October 2018 Starting Pitcher Rankings
Well, this is the earliest I’ve ever done SP rankings so let’s see how this goes! With the regular season wrapped, I figured it was worth putting my initial list together if only to see how it changes over the fall and winter leading into next March’s draft season. Heck, I’ve already done a mock draft hosted by the InThisLeague guys, which you can check out here and I’ll be on the clock for my annual NFBC draft at the BaseballHQ First Pitch Forum in a few short weeks so having an idea of the pitching pool will be very useful.
As usual, I went with tiers, but since we’re not in-season I simply numbered them instead of naming them. I think it really gets tough to differentiate sharply on guys in the middle of the pitcher pool. Trevor Bauer finished 36th on the Player Rater this year while Dinelson Lamet was 83rd, but are they really that far apart in talent? Maybe the point to make is that once you get to about 40 in the rankings, the separation with each ranking is a lot smaller than if you were comparing say #5 to #55.
Anyway, let’s get to the list. Let me know your thoughts in the comments. Was there anyone not in the top 111 that you really think has to be in there?
No Otani?
Let’s get him on an MLB team first… but fair question for sure!
Poor Matt Harvey
I’m not ending his career like some (I just keep remembering the depths Scott Kazmir hit before his rebirth), but I couldn’t rank him just yet
I’d take a shot at Seth Lugo in the tier 7/8 range assuming he’s healthy to start the season. 3.95 FIP/4.18 xFIP and I think there’s a chance he could add more strikeouts with better pitch selection. Always a risk with his UCL but I think there’s some upside there.
Also, not sure if I’d put either of them over the guys you have ranked, but Tomlin and Gibson gave me some solid starts down the stretch, I’d consider drafting either in the late rounds to see if they can carry over their strong finishes.
I think that I would move weaver, lamet and Morton up about 9 spots but I’m a sucker for strikeouts.
I wanted to be cautious with some of my favorite breakouts from this year, specifically Weaver and Castillo. I’ve been hyped on Weaver since seeing him at AFL so I’ll have shares for sure. Castillo is definitely a candidate to get over-hyped (by myself included, tbh), but the talent is so rich
Think Shelby Miller will contribute that much next year? He had TJ on 5/10/17 so I would think his rose-colored glasses, pie-in-the-sky, best-case scenario for a return is May of next year but it’s not at all impossible he misses all of next year.
One name I’d be curious about is Nathan Eovaldi. He had TJ the end of last year and missed all of this year, but the Rays signed him to a 2 year deal and last reports say rehab went well and he’s expected to compete for a rotation spot next year. I’m sure TJ won’t change his oh so straight fastball, but moving from Yankee Stadium to Tampa should help a bunch.
(BTW, the various stats sites around the net don’t show any results for him this year, but apparently he did make it back in time to pitch in Game 4 of Montgomery’s (the Rays’ AA affiliate’s) Championship series. He started and threw 10 pitches. I’m trying to imagine how much that must have sucked for the other players to have played all year, get into a “CHampionship” and then have the crucial Game 4 started by a guy the big team sent down for a 10 pitch rehab start. A guy that won’t even play until next year.)
For some reason I had in mind it was like 2 starts and out for Miller so I was assuming around a month earlier for the surgery without researching to confirm. You’re right, it’ll likely be Memorial Day at the earliest and then another however many starts to ramp up. 92 might be too aggressive, but I’m a Miller honk. As for Eovaldi, he’s a great mention. I can certainly see him in the top 110.
The TJ guys are the most interesting ones to rank. They are a flier either way.
Don’t we expect Shelby Miller to wave politely as he passes en route to the 2019 season? I love lists, though, pretty much no matter what.
I think he’ll return early enough to do something (see other comments about Miller, too… I had his timetabled messed up), but I’m probably a little high on him given that he’s gonna miss at least a couple months.
Also, just for fun:
Teams with 6 guys on the list:
Cardinals
Dodgers
DBacks
Astros
Teams with 5:
Red Sox
Cubs
Indians
Angels
Yankees
Pirates
Rays
Nats
Only 2 teams had 1:
Reds
Rangers
RE: Cards, personally I think Reyes at 64 is a little aggressive and that they will baby him some next year, year following I’m all in
Exactly. He has poor command to start with which should be considered as TJ won’t be helping that out. I would bet against him having any value next year, but he could waste a roster spot.
Peacock seems low, unless you think he’ll be in the bullpen for at least some of next year
Role tempered his rank for sure. As we get more clarity, he’s a candidate to move up if the clarity is that he’s starting.
Verlander had a good season, but it looks like his FIP was the worst of his career. I’d place him ten spots lower.
I agree.
At least
I love Eddy Rodriguez, but that’s an aggressive ranking!
Yu must be sent to Tier 3 ,swithcing with Archer
Anthony DeSclafani certainly had a lost season in 2017, but he apparently looked good throwing 7 innings yesterday in an instructional league game and had a 3.28 ERA in 20 starts in 2016 (and was pretty good in 32 starts in 2015 too). As long as he does not suffer any setbacks, he should warrant inclusion.
Good name for sure. I’ll keep him in mind for the December update as we get more news about his 2018 outlook.
Robby Ray in 3, not 2? Also, Bundy and Gausman seem one tier too high. At least Gausman, for sure. Coming from an O’s fan.
Ray was awesome. No doubt. But most of his career has been underperforming his peripherals. In 2017 he overperformed. There’s not a whole lot different from 2015-2017 in what he’s thrown, so it’s likely that 2018 is somewhere in the middle. Lots of Ks, but a few more walks and HRs that you really want in an almost-elite pitcher. That’s Tier 3
He has better peripherals than Verlander and Darvish. And if you want to talk durability then bump Syndergaard and Strasburg down one tier as well.
I think the advanced metrics just fail on Ray. Have you seen him pitch much? He always looks tough. He really was one of the better arms in baseball this year. I get that he has flaws, but everyone does.
Yeah I’d put Ray above Nola, Archer, and Darvish in the 2 tier. Best K rate, NL, + should get plenty of W next yr
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Not trying to go argue, but why Kyle Hendricks so low? Personally, I feel as if he has proven himself at every stage and could easily be top 20. Thoughts?
He’s basically Stroman with injury concerns and in the easier league (meaning his numbers are less impressive).
Fulmer at 39? Injury related?
Ya, I can’t just completely ignore the injury. It shouldn’t cause any issues in terms of his readiness for 2018 and we saw deGrom return from it just fine, but I wanted to be cautious. Plus, while I am a huge Fulmer backer and believe he can add Ks as he matures, he still has to do it. His potential alone won’t win fantasy lgs.
Lance McCullers in Tier 4 hurts me a lil.. I know he was hurt this year, but looked great beforehand. I can only assume he’s gonna be higher than the 34th SP off the board
I was heavy on the McCullers hype train this year and I’m not jumping off, but we have to acknowledge that he’s reached just 22 starts as a peak in the majors. Still just 24 and the talent is immense, but I’m putting him down for 120-140 IP max until we see otherwise.
That said, I’ve always made clear that I will invest in talent when health is the only drawback because the healthy season – if it ever comes – will be a game-changer. Obviously that’s been the principle behind Stanton as a 2nd-3rd rounder forever and we finally saw it pay off this year.
Obviously, you’re not concerned about Syndergaard’s injury to put him sixth.
After all the love you’ve given Castillo and Weaver, I expected them to be a tier higher.
I’m definitely a scorned former owner, but Garrett Richards at 33/top of tier 4 is insane with his injury history. He’s barely pitched in two years; how can you trust him as a SP3? I understand some guys like Paxton and Hill will outproduce their draft value even in limited IP, but Richards could make just a start or two before he (again) flirts with TJ rumors for four months.
Man, it’s good to see Alex Reyes pop up on rankings again. If it wasn’t for Luis Castillo I never would have been able to fill the Reyes-sized hole in my heart!
Really hope Reyes returns strong because he’s got special talent
He’s got a 0 in the sexiness level, but Brandon McCarthy probably beats out anyone in tier 8 at the very least. He was having a very solid season for the Dodgers until his injury in July that took him out for a month. I figure if Ryu is in tier #6 even after his up and down year, McCarthy should be on the list above somewhere.
How did Tyler Glasnow and his 7+ ERA end up on here? Guy just implodes every time the lineup card says MLB rather than AAA.
Just kinda stowing him there until I can deep-dive. I’m also not really sold, but wanted to stave off a host of “where’s Glasnow?”. I will adjust my rank after researching him this winter and see how I feel
Just speculating but I think Glasnow has a “plane problem” i.e. with his height and release he’s getting more downward plane than umps are used to and he’s not getting *any* close calls whatsoever. From there, he panics and throws his otherwise straight fastball as a get me over in between walking like 7 per 9 or so. He’s not getting swing and miss because he’s not throwing enough strikes. *Maybe* he’d fare a little better as a reliever but the clock is definitely ticking.
Verlander is way to highly ranked IMO. He’s 34 and just posted a 3.84 FIP and 4.17 xFIP
In 206 IP with a 2.73 ERA over his last 23 starts. Also a 3.84 ERA would’ve been good for 26th this year and 4.17 would’ve been 36th. What did you see over the 2nd half (or final 23 starts) that has you concerned about him?
The answer is nothing. I’m good with Verlander’s spot.
I love that the Astros have so many pitchers on this list, but I doubt Musgrove moves back into the rotation. He can easily be replaced by Collin McHugh though.
Great list, I’d probably slide Gerrit Cole, Stroman and Cueto a little lower, and find a hole somewhere in the top 100 for McHugh.
Debated Musgrove v. McHugh and went with the young buck over the staid, boring vet in this case
How about Trevor Williams, PIT and Michael Montgomery if he becomes a Starter
10.2 k/9 w/3.01 FIP in 175 IPs = #75? (Jimbo Nelson)
No deal howie!
It’s not the skills, it’s the health. Very nervous about the injury so I went conservative at 70. Healthy Nelson is at least 30 spots higher.
Got it, and was not aware that he was going to miss that much of 2018 with the injury. Carry on good sir. Also, I appreciate this list coming out right after the season’s end.
He’s projected to miss a “chunk” of 2018.
Seems a little high for Danny Duffy, I thought he under-performed this year. Any specific reason for the optimism?
His velocity was down as well. I think there are many reasons to avoid him next year.
Random idea inspired by this ranking – starter/bullpen usage has been anecdotally changing over the last few years and many leagues rely on W (or even better, QS, which hopefully correlates well with W) which are key in assessing fantasy value. My thought — do some starting pitchers retain the ability to notch a QS better than others? I did some quick data checks on total QS in the NL over the last 8 years. It seems we dropped from a pretty steady 53% QS ratio (QS/games played) in the early 2010s to a peak of 57% in 2014 to a steadily dropping number (Home run era, pitch counts, multi-inning bullpen roles) that was down to 44% last year. For veteran guys, might be a useful way to differentiate within tiers for those that have done better than average in retaining the ability to notch QS vs. the league average over the past 4 years. i.e. As the league changes, who still has the strike %/tools/manager trust, etc. to go deeper into games and keep the ER count down?
I play in a W/QS league and tried to target guys with managers that would leave them in longer in the draft last year. My top three pitchers were Verlander, DeGrom, and C. Mart, none of whom have/had the most progressive managers.
Tanaka still had his blowups late in the year, but he was 3rd in xFIP and SIERA in the 2nd half (13th and 12th on the year), and he got his era to around 3.50 from June 23rd onward. He was so hot and cold, but you could see with his 15 strikeout game in the last game of the regular season against the jays, and in game 3 of the ALDS, just how dominant he can be. I think he bounces back next year and could be top 10.
Another thing about Tanaka is he’s younger than I suspect people think he is, because he was already a star in Japan and I think he was younger when he got here than people realize. He’s the same age as Paxton (older by 6 days, 29 next month). He’s a month or so younger than Chris Archer and Keuchel. He’s an injury risk, and a durability risk. But he had the highest swinging strike rate of his career, lowest contact rates outside and inside the zone and the highest swing percentage despite easily the lowest zone % of his career. The ballpark scares you, the home run environment scares you, but especially because i think he’ll go later due to the home run issue he should be a draft day bargain.
I’m kind of surprised that you have Godley (3.37/3.41/3.32, 9.58 K/9, 3.08 BB/9, 55.3% GB) and Gio in the same tier (2.96/3.93/4.24, 8.42 K/9, 3.54 BB/9 45.8% GB) since Godley’s underlying numbers have been much better. Is it the IP and W difference? Because in 2016, Godley pitched a total of 156.2 IP, this year it was 183, which included starting the year in AAA, and I’m not sure that we should have expected more than that given how pitchers tend to be paced on their IP’s.
It just seems like Godley has better underlying stats to go with being give years younger than Gio, which should yield a better projection.
Nice to see a bigger Tier 1 this year. The last couple seasons, it’s felt like Kershaw was in a tier of his own, then maybe three guys in the next tier before getting to the meaty back-end SP1’s.
I liked it better when we had a true HOF talent throwing every 5 days, mowing down hitters like nobody else. It is not that anyone caught him, but that he moved back tot he pack.
Leake>King Felix? Excuse me while I go sob in a corner. #longlivetheking
Verlander outstandingly high.
I haven’t looked at my rankings yet, but gosh Chris Archer feels high. Ditto Gerrit Cole.
Tier 3 seems high for a guy who posted 11.15 k/9 with a 3.40 FIP over 200 innings?
Yes, I still have to stomach the WHIP. To be honest, I see zero difference between he and Samardzija (curveball Samardzija). My negative Archer bias shows here but I was nitpicking because I’d take the next few guys over him.
Pretty sure Alex Reyes will prove to be considerably higher than a tier 5 pitcher.
I doubt that. You will be lucky if you get half a season of starts out if him. That is assuming health, which you really shouldn’t.
Clevinger break-out must have been a mirage or he is very underrated here.
Stroman at 20 is too high…way outperformed his peripherals and his strikeout rate isn’t ideal.
Love the lists, any chance of one that is more keeper/dynasty focused in the coming winter months?
Curious that you have Salazar over Gausman.. There have been a lot of supportive articles for Gausman’s second half and Salazar has a checkered injury history. I kbow it’s only 3 spots but are you not fully on board with Gausman’s second half?