Nicklaus Gaut’s 2023 Second Base Ranks

The New Year cometh (cameth?) and now so too does our last rankings stop on the infield. We’ve now seen in hindsight just how good we had it at catcher and first base, as shortstop is deep but gets shallow fast, and third base is mostly a pit of danger after the first eight guys, or so. Well, bad news, chuckles – second base is no picnic; unless you like yours with bears and half-eaten Jean Segura’s.

Okay, it’s not that bad but part of the problem is we got spoiled with some unusual cats roaming the eligibility fence in 2022. Trea Turner and Mookie Betts are 2B-eligible no more, as are a total of 10 of the top 25 fantasy earners from the position last season. The good news is that a trio of IL-cursed former earners should make their way back to prominence but even with their returns, second base is looking a lot closer to third base than to any other fantasy position. There are quality guys at the top and value to be found late but plenty of players will come with big questions even before you get out of the top 10.

Before we get to our regularly scheduled programs, we must address the makeover my projections have gone through the past few days, and how those adjustments are changing my strategy for roster construction in 2023. You see, everything was fine but then JZ had to go and drop the hot joint. No, you didn’t miss an album from HOVA – I’m talking Jeff Zimmerman, of course.

I don’t want to turn this into a commercial for the latest version of The Process from Jeff and Tanner Bell but simply put, no one has done the work that they have on what practical changes might be coming with the myriad of rule changes in 2023. No one. Or, at least, if someone else has, they aren’t sharing it. It’s not to say that these predictions on how and what will change will be perfect but that’s not the point. There is only so much data to work with when trying to project the effect of changes that have never happened in the majors before and I find it hard to believe you’ll find a much better method than with Jeff came up with.

While I hate being cagey, I’m also not going to give away their hard work by getting into any sort of specifics (you should buy it!). But we knew the shift ban, pitch clock, and base changes were going to lead to higher BABIPs (and batting averages) and more stolen bases. The Process has given us a data-backed framework for what to expect, and from who. Now, of course, I couldn’t just leave well enough alone and tacked on a few wrinkles when making my adjustments to account for some different types of players but just as important as nailing projection changes for specific players, is adjusting your strategy and team-building to what looks to be a completely different landscape in two categories that have slowly been decaying into resources more and more scarce.

Whether your dealing in fantasy baseball categories or blood diamonds, large increases in supply will lead to devaluation, and less demand, just as diminishing resources will lead to higher prices and hoarding. And if a market is about to be (relatively) flooded, those who anticipate it best will reap the biggest edges. And make no mistake, the biggest edges to be had from the rule changes will come this season. Eventually, the market will find its level, while projections and expectations will adjust. But it’s the crafty minx who’ll eat like kings in 2023.

No more preamble, let’s get going.

We’ll start with how everyone finished in 2022. Here were the top 60 second basemen by overall rank, along with their ranks and PA totals by half, and ADP data from both 2022 and 2023:

And here are the same top 60 from above, this time with their 5×5 roto stats, again by half and for the full season:

No time like the present to find out the who’s, what’s, and why’s – let’s get to it. Here are my current 2023 projections at second base, followed by all of the tiers you’re normally totally used to.

Tier: Truly Believing Jazz is Great Finally Feels Plausible*

Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA (36 ADP, min: 23, max 50)

Oh, you didn’t know? Jas Rado’s gonna ca-aall somebod-daaaaay. Doing his best to once and for all make finally make jazz cool, Jazz Chisholm Jr. is just one healthy season from the breakout he deserves. That’s it! Just one, tiny, little healthy season. Sure, he may have missed time in 2021 with a balky shoulder and hamstring, and yes, he definitely only played 60 games in 2022 after a stress fracture in his back at the start of June wound up costing him the rest of the season.

Sigh, okay, fine! After he was officially ruled out for the rest of 2022, Chisholm also had knee surgery for a torn meniscus. I freely admit that none of the above should give us confidence about a healthy 2023. But now for some “good” news. Kind of?

Chisholm’s minor injuries from 2021 didn’t reoccur and while his back fracture eventually cost him four months, that doesn’t necessarily speak to the severity as it’s one of those injuries that heal very differently from person to person, and Jazz (and Miami) were initially anticipating more of a 6-8 week recovery time. But it lingered and the Marlins wisely sided with an abundance of caution. Oh, and that knee injury? Chisholm tore it in spring training but was managing to play (and run) through it, stealing 12 bases in 241 PA.

The best future of injuries is often told by the past but Chisholm’s specific ones from 2022 aren’t particularly scary to me. Plus, my confidence cannot help but be buoyed by his participation in this year’s World Baseball Classic (for Great Britain), something I feel he’d only be playing in if fully healthy.

Putting a pin in injury sack, a healthy Chisholm is not an outrageous bet to go 30/30. Prior to getting shut down last June, he was on a 600 PA pace of 35 HR and 30 SB, with his career-best .058 HR per PA backed by big jumps in barrels and exit velocities. His 9% Brl% and 5.7% Brl/PA from 2021, leaped to a 16.7% Brl% and 10.4% Brl/PA, while his Air% average EV finished in the 95th percentile, up from the 72nd.

Chisholm should also get a categorical double bounce from the rule changes. He’s the type of player (already an elite base stealer and with top-level speed) that I think will benefit the most from the rule changes beneficial to increased stolen bases. And the shift bans should also give his BA a decent boost – Chisholm faced a full shift 77% in 2022, running a . 283 BABIP, .235 AVG, and .221 xBA against it.

I already loved me some Chisholm prior to baking in more reasonable adjustments due to the rule changes but now I’m fully on board. Yes, the health concerns have to be taken into account but, hey! Dansby Swanson was also injury prone right up until he wasn’t. And so was Byron Bux-…Err, never mind.

*Alternate tier titles:
Tier: The Year Jazz-Loving Hipsters Inadvertently Stop Being Liars
Tier: Jazz That Hasn’t Already Been Ruined by How Much Your New Stepdad Terry Loves It
Tier: Claiming You Love Jazz – No Longer Just For Trying to Impress the Weekend Barista Down At the Ironically Named Coffee Shop Near The Fourth Floor Studio You Bought Because Your Realtor Told You Was In an Up-and-Coming Neighborhood But the Third Time You Got Mugged Has Really Started To Make You Question Whether Sheila Might Have Just Been a Dirty Liar

Tier: All Marcus Semien Does is Kick PAs and Verb Some Other Noun- And He’s All Out of the Latter

Marcus Semien, TEX (36 ADP, min: 23, max 50)

I’m not sure why Marcus Semien has never made his way onto my teams but as my belief in the church of PAs grows more fervent, Saint Semien has begun looking more and more appealing.

Crossing 700 PA is very hard to do, only 32 players in the five full seasons between 2017 and 2022 have done it. Crossing 700 PA multiple times in the given time period is even harder, of those 32 players, only six did it more than once, and only three more than twice.

But just one PA warrior went over 700 PA in four of the past five seasons, including the current leader in the clubhouse (747 PA). You shouldn’t need any more clues.

Clearly, Semien is inhuman, chewing up a level of plate appearances that can act as a compiler crutch in fantasy, even in the face of slumps and regression. While the new Globe Life isn’t the launching pad it used to be, neither are the rules, and the new ones in 2023 are should benefit Semien more than most.

For one, Semien is coming off of a career-high year for stolen bases (25), which would normally scream to beware of the uncaring hammer of regression. But that blow should be lessened by the overall bump that’s coming to most stolen base rates, especially to ones like Semien, who has a history of decent rates and above-average speed. And it doesn’t hurt that he’s on a team unafraid to run, with the Rangers ranking 1st in attempt rate in 2022, and 4th in 2021. I’m not counting on 25 SB again but something near 20 seems reasonable.

For two, the shift rules should bring a chunk of batting average relief, as increased shifts continue to be unkind to Semien.

Semien brings an ironclad commitment to racking PAs and a balanced categorical profile that should get a little extra gravy from the new rules. No one will ooh and ahh but sign me up all day for that kind of early-round safety.

Tier: Buying the Dip(s)?

Ozzie Albies, ATL (57 ADP, min:32, max: 77)

Trevor Story, BOS (77 ADP, min: 52, max: 96)

Brandon Lowe, TB (181 ADP, min: 90, max: 236)

One bad year and all of the sudden these guys are getting treated like a trio of day-old, liver pâté. But should they be?

Ozzie Albies is another player set up to get a double-scoop of categorical gravy from 2023’s rule changes. He’s always posted excellent SB per PA rates and has above-average speed, making him an easy player to bet on getting more than the average SB increase. And Albies was shifted against 76% in 2022, with a .254 BABIP and .232 AVG. With a ban on the shift, I’m expecting the batting average we get in 2023 to be a lot closer to his earlier seasons (.279 AVG from 2017-2019) than the most recent ones (.258 AVG from 2020-2022).

Trevor Story had 15 HR, 49 R, 58 RBI, and 10 SB in the first half but since he only had a .221 AVG and then got hurt in the second half, suddenly he’s (relatively) washed? Sorry, not buying it.

But I am buying Story at an ADP that feels about three rounds too late. And while he doesn’t get shifted against enough to feel a difference in his batting average, I’m banking on Story’s SB total to continue being excellent, as the new rules will favor his speed and his previous SB per PA history.

Welcome to my favorite buy-low of the season, Mr. Brandon Lowe. I mean, a 181 ADP? With a 236 max??? The same Brandon Lowe that had 39 HR in 2021 and 14 HR in just 56 games in 2020? That Brandon Lowe, right? Not Brandon Drury? Or maybe, Josh Lowe? This is so confusing.

Yes, I’m aware of how poorly 2022 went. Lowe started out slow, missed a bunch of time after hurting his back, tried to come back, and was positively awful. This is what’s technically known as a lost forking year. It happens.

And I’m not going to judge a player’s future performance off of one injury-riddled lost year unless those injuries still aren’t healed. But the Rays are claiming he’s fully healthy and is in the midst of a normal offseason. Sure, it’s next to impossible to trust those diabolical Rays but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt, this time.

If a 28-year-old Lowe is healthy, I see few reasons to not value somewhere near where I did heading into 2022 – a top-50 hitter with the most power potential at the position. And now one with a batting average on the upswing, after facing a full shift 85% of the time in 2022.

I’m not counting on Lowe’s draft price to stay so depressed but unless some bad news comes on the back front, I suspect he’ll be one of my most rostered players in 2022, even if the cost does rise.

Tier: Buying the Dip(s)? II: This Time Make It a Double

Jorge Polanco, MIN (167 ADP, min: 122, max: 210)

Jonathan India, CIN (190 ADP, min: 123, max: 255)

Jonathan India is your classic buy-low, injury bounceback, post-hype sleeper – or whatever else label you feel like using – candidate. After a rookie of the year campaign, India’s hype and ADP ballooned up in 2022 but that sack of hot air got snipered out of the sky by a series of injuries. Hamstring injuries cost him two long stints on the IL and a hit-by-pitch on the shin in August led to swelling in his leg for the remainder of the season.

Even when playing, the exit velocities from 2021 that had driven some’s excitement for his power future, had evaporated, with his Brl% dropping from the 61st percentile to the 20th and his Air% average EV going from the 53rd to the 24th. But there was some second-half optimism, going from a 2.6% Brl% to 6.2% Brl%, and his Air% EV increasing nearly 4 mph. Still not the levels you’re looking for but I’m game to bet on a healthy India getting back to taking advantage of that home park masquerading as a major league stadium.

Even with a return to power, India drags the same categorical anchor all the Reds do, as the quality of their offense will make compiling R+RBI difficult. But India’s price is just so juicy and gives him plenty of room to earn a lot of surplus value.

Comparing my outlook on Jorge Polanco compared to other projections, it seems our biggest disagreement is not with rates but with playing time, as I’m calling for a near-return to his 150+ game seasons of the recent past. At least, the ones before 2022, when he only played 104 games due to a lower back strain and a season-ending knee injury from a collision at the plate in August.

A return to his everyday playing ways, and the BABIP boost he should get after facing a full shift 72% of the time in 2022 (.260 BABIP, .228 AVG), should make it easy for Polanco to out-earn his current ADP.

Tier: The Vaughn Grissom Question

Vaughn Grissom, ATL (198 ADP, min: 133, max: 274)

It doesn’t matter what position the article is covering, or where the comments are coming from. Whether here at FanGraphs, Reddit, or Twitter – someone will ask about Vaughn Grissom. I am not exaggerating. But it’s finally time, so let’s talk about possibly the most important Vaughn to hit the bigs since Ricky dominated the California Penal League.

What I Don’t Like

The 22-year-old Vaughn only has 156 PA in the majors and 98 PA at Double-A, for a grand total of 254 PA above High-A ball. That’s a hard sample to make big bets on, even if he did slash .291/.353/.440 in the majors, with 5 HR and 5 SB, after running over a .400 OBP at every stop in the minors except for his first one (.361 OBP at rookie ball).

I’m also finding his 2022 power bump (19 HR over three levels and 598 PA) to be a little suss, given the exit velocities he showed in the pro’s weren’t anything special. His Air% (100+ mph) was in the 22nd percentile, while the average of his Top-5% batted balls was in the 12th percentile. But hey, his 7.4% Brl% was slightly above-average and his Air% average EV would’ve finished in the 75th percentile if qualified.

What I Like

As mentioned, Grissom has been an on-base machine everywhere he’s played and steals a bunch of bases, even if his sprint speed isn’t chart-topping. But it is above average and with a previous proclivity for running, I expect he’ll keep up the thefts in 2023. And while he was much better vs LHP, he more than held his own vs RHP, slashing .273/.324/.404.

But will he play full-time? Steamer and Depth Charts say no, each projecting him for 110 games. But put me down for a mostly yes, calling for 129 games and 505 PA. My reasoning is simple; who else is going to play shortstop?

Oh sure, there’s Orlando Arcia, who has played a total of six games at shortstop over the past two seasons, and over the 200 games he played there from 2019-2020, racked up a -5 OAA. In limited action last season at the plate, Arcia slashed .244/.316/.416 over 234 PA but when facing LHP, slashed .213/.290/.311.

Given the above, I just don’t consider Arcia a credible threat to Grissom’s playing time, barring an absolute meltdown. And Atlanta seems to feel the same way, letting Swanson walk while failing to sign even a plausible replacement. Do you know how many other shortstops Atlanta has on their 40-man? One. Braden Shewmake, a 25-year-old former 1st-round pick that just put lackluster numbers in his first shot at Triple-A.

Verdict

Grissom could be a minor fantasy force if he sticks as Atlanta’s full-time shortstop, even if the power ends up lighter and he’s batting near the bottom of the order. What can I say? I just love that Atlanta lineup and think it’ll be good enough for Grissom to still compile a non-embarrassing amount of R+RBI, even from the nine-hole. My current projections already have him as a value at his current ADP but there’s still plenty of room for upside if gets closer to 550 PA than 500.

Tier: Sweet Jiminy, I’m Really Getting Sucked In By Ketel Marte Again?

Ketel Marte, ARI (220 ADP, min: 93, max: 279)

Sweet Jiminy, I’m really getting sucked in by Ketel Marte again? Actually, no. I’m probably not personally going to get sucked in, even if my projections make him a pretty good value compared to his current ADP. The problem is that a big chunk of Marte’s projected value is coming from the batting average bump that the shift ban (54% shift% in 2022: .264 BABIP, .233 AVG) is likely to bring him in 2023.

That increased average might bump up his power on paper but it’s hard to bet on any sort of return to power after his top-shelf EVs took big steps back in 2022. Marte’s Brl% dropped from the 55th percentile to the 32nd, his Air% EV went from the 70th to the 21st and his Air% (100+ mph) from 78th to the 31st.

With a profile propped up by batting average, and four categories that will likely be middling, at best, Marte will be a pass for me, even at the highly discounted ADP.

Tier: Recently Named Most Likely to Sound Delicious If Sauteed With Butter

Christopher Morel, CHC (255 ADP, min: 179, max: 323)

With a 255 ADP and a (currently) clear path to playing time, Christopher Morel and his flashy fantasy profile are looking real juicy, like. At least, on paper. Morel’s sprint speed is in the top 10%, as is his Brl% and Air% average EV, and his Air% (100+ mph) finished in the 96th percentile. Dude can blast balls.

Now, can he make contact? Ehh-hhhh, we’ll have to see; Morel had a 64% Contact% for the season, dropping from 65% in the first half, to 62% in the second half. And his eye certainly didn’t get any better, finishing with a 29% Chase% that rose to 33% in the first half from 25%.

Morel has the tools to go 20/20 but is on a mediocre offense, doesn’t have a guaranteed full-time role, and really struggled vs LHP in his first go-round, slashing .190/.297/.330, with a .627 OPS and .282 wOBA. That, along with a versatile but not particularly good glove, is not a great recipe for playing time success. The cost is minimal but I’m only drafting Morel when I can get him as a late-round bench filler with a little lotto ticket upside.

Tier: One-Trick Pony Heel Turn

Jeff McNeil, NYM (198 ADP, min: 137, max: 240)

Luis Arraez, MIN (219 ADP, min: 130, max: 270)

We’ve already been over my defenses of OTPs, treating them as specialty tools that only work with the right team construction. Neither Luis Arraez nor Jeff McNeil are true ‘one-trickers’, as Arraez should still be a good runs collector batting leadoff, and Jeff McNeil comes with more categorical balance and will hit in the middle of a great lineup. But both are squeezing most of their fantasy juice from plus (plus!) batting averages, and the changes in shift rules will dilute that juice worse than Mcdonald’s does orange juice.

Could either still spike a monster batting average and end the year with overall values that put them near the top 10? Absolutely yes! But this is about team construction and the batting average pool just got a lot deeper. When the availability of a given commodity increases, it will only get more difficult to scrape value from dedicating resources to an oversized (but underbalanced) deposit.

Wait! What am I doing??? Throw all those facts and numbers out of the window because I’ll never forsake my love for you Luis! Forget Jeff Zimmerman and his math-based propaganda – sometimes you just have to act from the heart.

I may not yet know how drafting you is a good idea given the changing offensive environment in 2023 but do we even need to know the answer when we have love on our side? I mean, I also don’t know why any reputable barber would ever be dressed like that, but who really cares?

His barber pole mic is still pure fire and so is the love we have for each other in our hearts…Trust me

Wait, WHAT? You’re saying that shyster Paul Sporer claims he has a DM from me that said I was about to go full heel turn on you and “superkick you through a window like Marty Jannetty”?

Outrageous! For one, clearly, Paul cannot be trusted. This is known.  And for two, sure, I’m aware that the new shift rules are going to rise a lot of the fantasy tide around you, turning your big fancy tool a bit rusty and making it a lot harder to build around you given the power/speed deficiencies.

But fantasy strategy and those silly, little rule changes be damned!

Me and you, Luis – we’re partners for life, pal

And you really are still my guy…It’s just the thing is, those rule changes actually aren’t that silly. In fact, they’re super important to the fantasy value landscape, and in this first year of our lord of adjustment, those who understand them best will be the fantasy managers most primed to gain a big edge in year one.

But, one thing is for sure; I’d never say I was going to “superkick you through a window like Jannetty” because that never even happened, in the first place…

Quick! Look over there!

Because he got superkicked and then thrown out of a window (duh).

Just like I have to do to you now, Luis. Except instead of the “plate-glass” window that 12-year-old Nicklaus was seriously convinced may have just literally gutted a Rocker, I’m throwing you out of my draft board. That stick is still slick but the new rule changes are going to cause big waves in the fantasy sea and only a fool ignores new information in favor of old loves.

Sorry Marty Luis – but you should’ve known that chest hair always said solo act