Carlos Gomez: Man of Many Swings

If I had my way, I would field a team of hitters who can play a variety of positions and contribute steadily across all five fantasy categories. Carlos Gomez meets the second of those conditions. His 95/23/73/34/.284 line made him the seventh most valuable outfielder and 12th ranked player overall per Zach Sanders’ accounting. FantasyPros says he cost $24 on draft day, and Sanders’ method has him returning $30 of value. That’s a nice profit on a high value player.

I profiled Gomez’s penchant for seeing first pitch strikes prior to the season. It’s not that pitchers were pouring strikes on empty counts – Gomez is simply very aggressive. He makes his own first pitch strikes.

The trend continued in 2014, but for the first time, opposing pitchers began throwing him a below average rate of pitches in the strike zone. His swing rate remained over 10 percent above league average, while his contact rate held steady at five percent below league average. Anyone who has seen Gomez hack won’t be surprised by these rates – he possesses one of the most violent swings in the sport. Observe.

Trust me, it’s even more violent looking when he whiffs.

Gomez entered the season as a leadoff hitter, but he’s hardly a classic choice at that position in the lineup. Despite his high swing rates, he manages a league average walk rate. In fact, the .284/.356/.477 line he posted last season is exactly what most teams want from a leadoff man. What made him atypical is the number of pitches he saw per plate appearance. According to ESPN, he averaged 3.57 pitches per plate appearances. That puts him one spot ahead of Pablo Sandoval (3.53 P/PA).

The Brewers did move Gomez into the heart of the order, where he was able to rack up RBI. Fantasy owners should prefer Gomez to bat third or fourth. He would trade a few runs and stolen bases for a heaping helping of RBI. I’m somewhat concerned he’ll be back in the leadoff spot if Ryan Braun is truly healthy. Even if that’s the case, it barely affects his overall value – only how he’ll accrue that value.

Over the past two seasons, Gomez has thrived on a high BABIP around .340. His batted ball outcomes don’t scream high BABIP. His line drive rate is league average. Spikes in infield fly and infield hit rates largely offset each other. If the high BABIP is sustainable, it’s because he hits the ball unusually hard. While I don’t have the data to properly examine that hypothesis, I do know his average fly ball distance of 287 feet ranked 84th in the league, right around players like Bryce Harper, Victor Martinez, and John Jaso.

Steamer says to expect more of the same in 2015, except with a regressed BABIP. His projected line of 84/23/72/31/.261 would prove quite valuable to fantasy owners. Owners will need to adjust their expectations based on where he bats in the lineup. A cleanup hitting Gomez might be a 80/23/100/25/.270 hitter. A leadoff hitting Gomez might be a 95/23/55/34/.270 hitter. I do think he’ll slightly outperform Steamer’s estimate in batting average, but not enough to go wild.

One last parting thought: he has platoon splits. Thanks to a BABIP 89 points higher against right-handed pitching, he didn’t exhibit his splits this season. Over his career, he’s destroyed lefties while righties have reduced him to a more typical hitter. Traditional fantasy owners are going to start Gomez against everyone, so the point is almost moot. However, DFS owners will want to keep the splits in mind.