OPL Roster Changes and Why They Matter

Moving your projections that much in this short time frame is no joke. Why is Freemany suddenly breaking out? Half of it might be just getting regular run. He has been in and out of the lineup (and on and off the roster) in the past, but he has emerged as the Guardians starting CF and that is giving him a chance to get everyday PA. Which is maybe enough to let him get comfortable.

OPL managers acted first, you should act next. He should be pretty close to universally rostered, instead of 51.25%.

Jesse Winker – 22 adds (0 drops). Jesse Winker is back! I wrote about Winker less than a week ago and not much has changed since then, so I am not going to subject you to another write-up. Winker appears to be pretty good again and is certainly worth taking a shot on.

Fernando Cruz – 22 adds (0 drops). Cruz struck out a ton of hitters last year while also giving up more walks than you would like, but pitched to a sub-3 FIP. A low LOB% (58.4%) and high BABIP (.317) contributed to an ERA that stayed up over 4, and probably kept his profile down.

This year, he is striking out even more hitters (50% K-rate is just silly). There are still more walks than you would like (12.5%), but as the LOB% and BABIP have corrected (or over-corrected in the case of BABIP), the results are much better and he is more visible. Cruz boosted his Ottoneu profile last year with a low HR/FB rate that kept his HR/9 to 0.82. He has yet to give up a HR this year and his GB% is up, potentially giving him a larger margin for error if his HR/FB rate corrects. He is also giving up more hard contact.

Basically, it is too early to have a clear picture on who or what Fernando Cruz is, but the ability to pile up that many strikeouts makes him immediately interesting Ottoneu. He’s nearly 85% rostered, so it might be too late to act, but it’s worth checking to see if he is still out there. Just watch that hard contact and the HR rate – pitching half his games in Great American Ballpark creates some risk here.

Spencer Turnbull – 20 adds (0 drops). Turnbull is over 92% rostered after being mostly ignored in the off-season so it is no surprise he is on a “most added” list. The interesting thing with Turnbull is that his potential move to the bullpen is perhaps more damaging outside OPL. Turnbull is supposedly the odd-man out in Philly, though he is now expected to make at least one more start (today) before he moves to the pen, if he moves to the pen. But assuming he is used in long-relief, the lack of saves or holds and the risk that his usage is hard to predict will limit his value in most leagues. That’s not true in OPL.

So should you add Turnbull (if you are one of the few leagues he can be added)? Yes, because a move to the pen (plus his injury list) can be mitigated outside OPL – you can cut him if you want. OPL teams are now stuck with him at least until the next snapshot, but you can move on anytime if you so choose.

But as long as Turnbull is starting, keep running him out there. Turnbull has been almost always effective when healthy so as long as he is pitching, there is good reason to think he can continue to succeed. He has a 108 Stuff+ so far, including a 118 on his slider (34% usage) and 131 on his changeup (7% usage). The results are good, the underlying metrics are good, the stuff is good.

Daniel Hudson – 20 adds (0 drops). Hudson is maybe the least interesting of the players on this list, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t worth an add. Hudson has not always thrown many innings – 51.2 in 2021, 24.1 in 2022, and 3.0 last year – but he has put up very high points per IP since coming to the Dodgers. His 12 appearances so far this year put him just outside the top 50 and his six holds have him tied for 6th (with Cruz, among others). He is also tied for 7th in HRA among RP.

A homer-prone reliever getting a ton of holds is going to be a roller coaster for your daily leagues. Pitching for the Dodgers should give him plenty of hold chances and when he avoids the long ball, he’ll get that hold and give you a good score. When he gives up a homer, you not only get that big negative number for the HR, you probably won’t get the hold. But for OPL, that doesn’t matter as much. With best-ball scoring, a high-work-load, high-hold-opportunity RP who sometimes gives up homers will still pile up a decent number of positive points for you, and the negatives don’t matter (except as a lost opportunity).

Hudson is a guy I might add outside OPL, but I am less excited about him than Cruz (oh those strikeouts) and he doesn’t stand out as much, for me, among the other possible FA RP pickups.

Most Dropped

Matt Wallner – 28 drops (1 add). I like Wallner quite a bit in the off-season, but didn’t end up with him because there was always someone more interested. As good as he was last year, a strikeout rate north of 30% is always going to be cause for some concern. Yes, you can survive and perform like that, but it creates a high level of risk and a low floor. Wallner found that floor early this year and the Twins didn’t waste time moving on.

For OPL, this makes Wallner basically unusable. He was a great OPL piece pre-season because of his profile. Days he goes 0-4 with 2K don’t hurt you, and when he hits a HR, it helps a ton. But minor league players are just dead roster spots in OPL.

This is a great example of where OPL managers had to be ruthless and you can maybe learn from that, too. Wallner is still rostered in about 1/3rd of leagues and I am not sure I understand why. He looked terrible in MLB. He has looked back in Triple-A. He doesn’t have a clear path back given the way the Twins are hitting lately. And while he was good last year, he isn’t an elite prospect or anything like that. It’s time to move on.

Robert Stephenson – 23 drops (0 adds). Injured players are dead roster spots in OPL. Injured RP are rarely worth holding through injury. RP set to miss the entire season and possibly some of next with Tommy John surgery are easy cuts in OPL and beyond.

Trevor Story – 19 drops (0 adds). I covered him in a Cold Right Now a couple of weeks ago and I still think there is no reason to roster him.

Spencer Strider – 17 drops (0 adds). This may be a place where you can profit from OPL managers. Strider simply can’t be held by an OPL team. They can try to trade him, they can cut him, but they can’t sit on him and expect to compete. They might be sitting on him for now, but as the competition gets later and the bar teams have to meet gets higher, he will need to go.

But you, non-OPL manager, at the right price, you can hold Strider. Watch for those cuts and maybe even for a second cut to lower the cap penalty. And if/when you can afford him without hurting your chances this year, he could be worth a stash.