Ottoneu: Chad’s 2026 Keep or Cut Decisions at MI

We’re now onto the fourth installment of our Keep or Cut decisions series. Jake has offered up his tough choices at CI/C and MI, I covered CI/C last week so now it is my turn to discuss MI. Usually, I make a point of looking at names Jake didn’t look at, but this week, I am going to start by (quickly) rehashing one of the players he covered with a slightly different take.

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Jackson Holliday, 2B/SS
Salary: $12
Average Salary: $14
2025 P/G: 4.26
Projected 2026 P/G: 5.08

Jake’s write up of Holliday was mostly spot-on, so I am not going to rehash it. You should go read it. But I come to a different conclusion, at least a little different.

Part of that is how I view his projections vs. what Jake sees. Jake wrote this on Monday:

The projections see a small step forward from him in 2026 which is pretty reasonable given his pedigree and age. Still, those improvements only get him to the level of a replacement level middle infielder in fantasy baseball.

Emphasis is mine, because this is the part I disagree with. Looking at my values, Justin Vibber’s Surplus Calculator, and the Auction Calculator, I get values of anywhere from $6-$8 for FanGraphs Points leagues and $7-$12 for 4×4.Those values, keep in mind, are pre-inflation. The large range for 4×4 is in part because I create multiple versions of my values, as I prefer to have a range to work off rather than a specific point, and I got less “agreement” in my 4×4 methods.

Now, it’s not like I see a clear-cut $20-$30 stud 2B where Jake see’s a bench guy, but the difference between “level of a replacement level middle infielder” and even the $6 low-end of my ranges is significant. The biggest change is that if you believe Holliday is likely a $6 MI who might push double-figures, you should be much more comfortable pencilling him in as your starting MI or even your starting 2B. In fact, as I work on my upcoming pre-season rankings, Holliday lands pretty easily in my top 15 2B and top 30-35 MI, even before giving him a “what if he breaks out?!” boost.

And I think that boost is and should be real. Ottoneu is a keeper format, which means you have to value players for this year (and, in my opinion, primarily for this year) but not only for this year. Holliday very easily could breakout – we know he has the potential and he is still so young – and become a star. It is worth a premium to have him on your roster. That’s a harder sell if he looks like a <$5 guy where he might be actively hurting your team and you can’t rely on him to start. But that isn’t how I see his projections.

Keep or Cut?

I am keeping at $12. I have been actively trying to trade for him at $10. I have no issue keeping him up to $15. I could see a case for going higher. And in an auction, if I need a 2B, I might go even higher than that. If I spend $15 on a 2B who is only worth half that, that isn’t ideal but it won’t kill my season. I can’t do that at every spot in the order, but you can take a shot on it here. But if I spend $15 on a 2B who turns into a $30 stud, he’ll not only help me this year, but he’ll make a huge difference in my long-term outlook.

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Brett Baty, 2B/3B
Salary: $3
Average Salary: $5
2025 P/G: 3.89
Projected 2026 P/G: 4.73

I have been high on Baty for a bit now, waiting for his breakout to come, and now I find myself looking at his 2025 Points per Game and thinking, “How was he that bad?” At some level, however, the answer is that he wasn’t. No, I am not claiming that 3.89 P/G is good, but I am saying 3.89 P/G doesn’t reflect how he performed.

Baty’s .324 wOBA and 111 wRC+ tell a really different story than his 3.89 P/G. Those numbers look a lot like Nico Hoerner (.324 wOBA, 109 wRC+, 4.79 P/G) and CJ Abrams (.324, 107, 5.32). How do three MI put up similar performances and end up with such different FanGraphs Points scores?

Power and speed play a role – there are multiple paths to a .324 wOBA, the higher OBP/lower SLG path taken by Hoerner doesn’t play as well in this format. Speed matters too – stolen bases don’t boost your wOBA, but they will boost your P/G, and Hoerner (29 SB against 6 CS) and Abrams (31, 3) are both much bigger plusses there than Baty (8, 0).

But a bigger factor is PA per game. While in fantasy we are looking at scoring on a per-game basis, wOBA is effectively a per PA basis, and Baty didn’t get enough PA. Hoerner had 649 PA in 156 games for 4.16 PA/G. Abrams had 635 over 144 for 4.41 PA/G. Baty had 393 PA in 130 games for 3.02 PA/G. If you look at these three by P/PA and assume a more level PA/G, you get a very different story. Give Baty 4 PA per game (still a low number), and he is over 5 P/G in 2025!

But can you bank on him getting more PA/G in 2026? Or is this somewhat inherent to who he is? Well, there are three things that can drive down a players PA/G:

1. Hitting low in the lineup. Baty had 300 of his 393 PA hitting in the 7th or 8th spots of the Mets lineup. Roster Resource currently shows him hitting 6th, but he did end the year mostly hitting 7th or 8th. So that might improve, but maybe ot.
2. PH appearances. Stepping in for a teammate and getting 1 PA still counts as a game played, but it is only 1 PA in that game (or maybe you get a 2nd). Baty came in as a sub 24 times last year. That probably won’t change – he is likely still in a platoon role and that means he will be used as a PH, but we don’t really care about that. In most Ottoneu leagues, you are starting him when he is in the lineup and benching him when he is not (and therefore missing those PH appearances).
3. Getting pulled for a PH or defensive replacement. This is the counterpoint to #2 – coming in as a PH is often 1 G and 1 PA, but getting pulled for a PH (or a defensive replacement or a PR) costs you a PA per game. And Baty did get pulled often enough that his PA/G last year as a starter was 3.80. He had a number of a 3 PA games that might have just been a result of hitting low in the lineup, but also had some 1 and 2 PA games that had to be due to getting pulled. And, as noted in #2, that might continue to happen.

So what is a more reasonable project PA/G for him in 2026? Probably something very close to the 3.80 he put up as a starter in 2025. There is some upside there – maybe he has earned more runway to face lefties late in games? Maybe he will move up a spot? Those two things could push him up to over over 4 PA/G. But even at 3.80, using his 2025 production and 3.80 PA/G, you get 4.89 P/G. That’s good! Better than Hoerner! Better than his projection!

But I think there is even more to like about Baty. His second half was much better than his first. BABIP played a role, but his xwOBA improved, he walked more, he increased his ISO, pulled the ball more (and went oppo a lot less), hit fewer pop-ups…he was just better in the second half than the first.

Keep or cut?

I am happily keeping a $3 Baty and I think I’d hold even as he approached $10, though I don’t think I would go into double figures for him. Something around $8 feels like a reasonable cap. But I think he was better in 2025 than the P/G show on the surface and even without improvement (or without sustaining his second half gains), he has a clear path to beating his projected P/G just by benching him when he doesn’t start.

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Christian Moore, 2B
Salary: $5, $4
Average Salary: $5
2025 P/G: 3.19
Projected 2026 P/G: 4.19

Moore isn’t as fun a story. There is no magic “hey if you only look at games he started, he was actually quite good!” case to be made. He stunk. It happens. But he was a touted prospect with real potential who came into the season with a decent amount of hype. And then he stunk.

The red flags are somewhat obvious. The 33.7% K-rate, for example, is definitely concerning. None of the Statcast quality of contact measures are that exciting. And this sin’t only an MLB adjustment issue. His K-rates in Double-A (27.4%) and Triple-A (29.0%) both leave something to be desired, even if they aren’t so horrific they can’t be overcome. With those K-rates, he posted a 106 wRC+ in Double-A and a 104 in Triple-A. He wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire in the minors

So why are we talking about a guy who was bad in the majors, not great in the minors, and doesn’t project all that well for 2026? Mostly because he is only 23 and the Angels have no reason not to give him another good long look. That prospect hype happened for a reason!

Keep or Cut?

I have to let Moore go. I like him in the $1-$2 range and given inflation and whatnot, if I had him at $3, I might hold on. But even there, he’s a tough sell. You can’t plug him into your lineup. You can’t really assume much impact this year at all. You are kinda, sorta waiting to see if he can adjust to the high-minors, because there is still work to be done there. He’s basically still a prospect, getting a little pricey and with big question marks around him. That’s not a $4-$5 player for me.