Oswaldo Arcia Displays His Power

So, he didn’t exactly launch the 30 homers I boldly predicted he would or lead the American League in the category, but Oswaldo Arcia’s power did spike as I expected. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough to result in a particularly useful fantasy season, as Arcia barely earned positive value and finished just 64th among outfielders.

That near replacement level production was primarily due to a wrist injury that occurred during the first week of the season. And while it took him over a month to recover and be activated from the disabled list, he was then sent to Triple-A, which kept him out of the Twins lineup for another 12 days. Arcia was finally back in late May, missing more than a month and a half of action. He endured several other maladies over the rest of the season, but nothing that kept him out for any significant amount of time. But between the wrist issue and his sometimes benching against southpaws, he was limited to just 410 plate appearances for the season.

His power, though, was on full display as he boosted his HR/FB ratio from 14.7% to 19.4% and ISO from .179 to .220. Last season, his batted ball distance reached nearly 303 feet, which ranked 14th in baseball. During last year’s outfielder recaps, I said this:

Of the 16 hitters who recorded an average distance above 300 feet, Arcia’s HR/FB rate was the lowest, coming in just below 15%. The unweighted average of the group was 22%, while 11 of the 16 posted rates of at least 20%. This all suggests that Arcia could be due for a nice bump in HR/FB rate next year if he maintains that same distance.

The power upside was clearly there and the odds favored more balls clearing the fence if Arcia were to continue hitting them that far. Curiously though, his batted ball distance actually fell to about 290 feet this year, which ranked 62nd in baseball. That remains well above the league average, but it is strange to see such a big jump in HR/FB rate despite a 13 foot decline in distance.

Moving away from the power, Arcia faces two major obstacles — making contact and hitting lefties. His 17.4% SwStk% was even higher than last year’s inflated 15.8% mark and ranked as the second highest in baseball among batters with at least 400 plate appearances. That obviously gives us little hope that he’ll be able to bring down his ridiculously high 31% strikeout rate significantly. His minor league history suggests the potential for much better contact, but he hasn’t shown any of that ability in the Majors yet. A more patient approach might suit him well as he swings more often than the average batter, while also missing at nearly double the rate.

His issues against lefties could cost him playing time. He posted just a .259 wOBA against them, which was more than 100 points lower than against right-handers. His strikeout and walk rates were only marginally worse, as was his BABIP, but his power completely disappeared. While the prospect of figuring out lefties does offer the hope of upside, it also enhances risk given the possibility that he never figures them out and becomes a strict platoon player.

Arcia has the fly ball tendency to remain a serious home run threat, but he needs to make better contact to fully take advantage of his power potential. Learning to hit lefties will also ensure that he doesn’t fall into a platoon role, which would severely limit his fantasy earnings upside. After another season of a 30%+ strikeout rate, I’m far less optimistic than I was heading into this season. However, he remains an intriguing late round gamble and cheap power source.