November ADP Market Report: Starting Pitchers

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.


Top 100 Players Rising
Framber Valdez (+11.18)- Valdez jumped up into the top 100 in ADP during November and it was well deserved. He threw 70.2 innings with over a strikeout an inning, a 3.57 ERA, and a 1.12 WHIP. HE then doubled down in the postseason, throwing another 24 innings with a 1.88 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP and 24 strikeouts. He allows a ton of hard contact, but very little of it is in air. There is some concern about what his inning totals may be in 2021, but considering he threw 94.2 innings between the regular and postseason, there is no reason to think he can’t be a guy that throws 150+. Right now he is a top 25 pitcher and I am here for it.

 

Top 100 Players Falling
Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 (-12.82)- Ryu is perpetually underrated. He has not had an ERA of 3 since 2017 and he has never had an ERA above 3.77 except in 2016 when he only pitched 4.2 innings. His WHIPs are excellent as well and he tends to strikeout a batter per inning throughout his career. So, why is he dropping? There is the rational fear that he won’t pitch a ton of innings. Since coming into the league in 2013, Ryu has never topped 200 innings and he has only topped 150 innings three times. There is some risk to taking Ryu, but if paired with a workhorse, he offers a ton of upside.

 

Top 200 Players Rising
None

 

Top 200 Players Falling
Sixto Sanchez (-23.86)- Sanchez was phenomenal in his Major League debut for the Marlins, posting a 3.46 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP with 33 strikeouts in 39 innings pitched. Sanchez has a good fastball with an elite change that he uses to fool batters. He is dropping in drafts largely because the helium was a bit too high, but now he seems to be in a pretty decent spot as the 38th starter off the board. He even represents some value if you buy the initial breakout. That being said, Sanchez had a pretty checkered injury history in the minors which hurt his prospect stock prior to making his MLB debut. Definitely could be a nice SP3 if you get one or two studs to anchor your rotation.

Marco Gonzales (-20.16)- Gonzales is not the sexiest pitcher, but I think most would be surprised that his ERA has been 3.85 and his WHIP has been 1.22 since 2018. He isn’t going to strike a lot of guys out, but he suppresses hard contact and allows his defense behind him to pick him up. I wish we were still getting a huge discount on him, but he will be slept on once again.

Triston McKenzie (-28.16)- I love the skills that McKenzie showed, but talent has never been the issue with him. McKenzie has battled to stay healthy and before making his Major League debut in 2020, he hadn’t pitched since 2018. His slight frame and previous injury history points to higher risk in predicting future injury and the likelihood that Cleveland may limit his innings to protect him. The price isn’t bad, but like Sixto Sanchez, you should make sure you have anchors in the rotation before using a pick on him.

 

Top 300 Players Rising
Elieser Hernandez (+25.73)- Hernandez is becoming a trendy sleeper which accounts for his rise in the ADP. He is interesting, but I am not buying in quite yet. Hernandez average exit velocity was 91.8 which is in the third percentile of the league. He allows a lot of hard contact and too many fly balls for a guy that allows that high of an average exit velocity. The biggest issue for me is the fact that he is really a two pitch guy. He only threw 27 changeups in 2020 and while the slider is great, unless he can improve the changeup usage or add a different third pitch, he has reliever written all over him.

Masahiro Tanaka (+39.09)- At this point in his career, Tanaka is who is, which is a perfectly fine innings eater that gets hurt by the long ball. That being said, if he does not return to the Yankees and moves to a more homer friendly park, he could be a steal at 275.

Tarik Skubal (+21.52)- It was a rough debut for the rookie pitcher, but if you stopped paying attention to Detroit down the stretch, you might have missed some of Skubal’s best work. Over his last three starts, Skubal threw 14.2 innings, striking out 20 with only three walks and six earned runs which was good for a 3.68 ERA and a .89 WHIP. It was a reflection of better pitch mix as he tends to rely on his fastball too much. His upside is apparent with his strikeouts, but the downside is there as well with a ton of fly balls and hard contact. He is just inside the top 300, so there is a ton of profit potential, but he also could be a guy you end up dropping in June.

 

Top 300 Players Falling
Chris Sale (-27.09)- It is not surprising to see Sale dropping in drafts after missing the entire with Tommy John surgery. Sale is not expected to be ready to start the season and it seems unlikely he is pitching in the Majors until sometime mid-summer.

Shohei Ohtani (-31.08)- Ohtani is coming off an extremely disappointing season in which he only threw 1.2 innings as a pitcher and hit .190/.291/.366 with seven home runs and seven stolen bases. The question becomes, will he ever be the two-staud we thought we were getting when he came over from Japan? You almost wish the Angels would just make him a hitter, because he would likely have a ton of upside with just the bat. Part of the struggles at the plate was just bad luck. He sported a .229 BABIP after two straight years of his BABIP being .350. He likely would have worked his way out of it and delivered a much better average. In daily moves league, he is still insanely valuable if he is pitching and hitting even just near the level he is capable of, but I fear it may never come together. Even in NFBC or weekly formats, his price is just too good to pass up especially when he drops outside of the top 300.

Corey Kluber (-30.55)- Kluber threw just one inning in the Majors in 2020 after missing most of 2019 with injury. The Rangers decided to not pick up his option which is troublesome as well. That being said, the price is great and he is only two years removed from being one of the best pitchers in baseball year in and year out. He is supposedly healthy and is going to pitch for teams next month. Once he signs, his price will go up, so now is the time to take the gamble.

Nathan Eovaldi (-19.98)- Eovaldi is coming off of a great season, where he threw 48.1 innings with over a strike out an inning, a 3.72 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. His SIERA, FIP and xFIP are pretty in line with his ERA and he had a nice growth in his swinging strike rate, o-swing, and ground ball rate have taken a nice upswing. So, why is he dropping? I think there are legitimate concerts about his workload. He has not thrown more than 125 innings in a season since 2015 and he has had consistency issues throughout his career. That being said, the price is fine and he does have upside in his profile. He is worth the dart throw late.

November ADP Market Report: Pitchers
11/1/2020-11/30/2020 Player Team 10/1/2020-10/31/2020 Change
7.05 Gerrit Cole NYY 6 -1.05
8.5 Shane Bieber CLE 9 0.5
9.23 Jacob deGrom NYM 9.5 0.27
14.82 Trevor Bauer CIN 16 1.18
18.64 Yu Darvish CHC 17.5 -1.14
19.32 Walker Buehler LAD 18.75 -0.57
20.5 Lucas Giolito CWS 20.75 0.25
24.41 Aaron Nola PHI 24.5 0.09
28.73 Max Scherzer WAS 29.75 1.02
30.55 Jack Flaherty STL 30.5 -0.05
30.77 Clayton Kershaw LAD 28.75 -2.02
31.23 Luis Castillo CIN 28 -3.23
38.82 Zac Gallen ARZ 43.75 4.93
40.36 Brandon Woodruff MLW 38.25 -2.11
46.59 Kenta Maeda MIN 43.25 -3.34
51.14 Tyler Glasnow TB 43.25 -7.89
52.09 Blake Snell TB 56.25 4.16
54.73 Max Fried ATL 61.25 6.52
59.05 Corbin Burnes MLW 60.75 1.7
60.09 Zach Plesac CLE 56.75 -3.34
60.5 Josh Hader MLW 68.5 8
62.32 Lance Lynn TEX 60.25 -2.07
62.59 Sonny Gray CIN 60.75 -1.84
63.77 Dinelson Lamet SD 63.5 -0.27
68.91 Liam Hendriks OAK 71.5 2.59
75.32 Hyun Jin Ryu TOR 62.5 -12.82
78.5 Carlos Carrasco CLE 77.75 -0.75
79.82 Stephen Strasburg WAS 71.5 -8.32
81.82 Edwin Diaz NYM 92 10.18
85.32 Ian Anderson ATL 90 4.68
85.55 Aroldis Chapman NYY 92.25 6.7
87.82 Zack Wheeler PHI 81.75 -6.07
88.32 Framber Valdez HOU 99.5 11.18
91.45 Jose Berrios MIN 87 -4.45
93.86 Kyle Hendricks CHC 93 -0.86
99.55 Jesus Luzardo OAK 103.25 3.7
101.18 Julio Urias LAD 98.5 -2.68
103.77 Dylan Bundy LAA 89.5 -14.27
109.36 Chris Paddack SD 102.75 -6.61
111.91 Raisel Iglesias CIN 115.75 3.84
112.41 Zack Greinke HOU 96.75 -15.66
115 James Karinchak CLE 126.5 11.5
115.36 Sixto Sanchez MIA 91.5 -23.86
115.41 Brad Hand CLE 111.5 -3.91
120.05 Pablo Lopez MIA 109 -11.05
128.95 Lance McCullers Jr. HOU 137.5 8.55
133.91 Ryan Pressly HOU 136.5 2.59
134.32 Sandy Alcantara MIA 117 -17.32
135.27 Alex Colome CWS 136.75 1.48
137.36 Kenley Jansen LAD 146 8.64
144.82 Taylor Rogers MIN 159.5 14.68
147.14 David Price LAD 145.75 -1.39
147.86 Kevin Gausman SF 157.25 9.39
148.5 Devin Williams MLW 144.25 -4.25
148.95 Frankie Montas OAK 140.25 -8.7
149.05 Nick Anderson TB 156.25 7.2
151.41 Joe Musgrove PIT 152.25 0.84
152.41 Marco Gonzales SEA 132.25 -20.16
153.18 Triston McKenzie CLE 125 -28.18
154.41 Patrick Corbin WAS 161.25 6.84
156.09 Dustin May LAD 155.5 -0.59
156.77 Trevor Rosenthal SD 178 21.23
158.41 Charlie Morton ATL 166 7.59
168.55 Mike Soroka ATL 156 -12.55
172.64 Mike Clevinger SD 72.75 -99.89
182.5 Rafael Montero TEX 209.25 26.75
184.95 Chris Bassitt OAK 174 -10.95
186.14 Kirby Yates SD 215.75 29.61
186.55 Cristian Javier HOU 185.5 -1.05
186.82 Tyler Mahle CIN 174 -12.82
190.27 Aaron Civale CLE 184.5 -5.77
191.45 German Marquez COL 179 -12.45
194.82 Dallas Keuchel CWS 209.75 14.93
202.68 Tony Gonsolin LAD 197.5 -5.18
207 Jose Urquidy HOU 210 3
209.64 Andrew Heaney LAA 211.25 1.61
212.59 Brady Singer KC 219.5 6.91
213.77 Zach Eflin PHI 214.5 0.73
214.86 Jordan Romano TOR 220.75 5.89
215.86 Zach Davies SD 207.75 -8.11
228.36 Richard Rodriguez PIT 223.25 -5.11
231 Michael Pineda MIN 225 -6
231.09 Chris Sale BOS 204 -27.09
231.32 Mike Mayers LAA 239.75 8.43
233.27 Craig Kimbrel CHC 295 61.73
234.55 Matt Barnes BOS 220.75 -13.8
237 Nate Pearson TOR 242 5
237.18 MacKenzie Gore SD 239.75 2.57
238.05 Shohei Ohtani LAA 206.25 -31.8
238.91 Jordan Montgomery NYY 226.5 -12.41
239.05 Corey Kluber TEX 208.5 -30.55
239.32 Jameson Taillon PIT 229.25 -10.07
240.27 Elieser Hernandez MIA 266 25.73
242.95 John Means BAL 233.5 -9.45
244.27 Mark Melancon ATL 264.5 20.23
246.05 Michael Kopech CWS 244.75 -1.3
249.82 Marcus Stroman NYM 251.75 1.93
252.45 Giovanny Gallegos STL 294 41.55
253.32 Stefan Crichton ARZ 274.75 21.43
255.05 James Paxton NYY 262.5 7.45
256.91 Will Smith ATL 241.5 -15.41
257.82 Drew Smyly ATL 243 -14.82
258.23 Nathan Eovaldi BOS 238.25 -19.98
259.41 Kwang Hyun Kim 김광현 STL 272 12.59
260.55 Eduardo Rodriguez BOS 271 10.45
264.91 Sean Manaea OAK 270.5 5.59
269.86 Drew Pomeranz SD 297 27.14
273 Jordan Hicks STL 282.75 9.75
274.23 Ryan Yarbrough TB 266.5 -7.73
275.41 Masahiro Tanaka NYY 314.5 39.09
279.36 Brad Keller KC 277.25 -2.11
282.68 Taijuan Walker TOR 271.25 -11.43
289.82 Brandon Kintzler MIA 226.5 -63.32
291.95 Diego Castillo TB 303.75 11.8
293.55 Mitch Keller PIT 303.5 9.95
294.27 Dane Dunning CWS 285.25 -9.02
295.23 Tarik Skubal DET 316.75 21.52
301.36 Justus Sheffield SEA 315.25 13.89
301.59 Caleb Smith ARZ 293.5 -8.09
304.36 Griffin Canning LAA 323.25 18.89
305.41 Daniel Hudson WAS 262.75 -42.66
308.82 Domingo German NYY 291.25 -17.57
309.18 Deivi Garcia NYY 302 -7.18
316.09 Spencer Turnbull DET 322.25 6.16
322.68 Tanner Rainey WAS 322.5 -0.18
325.05 Matthew Boyd DET 316.75 -8.3
327.32 Daniel Bard COL 310.25 -17.07
329.64 Casey Mize DET 321.75 -7.89
333.86 Hector Neris PHI 312.5 -21.36
334.64 Madison Bumgarner ARZ 331.25 -3.39
335.14 Seth Lugo NYM 284.75 -50.39
335.18 Noah Syndergaard NYM 326.5 -8.68
338.32 Jake Odorizzi MIN 307.5 -30.82
338.64 Alex Reyes STL 356 17.36
340.32 Rafael Dolis TOR 323 -17.32
342.95 Robbie Ray TOR 324 -18.95
348.77 Zack Britton NYY 379.25 30.48
350.45 David Peterson NYM 349 -1.45
352.27 Freddy Peralta MLW 357.5 5.23
353.59 Luis Severino NYY 252.75 -100.84
353.59 Aaron Bummer CWS 363.25 9.66
356.68 Dylan Cease CWS 347 -9.68
359 Mike Minor OAK 375 16
360.23 Jeremy Jeffress CHC 329 -31.23
361.27 Spencer Howard PHI 324.75 -36.52
363.95 Adbert Alzolay CHC 329.75 -34.2
368.45 Brusdar Graterol LAD 372 3.55
371.91 Josh Lindblom MLW 325 -46.91
377.18 Yusei Kikuchi SEA 348 -29.18
378.23 Tejay Antone CIN 325 -53.23
386.73 Cal Quantrill CLE 403.25 16.52
390.32 Garrett Crochet CWS 377.75 -12.57
390.45 Tanner Houck BOS 390.25 -0.2
393.55 Greg Holland KC 351 -42.55
397.27 Hunter Harvey BAL 409.75 12.48
397.68 Emmanuel Clase CLE 413.5 15.82
400.36 Kris Bubic KC 430.25 29.89
404.86 Blake Treinen LAD 384.25 -20.61
408.09 Adam Wainwright STL 379 -29.09
409.14 Josh Staumont KC 422.75 13.61
412.68 Carlos Martinez STL 392 -20.68
413.95 Yimi Garcia MIA 425.5 11.55
414.64 A.J. Puk OAK 459.5 44.86
419.82 Alec Mills CHC 443 23.18
421.36 Daniel Ponce de Leon STL 398.25 -23.11
423.95 Luke Weaver ARZ 432.75 8.8
426.77 Garrett Richards SD 417 -9.77
426.82 Clarke Schmidt NYY 397.5 -29.32
447.41 Scott Barlow KC 450.75 3.34
448.32 J.A. Happ NYY 397.25 -51.07
449.41 Matt Manning DET 410.25 -39.16
449.86 Miles Mikolas STL 426.75 -23.11
451.09 Luis Patino SD 407.75 -43.34
456 Adrian Houser MLW 441 -15
456.09 Adrian Morejon SD 425.5 -30.59
458.27 Matt Shoemaker TOR 512.5 54.23
458.5 Roberto Osuna HOU 459 0.5
459.95 Rich Hill MIN 504.5 44.55
461.82 Pete Fairbanks TB 447.75 -14.07
464.36 Archie Bradley CIN 474.5 10.14
466.09 Bryan Garcia DET 378 -88.09
469.18 Austin Gomber STL 460.75 -8.43
469.41 Logan Gilbert SEA 429.75 -39.66
471.18 Ross Stripling TOR 436.5 -34.68
474.91 Justin Dunn SEA 497.25 22.34
476.86 Trevor May MIN 536.75 59.89
481.86 Bryse Wilson ATL 487.5 5.64
482.64 Jonathan Hernandez TEX 426.75 -55.89
482.95 Kyle Wright ATL 452.75 -30.2
483.36 Chris Martin ATL 513.5 30.14
483.59 Emilio Pagan SD 453.25 -30.34
486.91 Jose Quintana CHC 465 -21.91
490.82 Nick Pivetta BOS 426.5 -64.32
496 Danny Duffy KC 473.25 -22.75
497.27 Merrill Kelly ARZ 472.25 -25.02
498.36 Gregory Soto DET 514.25 15.89
499.73 Antonio Senzatela COL 444.5 -55.23
501.59 Dean Kremer BAL 458.75 -42.84
503.82 Trevor Rogers MIA 517.75 13.93
504.68 Jose Leclerc TEX 498.5 -6.18
512.18 Michael Lorenzen CIN 538.75 26.57
519 JT Brubaker PIT 463.75 -55.25
522.86 Jon Gray COL 497 -25.86
526.23 Jake Diekman OAK 546.5 20.27
528.32 Steven Brault PIT 507.5 -20.82
531.95 Randy Dobnak MIN 577.5 45.55
533 Tyler Duffey MIN 513.25 -19.75
534.27 Lucas Sims CIN 427.75 -106.52
536.09 Forrest Whitley HOU 527 -9.09
544.91 Brent Honeywell Jr. TB 614.25 69.34
545.05 Josh Fleming TB 524.5 -20.55
546.5 Jesse Hahn KC 562.25 15.75
548.05 Chris Archer PIT 536.75 -11.3
553.18 Edward Cabrera MIA 587.75 34.57
553.73 Johnny Cueto SF 524.75 -28.98
553.77 Brendan McKay TB 562 8.23
554.77 Kyle Gibson TEX 540.75 -14.02
558.59 Kyle Freeland COL 568.75 10.16
559.5 Anthony Bass TOR 601.5 42
559.64 A.J. Minter ATL 547 -12.64
565.14 Anthony DeSclafani CIN 569.75 4.61
569.73 Chad Green NYY 532.25 -37.48
570.77 Darwinzon Hernandez BOS 498.25 -72.52
571.36 Jaime Barria LAA 593.25 21.89
576.09 Corbin Martin ARZ 612.25 36.16
576.77 Tom Hatch TOR 534.75 -42.02
577.5 Andrew Miller STL 580 2.5
578 Rowan Wick CHC 561.5 -16.5
579.05 Keegan Akin BAL 610.75 31.7
579.77 Matt Foster CWS 566.75 -13.02
589.5 Brent Suter MLW 604.75 15.25
591.09 Joe Jimenez DET 524.75 -66.34
592.59 Codi Heuer CWS 585.25 -7.34
593.23 Brandon Workman PHI 624.75 31.52
593.59 Luis Garcia HOU 584 -9.59
593.95 Kendall Graveman SEA 602 8.05
596.09 Jonathan Loaisiga NYY 667.5 71.41
596.18 Jon Lester CHC 643.5 47.32
596.91 Daulton Jefferies OAK 523 -73.91
598.41 Austin Adams SD 626.25 27.84
598.5 Austin Voth WAS 537.25 -61.25
599.86 Alex Wood LAD 596.25 -3.61
600 Nick Wittgren CLE 555.25 -44.75
602.18 Reyes Moronta SF 596.25 -5.93
602.27 Daniel Lynch KC 650.5 48.23
602.41 J.B. Wendelken OAK 643.5 41.09
603.5 Patrick Sandoval LAA 628.75 25.25
604.86 Tyler Rogers SF 601 -3.86
606.77 Shane Greene ATL 556.5 -50.27
610.55 Andres Munoz SEA 693.5 82.95
611.91 Felix Pena LAA 576.25 -35.66
613 Vince Velasquez PHI 641.75 28.75
615.77 Tomoyuki Sugano FA NA NA
619.05 Logan Webb SF 594 -25.05
619.86 Josiah Gray LAD 611.5 -8.36
621.18 Shane McClanahan TB 634.5 13.32
621.36 Rick Porcello NYM 658.5 37.14
621.82 Evan Marshall CWS 589 -32.82
622 Chad Kuhl PIT 611.25 -10.75
623.55 Tanner Scott BAL 583 -40.55
626.55 Corey Knebel MLW 646.25 19.7
627.95 Dakota Hudson STL 664.5 36.55
631 Cole Hamels ATL 688.75 57.75
632.55 Mike Fiers OAK 663.25 30.7
636.05 Steven Matz NYM 615 -21.05
641.09 Daniel Norris DET 564 -77.09
645.32 Jackson Kowar KC 634.75 -10.57
645.86 Ryan Helsley STL 520.75 -125.11
649.09 Genesis Cabrera STL 632.75 -16.34
650.09 Mychal Givens COL 682.75 32.66
650.68 Martin Perez BOS 662.5 11.82
655 Kohei Arihara FA NA NA
655.68 Alex Cobb BAL 657.75 2.07
657.18 Amir Garrett CIN 572.25 -84.93
658.05 Joey Lucchesi SD 686.5 28.45
661.55 Yohan Ramirez SEA 575 -86.55
664.27 Reynaldo Lopez CWS 635 -29.27
664.77 Tyler Matzek ATL 627 -37.77
665.36 Ty Buttrey LAA 639.75 -25.61
671.41 Carlos Rodon CWS 681.75 10.34
672.27 Keone Kela PIT 629.25 -43.02
673.41 Yusmeiro Petit OAK 672.75 -0.66
676.5 Matt Strahm SD 736.75 60.25
678.73 Tony Watson SF 603.75 -74.98
679.45 Tyler Chatwood CHC 730 50.55
679.82 Nick Lodolo CIN 733.75 53.93
680.86 Brett Anderson MLW 616 -64.86
684 Jose Alvarado TB 691 7
684.14 Joely Rodriguez TEX 633.25 -50.89
685.09 Kyle Zimmer KC 681.25 -3.84
687.73 Enoli Paredes HOU 697 9.27
689.64 Kyle Cody TEX 635 -54.64
693.23 Jordan Balazovic MIN 680 -13.23
694.05 Jake Arrieta PHI 633 -61.05
696.14 Hansel Robles LAA 631.75 -64.39
696.64 Dan Straily BAL NA NA
696.68 Homer Bailey MIN 712 15.32
698.86 Michael Fulmer DET 707 8.14
699.55 Matt Wisler MIN 720.75 21.2
700.73 Victor Gonzalez LAD 648.5 -52.23
703.91 Demarcus Evans TEX 668.25 -35.66
704.59 Connor Brogdon PHI 649.75 -54.84
705.95 Will Harris WAS 677.75 -28.2
709.91 Yonny Chirinos TB 725.75 15.84
710 Sergio Romo MIN 693 -17
710.27 Brailyn Marquez CHC 719 8.73
711.5 Wade Miley CIN 700.75 -10.75
712.32 John Gant STL 668.5 -43.82
713 Mike Foltynewicz ATL 736.5 23.5
715.55 Cesar Valdez BAL 617.5 -98.05
716.27 Chase Anderson TOR 678 -38.27
716.68 Adam Plutko CLE 711.25 -5.43
718.18 Lou Trivino OAK 675 -43.18
718.36 Bryan Abreu HOU 723 4.64
719.23 Matt Liberatore STL NA NA
719.73 Taylor Clarke ARZ 703 -16.73
719.86 Nick Margevicius SEA 697.25 -22.61
720.64 Scott Oberg COL 716.75 -3.89
721.27 Kyle Crick PIT 651.5 -69.77
722.18 Tyler Anderson SF 720.5 -1.68
723.18 Nick Tropeano NYM 708.5 -14.68
723.73 Joe Ross WAS 718.25 -5.48
723.77 Joe Ryan TB 713.75 -10.02
724.14 Jose Cisnero DET 736.5 12.36
724.18 Johan Oviedo STL NA NA
725.14 Ryan Castellani COL 662.75 -62.39
725.27 Robert Stephenson COL NA NA
726.64 John Curtiss TB 645.5 -81.14
726.73 Anthony Kay TOR 716.5 -10.23
727.23 Phil Maton CLE NA NA
727.27 Devin Smeltzer MIN NA NA
727.59 Josh James HOU 739.5 11.91
728.41 Shane Baz TB 718.75 -9.66
728.73 Tyler Beede SF NA NA
728.86 Pedro Baez LAD 708 -20.86
728.86 Braxton Garrett MIA 745 16.14
729.55 Cory Abbott CHC 691 -38.55
729.55 Touki Toussaint ATL 740 10.45
730.68 Jeff Hoffman CIN NA NA
731.05 Kevin Ginkel ARZ 707.5 -23.55
733.09 Drew Rasmussen MLW 740 6.91
733.64 Yoshihisa Hirano SEA 741 7.36
733.82 Trevor Williams PIT 709.75 -24.07
735.14 Jordan Weems OAK NA NA
735.23 James Kaprielian OAK NA NA
735.41 Jhoan Duran MIN 723.5 -11.91
736.05 Jeff Samardzija SF NA NA
736.64 Matt Andriese LAA 705 -31.64
736.64 Dillon Tate BAL 725 -11.64
736.68 Anibal Sanchez WAS NA NA
736.73 Cole Sulser BAL NA NA
736.91 Dellin Betances NYM 676 -60.91
737.05 Trevor Cahill SF NA NA
737.41 Jairo Diaz COL NA NA
737.59 Cade Cavalli WAS 743 5.41
737.64 Blake Cederlind PIT 747 9.36
738.05 Kolby Allard TEX 749.25 11.2
738.09 Erick Fedde WAS NA NA
738.32 Reid Detmers LAA NA NA
738.45 Keynan Middleton LAA 738.75 0.3
738.64 Adam Ottavino NYY 732.75 -5.89
739.05 Asa Lacy KC NA NA
739.18 Ryan Brasier BOS 708.75 -30.43
739.23 Cam Bedrosian LAA NA NA
739.5 Michael King NYY NA NA
739.86 Sean Doolittle WAS 732.25 -7.61
740.64 Bryan Mata BOS NA NA
740.68 Grayson Rodriguez BAL NA NA
740.77 Hunter Greene CIN NA NA
740.91 Blake Taylor HOU 682.75 -58.16
741.09 Yency Almonte COL NA NA
741.18 Erik Swanson SEA NA NA
741.23 Jake McGee LAD 748 6.77
741.55 Logan Allen CLE 732.75 -8.8
742.05 Tanner Roark TOR NA NA
742.05 Thomas Szapucki NYM NA NA
742.09 Tyler Alexander DET NA NA
742.18 Adam Kolarek LAD NA NA
742.45 Joakim Soria OAK 689.75 -52.7
742.55 Jon Duplantier ARZ NA NA
743.05 Carlos Hernandez KC NA NA
743.14 Ian Kennedy KC NA NA
743.23 Junior Guerra ARZ NA NA
743.27 Trevor Richards TB NA NA
743.41 Zack Burdi CWS NA NA
743.55 Pierce Johnson SD NA NA
743.68 Riley Smith ARZ 728.5 -15.18
743.82 George Kirby SEA NA NA
743.86 Tyler Ivey HOU NA NA
744.23 Jorge Alcala MIN 704.75 -39.48
744.32 Miguel Castro NYM NA NA
744.36 Buck Farmer DET NA NA
744.68 Kyle Nelson CLE NA NA
745 Tommy Doyle COL 748.75 3.75
745.23 Luis Perdomo SD NA NA
745.32 Alex Young ARZ 700.5 -44.82
745.36 Josh Tomlin ATL NA NA
745.41 Michael Wacha NYM NA NA
745.5 Chris Stratton PIT NA NA
745.5 Tommy Milone ATL NA NA
745.55 Jake Woodford STL NA NA
745.68 Ethan Small MLW NA NA
745.73 Brad Peacock HOU 745.25 -0.48
745.77 Anthony Misiewicz SEA NA NA
745.82 Tyler Zuber KC NA NA
746.14 Hyeon-jong Yang FA NA NA
746.36 Cody Stashak MIN NA NA
746.45 Chris Rodriguez LAA NA NA
746.55 Brandon Bielak HOU NA NA
746.64 Jakob Junis KC NA NA
746.86 Alex Faedo DET NA NA
746.86 Ryan Weathers SD NA NA
746.95 Eric Lauer MLW 715 -31.95
746.95 Julio Teheran LAA NA NA
747 Dennis Santana LAD NA NA
747.5 Michael Feliz PIT NA NA
747.55 Jordan Lyles TEX 712.25 -35.3
747.73 Luis Cessa NYY 680 -67.73
747.95 Justin Topa MLW NA NA
747.95 Sam Coonrod SF NA NA
748.18 Sean Newcomb ATL 737.75 -10.43
748.27 Sam Delaplane SEA NA NA
748.36 Angel Rondon STL NA NA
748.45 Jorge Guzman MIA NA NA
748.45 Mitch White LAD NA NA
748.5 Blake Parker PHI 706.25 -42.25
748.5 Joe Kelly LAD NA NA
748.73 Ryan Tepera CHC NA NA
748.77 Sam Selman SF NA NA
748.86 Gerardo Reyes LAA NA NA
748.95 Jay Groome BOS NA NA
749 Tyler Clippard MIN NA NA
749.09 Jose Castillo SD 738.75 -10.34
749.5 Jacob Barnes NYM NA NA
749.5 Rogelio Armenteros ARZ NA NA
749.59 Huascar Ynoa ATL NA NA
749.68 Scott Moss CLE 737 -12.68
749.73 Asher Wojciechowski BAL 741.75 -7.98
749.73 Tyson Ross DET NA NA
749.86 Nick Neidert MIA NA NA
750 Brandon Brennan SEA NA NA
750.05 Ryan Rolison COL NA NA
750.32 Andre Scrubb HOU 750.25 -0.07
750.45 Carl Edwards Jr. SEA 750.5 0.05
750.55 Burch Smith OAK NA NA
750.59 Shaun Anderson SF NA NA
750.64 Oliver Drake TB 726 -24.64
750.64 Mike Leake ARZ NA NA
750.73 Ryan Weber BOS NA NA
750.77 Jarlin Garcia SF NA NA
750.86 Brooks Raley HOU 740.5 -10.36
750.91 Ryan Pepiot LAD NA NA
750.95 Addison Russ NYY NA NA
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball





Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as random topics that float into his juvenile brain. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and a fantasy football and baseball writer for Fantasy Alarm. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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Daiginjo
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Daiginjo

Valdez reminds me a bit of Fried, in that your level of enthusiasm for 2021 is commensurate with your ability to not think about fluctuating HR rates. And hey, Valdez gets a ton of groundballs and Fried generates a ton of weak contact, so there is reason to believe.

But with that being said, I really don’t understand Steamer’s forecast for Valdez at all. His K rate declines, his walk rate jumps, his HR rate nudges up a bit, and his ERA … will be exactly the same as it was in 2020? Maybe Steamer thinks he got real unlucky with his strand rate and that is moving the needle. But Fried’s projections look a lot more plausible to me.