November ADP Market Report: Relief Pitchers

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising
Edwin Diaz (+10.18)- Diaz started out rough, but rebounded to put together a pretty great season in 2020. He saved six games and struck out 50 in 25.2 innings with a 1.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He should be locked into the closer role in New York considering the way he played in 2020 and his contract which will continue to pull up his ADP as draft season goes on.

 

Top 100 Players Falling
None

 

Top 200 Players Rising
Trevor Rosenthal (+21.23)- Rosenthal grabbed the closer role in Kansas City early on in the season and was fantastic, but he was unhittable after being traded to San Diego at the deadline. In 10 innings for the Padres, he saved four games and did not allow an earned run while striking out 17. He is a free agent, but it would be surprising for him not to get a closing job in the open market.

Rafael Montero (+26.75)- Montero’s rise up the ADP was in progress long before he was traded to Seattle this month, but it should continue to climb as it appears he should be the de facto closer in Seattle. With so many closing situations in limbo, Montero offers a nice value for a guy that appears to be locked into a role as the main guy.

Kirby Yates (+29.61)- Kirby Yates was a top 50-60 pick coming into 2020, but he struggled with injuries and only threw 4.1 innings. When healthy he is a dominant force in the back of a bullpen, but he is a free agent and we have no idea if he will be a closer even if he is healthy. Until we know more, I am fading him.

 

Top 200 Players Falling
None

 

Top 300 Players Rising
Craig Kimbrel (+61.73)- Kimbrel really struggled to begin the year, allowing seven earned runs in his first four appearances and losing the closer role. However, after that he was great. From August 14th on, he threw 12.2 innings and only allowed two runs while striking out 26 and saving two games. His contract means he should close to start the season, but he also has a vesting option that could force the team to take away some opportunities if they don’t want him to hit the games finished benchmark, though that seems unlikely to happen either way. Right now, he is affordably priced as a #2 closer if you believe in the second half he put up.

Mark Melancon (+20.23)- Melancon was great in 2020, saving 11 games and posting a 2.78 ERA in 22.2 innings. The strikeouts and WHIP were less than desirable, but he got the job done in the ninth for the Braves. He does a great job at limiting homers and fly balls and relies on his defense to pick him up. He is a free agent, but should be able to find a job as a closer once the bigger names in the market come off the table.

Giovanny Gallegos (+41.55)- The rise in ADP suggests that most people feel like the Cardinals will be using Gallegos as the closer. However, I do not know if that is the case. The Cardinals have Alex Reyes, Andrew Miller, Jordan Hicks, Ryan Helsley, and John Gant in this bullpen and not a single player had more than four saves in 2020 and seven players registered at least one. I think Gallegos will be in the mix, but this has committee written all over it.

Stefan Crichton– (+21.43)- Crichton assumed the closer role in Arizona largely because so many others struggled in it prior to his shot. He was very good in 2020 and it improved on a solid 2019. He does a good job of not allowing batters to barrel him up and doesn’t give up home runs, so he is a pretty unsexy, but stable option in the Arizona bullpen. With the Diamondbacks looking like they are not contenders, it would appear he has the leg up for saves in Arizona and the price is one that is very attractive.

Drew Pomeranz (+27.14)- With Rosenthal hitting free agency, Pomeranz looks like he is the closer now in San Diego. He put together a strong season in 2020, saving four games in 18.2 innings with a 1.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts. San Diego is a contender, so it would not be surprising to see them grab a proven closer in free agency to strengthen their already deep bullpen. That being said, even if Pomeranz isn’t getting all the saves, at his price he can be a valuable commodity in fantasy.

 

Top 300 Players Falling
Brandon Kintzler (-63.32)- It is really interesting to see guys like Rosenthal and Melancon moving up the ADP in spite of not having a contract with a team, but Kintzler to be dropping the way he is. Kintzler isn’t anything special, but he does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground and limiting hard contact. There is no guarantee he gets a closing gig wherever he lands, but he may be a cheaper option than other free agent relievers for teams not wanting to open their wallet this offseason. He is worth the gamble especially as he nears falling out of the top 300 picks.