November ADP Market Report: Starting Pitchers

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising
Framber Valdez (+11.18)- Valdez jumped up into the top 100 in ADP during November and it was well deserved. He threw 70.2 innings with over a strikeout an inning, a 3.57 ERA, and a 1.12 WHIP. HE then doubled down in the postseason, throwing another 24 innings with a 1.88 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP and 24 strikeouts. He allows a ton of hard contact, but very little of it is in air. There is some concern about what his inning totals may be in 2021, but considering he threw 94.2 innings between the regular and postseason, there is no reason to think he can’t be a guy that throws 150+. Right now he is a top 25 pitcher and I am here for it.

Top 100 Players Falling
Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 (-12.82)- Ryu is perpetually underrated. He has not had an ERA of 3 since 2017 and he has never had an ERA above 3.77 except in 2016 when he only pitched 4.2 innings. His WHIPs are excellent as well and he tends to strikeout a batter per inning throughout his career. So, why is he dropping? There is the rational fear that he won’t pitch a ton of innings. Since coming into the league in 2013, Ryu has never topped 200 innings and he has only topped 150 innings three times. There is some risk to taking Ryu, but if paired with a workhorse, he offers a ton of upside.

Top 200 Players Rising
None

Top 200 Players Falling
Sixto Sanchez (-23.86)- Sanchez was phenomenal in his Major League debut for the Marlins, posting a 3.46 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP with 33 strikeouts in 39 innings pitched. Sanchez has a good fastball with an elite change that he uses to fool batters. He is dropping in drafts largely because the helium was a bit too high, but now he seems to be in a pretty decent spot as the 38th starter off the board. He even represents some value if you buy the initial breakout. That being said, Sanchez had a pretty checkered injury history in the minors which hurt his prospect stock prior to making his MLB debut. Definitely could be a nice SP3 if you get one or two studs to anchor your rotation.

Marco Gonzales (-20.16)- Gonzales is not the sexiest pitcher, but I think most would be surprised that his ERA has been 3.85 and his WHIP has been 1.22 since 2018. He isn’t going to strike a lot of guys out, but he suppresses hard contact and allows his defense behind him to pick him up. I wish we were still getting a huge discount on him, but he will be slept on once again.

Triston McKenzie (-28.16)- I love the skills that McKenzie showed, but talent has never been the issue with him. McKenzie has battled to stay healthy and before making his Major League debut in 2020, he hadn’t pitched since 2018. His slight frame and previous injury history points to higher risk in predicting future injury and the likelihood that Cleveland may limit his innings to protect him. The price isn’t bad, but like Sixto Sanchez, you should make sure you have anchors in the rotation before using a pick on him.

Top 300 Players Rising
Elieser Hernandez (+25.73)- Hernandez is becoming a trendy sleeper which accounts for his rise in the ADP. He is interesting, but I am not buying in quite yet. Hernandez average exit velocity was 91.8 which is in the third percentile of the league. He allows a lot of hard contact and too many fly balls for a guy that allows that high of an average exit velocity. The biggest issue for me is the fact that he is really a two pitch guy. He only threw 27 changeups in 2020 and while the slider is great, unless he can improve the changeup usage or add a different third pitch, he has reliever written all over him.

Masahiro Tanaka (+39.09)- At this point in his career, Tanaka is who is, which is a perfectly fine innings eater that gets hurt by the long ball. That being said, if he does not return to the Yankees and moves to a more homer friendly park, he could be a steal at 275.

Tarik Skubal (+21.52)- It was a rough debut for the rookie pitcher, but if you stopped paying attention to Detroit down the stretch, you might have missed some of Skubal’s best work. Over his last three starts, Skubal threw 14.2 innings, striking out 20 with only three walks and six earned runs which was good for a 3.68 ERA and a .89 WHIP. It was a reflection of better pitch mix as he tends to rely on his fastball too much. His upside is apparent with his strikeouts, but the downside is there as well with a ton of fly balls and hard contact. He is just inside the top 300, so there is a ton of profit potential, but he also could be a guy you end up dropping in June.

Top 300 Players Falling
Chris Sale (-27.09)- It is not surprising to see Sale dropping in drafts after missing the entire with Tommy John surgery. Sale is not expected to be ready to start the season and it seems unlikely he is pitching in the Majors until sometime mid-summer.

Shohei Ohtani (-31.08)- Ohtani is coming off an extremely disappointing season in which he only threw 1.2 innings as a pitcher and hit .190/.291/.366 with seven home runs and seven stolen bases. The question becomes, will he ever be the two-staud we thought we were getting when he came over from Japan? You almost wish the Angels would just make him a hitter, because he would likely have a ton of upside with just the bat. Part of the struggles at the plate was just bad luck. He sported a .229 BABIP after two straight years of his BABIP being .350. He likely would have worked his way out of it and delivered a much better average. In daily moves league, he is still insanely valuable if he is pitching and hitting even just near the level he is capable of, but I fear it may never come together. Even in NFBC or weekly formats, his price is just too good to pass up especially when he drops outside of the top 300.

Corey Kluber (-30.55)- Kluber threw just one inning in the Majors in 2020 after missing most of 2019 with injury. The Rangers decided to not pick up his option which is troublesome as well. That being said, the price is great and he is only two years removed from being one of the best pitchers in baseball year in and year out. He is supposedly healthy and is going to pitch for teams next month. Once he signs, his price will go up, so now is the time to take the gamble.

Nathan Eovaldi (-19.98)- Eovaldi is coming off of a great season, where he threw 48.1 innings with over a strike out an inning, a 3.72 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. His SIERA, FIP and xFIP are pretty in line with his ERA and he had a nice growth in his swinging strike rate, o-swing, and ground ball rate have taken a nice upswing. So, why is he dropping? I think there are legitimate concerts about his workload. He has not thrown more than 125 innings in a season since 2015 and he has had consistency issues throughout his career. That being said, the price is fine and he does have upside in his profile. He is worth the dart throw late.