible. After that? Not so bad. From the start of June through the end of the season, Alcantara got his K-rate up to 20.1%, the walk rate down to 5.5%, and limited HR more effectively, for a 3.81 FIP and 3.86 xFIP. That’s good for 4.52 P/IP. Things look even a little rosier if you ignore his last two starts – both because they might represent him running out of steam in his first season back from injury and because one of those starts included 2 HR and 2 BB at Coors – and you were never going to pitch him there, right? The FIP dips to 3.60 without those two starts, and the P/IP runs up to 4.69. I am starting to feel good now, how about you?

Keep or Cut?

I am going to keep. The big thing to me is that decrease in walk rate (accompanied by real gains in Location+). His Stuff+ looked fine all year, but as the season wore on, he regained his command, and it shows in the numbers. That’s pretty typical for guys coming back from Tommy John Surgery – even after they get their stuff back, the command lags. It looks to me like it came back and while that won’t make Alcantara the ace he looked like a few years back, it does suggest he can keep on chugging along over 4.50 P/IP with good rates and volume for 4×4.