Ottoneu Arbitration All Stars

Happy Arbitration Day, to those who celebrate! Today is the day Ottoneu Arbitration opens, both for vote off leagues and allocation leagues. If you are new to Ottoneu and not familiar with arbitration, there is a ton of information here – a quick Google search for “FanGraphs Ottoneu Arbitration” will bring up a decent number of results, but – before we get to the All Stars mentioned in the title – here are some of the best links.

To start, up through 2019, my former colleague Brad Johnson would publish an omnibus of arbitration content where you can find everything from introductory content to detailed strategies. Other articles have reviewed arbitration allocation data, reviewed arbitration strategies, offered up new thoughts on how to handle allocations, and offered advice for what to do as arbitration is coming to an end.

With all of that content out there, another “here is how to do arbitration” article felt unnecessary, but today is still an important day in the Ottoneu calendar, and so to mark that day, I present my Ottoneu Arbitration All Stars.

Like any All Star team, this roster will be made up of one player for each position. I am going to assume my ace SP will go 8 innings, so I’ll throw in a RP, as well. I am not going to force myself to pick a Util-only player, but I will select a DH so at least a Util-only player could make the cut. And I am going to use 2026 positional eligibility, since that should be what impacts arbitration allocations.

The goal here is to find the one player at each position most deserving of allocations or vote offs. It is important to note that because prices vary by league, some of these players might not be good targets in your league. I am going to use median Ottoneu prices to determine allocation worthiness. If a player on this list is 3x more expensive in your league, maybe you don’t need to hit them in arbitration. With that, the roster:

Catcher: Cal Raleigh

Raleigh put up an absurd 7.51 P/G, exactly 1.25 P/G more than the next best catcher. He also led all catchers with 159 games played. As a result, he put up 1194.2 points, third among all hitters and nearly 50% more than the next highest scoring catcher.  With a median salary of $10, he is a no-brainer arbitration target. It’s worth noting that catcher could have been a tough call. Shea Langeliers was second in P/G and Hunter Goodman second in total points at the position, and they have median salaries of $6 and $4 respectively. Both are viable arbitration targets. But Raleigh was so far and away the best C in the format, that even with some regression (no, I do not think he will hit 60 HR again), he is still the obvious favorite to be the best C in the format, and his price should reflect that.

First Base: Nick Kurtz

Among the top 10 1B by P/G, only two have median salaries below $12 – Kurtz ($5) and Jonathan Aranda (also $5). Only one other (Yandy Diaz at $12) is below $30. Kurtz coupled that low price with the highest P/G of any 1B this year. That is absolutely bonkers. Being #1 this year doesn’t mean he will be #1 next year. Remember, Kurtz is still a relatively new MLB hitter (though he did play 117 games) and he did strike out more than 30% of the time. He would not be the first player to put up an insane rookie/debut season and then take a step back as a sophomore. But the scale of the step back he would need to take to be worth less than $10, or even $20, is massive. If you think he is a lock to be a top 10 1B (and he’ll certainly be ranked as a top 10 1B), the numbers would tell you that is a $30+ player.

Second Base: Jorge Polanco

This is my first truly tough call. Luke Keaschall was better by P/G this year and is also inexpensive ($4 median vs. $3 for Polanco), but I worry about his ability to repeat what he did (the Statcast data doesn’t suggest he can hit the ball hard enough to be an elite 2B in this format), while Polanco has been a top-tier 2B for years. An injury-impacted 2024 made him a good buy-low coming into 2025 and – in my opinion – the market over-corrected, leaving him under valued. Arbitration is the moment to correct that.

Third Base: Junior Caminero

Caminero was pretty well hyped before the year, and so he isn’t that cheap, but at $11, he is still paid far below his 2025 production. Only two 3B crossed 6 P/G this year – Jose Ramirez at 6.53 and Caminero at 6.07. And, I have to be honest, it is hard not to look at his BABIP and wonder if there isn’t more coming. The smarter money is probably on some regression. He’s a young player without much of a track record and his home park is about to get much less friendly. But, as with Kurtz, even if you project a sophomore slump, he could slump quite a bit and still surpass $11 in value.

Shortstop: Geraldo Perdomo

Again, I am selecting a player who I expect to regress, and this is maybe a good moment to discuss that theme. The reality is, players who standout as arb all stars are, almost by definition, coming off breakout, career years. If they did what we expected of them, they would have been more expensive and less intriguing arbitration targets. Perdomo probably surprised me the most of the guys we have discussed so far, but his underlying numbers also support what he did. Perdomo is the kind of player that, even if I expect some regression, I am willing to buy high because I think he can and will be excellent. Maybe not “#1 SS by points, #2 by P/G” excellent, but close enough to make his $4 median salary way too low.

Outfield: Kyle Schwarber, Roman Anthony, and Jurickson Profar

There are plenty of other good candidates here – James Wood, Byron Buxton, Pete Crow-Armstrong, even someone like Juan Soto or Aaron Judge, despite their already-high salaries – but I went with these three, each for different reasons.

• Schwarber is paid decently ($29 median salary) but his price hasn’t touched the heights that his production has touched. He’s an absolute beast and teams that have him are likely thrilled at the prospect his high-ish price might allow him to bypass arbitration.
• Anthony came into the season as an elite prospect, but had not yet debuted, hence the $6 median salary. But he looked every bit the star when he played. I am cautious about how I allocate to young players with short track records, so I might not want to see him get the full $33 possible (I am not sure he needs to be pushed over $30, to be honest), but he should get a lot of arbitration – and there is a good chance he is a good target again in 2026.
• Profar’s suspension came with a lot of questions about how he would produce when he came back. He answered those questions. The concerns of a spotty track record (and the suspension) kept his salary to $6 median, but he was 11th in P/G among OF with 300+ PA. That deserves some attention in arbitration.

DH: Shohei Ohtani

Yes, I know he is already expensive, with a $70 median salary, but he could very easily be the #1 overall bat in 2026 (which would just a price over $70) and be a $30-$40 SP. Even if he is only a $65 bat and a $25 arm, that makes him a $90 player! Crazy.

Starting Pitcher: Paul Skenes

Remember above where I noted that Kurtz wouldn’t be the first player to have a brilliant debut and then take a step back? Or when I noted that Anthony didn’t need to be pushed over $30 this year, because we want to see him do it again? That was Skenes a year ago, when arbitration helped pushed his median salary to $27. And that was probably about right, though maybe a little low (remember, that means he would have been $25 before his salary increased, and he probably could have been pushed closer to $30). But, well, now he has done it again, and now it is time to make sure his salary reflects his production. If arbitration makes him the highest salaried pitcher in Ottoneu, that would be a totally fair outcome. For what it’s worth, Tarik Skubal ($28 median) should be pushed just as hard. And I could have given this spot to Garrett Crochet ($12 median), but Skenes (and Skubal for that matter) were both more than 0.6 P/IP better than Crochet.

Relief Pitcher: Cade Smith

This was a tough one for me because, to be honest, I rarely if ever want to target a reliever in arbitration. But I said I would name one to my team, so here we are. Only one RP was over 10 P/IP this year, and that was Aroldis Chapman ($7 median), who would be a viable target here. Trevor Megill was over 9 P/IP and just $6 median, making him an interesting target, as well. But smith stands out. He is 7th in P/IP among RP with 50+ innings. Only 8 pitchers without a start this year threw more innings than him. That combination means Smith and his $6 median salary put up 647 points, more than any other RP, just edging Chapman. With Emmanuel Clase likely out of the picture, Smith should do even better next year. He had 16 saves and 19 holds in 2025. Clase had 40+ saves each year from 2022-2024, averaging nearly 45. Give Smith 40 saves instead of what he got (and assuming 0 holds) and he adds 44 points to his total and he is up near 9.5 P/IP and well clear of Chapman for most overall points. Given he is also a more than a decade younger, if you have to target a reliever in arbitration, this is the one to target.