Nicklaus Gaut’s 2022 Second Base Rankings

It might be a little late but the dark days are almost over, as the love of our sporting life will soon be here again. And with it, the song in my heart can no longer be contained.

Because I call you when I need you, fill my spreadsheets with fire
You come to me, come to me, spring through fall
Mmmmm, and it can’t be wrong
You take my heart and make it strong  

Baseball’s simply the best!
It’s better than all the rest.
Better than any sport,
any sport that I’ve ever met.
You’re stuck in my heart,
I hang on every stat you’ve got.
Manfred tried to tear us apart,
But baby, I would rather be dead.

No time for a reprise, let’s get to ranking.

And here are the Top-8 Tiers, now presented in cutting-edge Technicolor with Dolby Surround Sound:

Tier One/1B

We all know about what we need to in regards to the consensus #1 pick, Trea Turner, right? Five categories with plus production at the two that are more and more scarce every season, leading off for a video game-esque lineup in Los Angeles. But only his ridiculous fantasy profile keeps Ozzie Albies from being in the top tier, overshadowing someone who shouldn’t really ever get past pick #15ish.

Albies might not match Turner in stolen bases and average but he’s also no slouch in either, hitting near the top of a superb offense (and one that becomes significantly better once Ronald Acuna Jr. rejoins the team) and in an offensive-friendly home park. It’s a safely high floor and I’m not convinced that we’ve yet seen the best season from Albies, who, inexplicably, is still just 25-years-old.

If you don’t want to mess around in the second baseman’s free-for-all run that tends to happen between ADP 70-90, then Ozzie, Ozzie, Ozzie is your man. Oi-Oi-Oi.

Tier Two

Outside of Turner, Whit Merrifield might be the safest player on the board – at least in regards to what your expectations for drafting him should be – and is a walking (running) example of why the relationship between fantasy success and Statcast sliders is not always a 1:1 relationship, just as playing the fastest man in the multiverse is no guarantee you’ll be a good human being.

Merrifield has had 151 SB since 2017, stealing at least 40 SB in two of those seasons and 34 SB in a third. The only blemish was when he finished 2019 with 20 SB, as his 12 SB in 2020 was still a 30 SB pace in the shortened season.

And call me crazy but I don’t think he’s getting a red light any time soon:

It’s not just the stolen bases, however, as Merrifield’s plus batting average gives you a double-dose of goodness because of how many plate appearances it is likely to come over:

2017: 630 PA
2018: 707 PA
2019: 735 PA
2020: 265 PA in 60 games
2021: 720 PA

Big-time speed and batting average, – and considering he’ll be followed by uber-prospect, Bobby Witt Jr./uber-masher, Salvador Perez – a 90 run floor that could easily cross triple-digits. Power, schmower; this is the second-round statistical base that you are looking for.

Tier Three

On your marks, get set, go! Because the guys in this tier (along with Marcus Semien and everyone in Tier Four, minus Max Muncy) tend to go in fast and furious runs in approximately the same area of every draft. I’m not going to post a bunch of boards to prove this out but my experience has been that these second baseman runs have been about the most predictable things of this draft season and once the avalanche starts, it’s not stopping until all of those guys are gone.

This predictability is great! Starter and closer runs can be a lot dicier to predict and can often be inconsistent from draft to draft, possibly leaving you scrambling to catch up or anticipate. But with the metronome that second base has been, there is no need to play guessing games about who may, or may not, come back to you. If you pass on one of these guys at the start of the run (which often starts with Semien/Lowe), you should probably assume that none of them will make it back and that you’ll need to shop elsewhere.

I believe that I have at least one share of everyone in this tier, as their overall values are in a similar range for me. But they all have relatively different categorical profiles so when shopping in this aisle I’ve gone with who happens to be the best-looking puzzle piece for my team at the time.

Brandon Lowe: The most power in the tier, and arguably at the entire position, Lowe gives you the safest floor for counting stats, outside of stolen bases, but with a mid-level average.

Ketel Marte: Freshly paid, Marte will give you a plus batting average but with little speed, and above-average R+RBI but being on a lesser offense like Arizona doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. However, there might be more power in the bag than projected, as Marte was in the 77th percentile for both Air% (100+ mph) and Air% Average EV, putting up higher numbers than he did in 2019’s 31 HR performance. Health continues to be the biggest question mark but Marte still might be my favorite in this tier as it’s been my experience that he is often the one out of the group to fall in a given draft.

Jonathan India: With a well-rounded profile, my love of India is documented. Unfortunately, that Reds lineup just keeps getting worse and the counting stats could take a big hit.

Tommy Edman: He’s the best source of speed but Edman’s spot at the top of the Cardinals lineup no longer seems assured, as he’s spent time at the bottom of the order during spring. Considering his splits last season (.293 wOBA v RHP/.336 wOBA v LHP), this could portend a lot fewer PAs.

Javier Báez: Similar profile to what I’m expecting from India but with more volatility, hitting in the middle of a much better lineup but in a park that eats homers for breakfast.

Tier Four

If the UCL holds, Max Muncy will end up as one of 2022’s best bargains. Unfortunately, any premise built upon “if the UCL holds” is not the steadiest ground. But even with Muncy playing in spring (albeit at “85%”) the discount has remained big enough that I’ve grabbed a share or two.

His speed will give him a large margin for error but Jazz Chisholm Jr. might have the most bust potential in the top-75. Over 507 PA last year, Chisholm posted a .303 OBP and 28.6% K% overall but was even worse against LHP, running a .282 OBP, 33.3% K%, and .289 wOBA. His playing time against them, let alone at the top of the order, is no guarantee.

Tier Five

Jean Segura and his unsexy profile get no respect, even after finishing the past two seasons as a top-100 hitter on the RazzBall player rater. He won’t hurt you in any category, giving a plus batting average with double-digit steals and 15+ HR. And given the current state of the all-new Phillies lineup, RBI opportunities should be aplenty from the number six spot he should be mostly occupying.

With a post-175 ADP, Segura’s profit potential is as easy as that stuff posing as cheese on Philly’s most famous sandwich.

It’s tempting to buy the bounceback of DJ LeMahieu considering he was apparently dealing with a sports hernia during his no-good 2021 season. However, even if you think the hitting returns, where does he return to start after the Yankees’ offseason frenzy? Because it’s not first base (Anthony Rizzo), or third base (Josh Donaldson), and Gleyber Torres seems to be in for the lion’s share of time at second base.

Granted, Glass Calf Josh is no guarantee to stay healthy, just as there isn’t one for Gleyber to have his own bounceback and keep the job locked down. But for right now, LeMahieu seems OLI when it comes to an everyday spot on the field and that puts him completely off my radar at a top-150 ADP.

Tier Six

I’m guided by a few bedrock rules in fantasy baseball, with using a value-based drafting system and tracking your stats as you go both sitting at the top of the list.

But arguably just as important is to always go all-in on players whose first name has the same unique spelling as my own, with the same surname of the earwig that has lived in my family’s head for the past five months. So-oooo…

Drawers!
Floors!
Doors!
Let’s go.

This is my tier pick,
though he may not hit a homer.
So full of contact,
A hit stick of his own design.
This is my MI,
A perfect Cub-stellation,
Not many stars there so just about anyone can shine.

Whoa!
But let’s be clear, the Cubs won’t run the show, whoa
They haven’t won a division since long ago, whoa
And every year their Cubness sinks them low,
But for fantasy there’s simply a lot to know, so

Welcome to the love of Nicklaus Madrigal.
The home of contact and speed, Madrigal (he’ll run away)
Where the hits and bags are fantastical and magical
I’m (an adopted) part of the Family Madrigal.

Alright, alright, relax. Madrigal hasn’t shown much in the majors yet, as serious injuries have knocked him for a loop. But he’s healthy now and given the elite OBP, I’m betting he’ll make his way closer to the top of Chicago’s order sooner rather than later. He doesn’t hit bombs but what he does provide is the potential for a .300 AVG and 20+ bags if he makes his way out from the bottom of the order and gets closer to 600 PA.

All for a draft price that is ostensibly free in most 10 and 12-team leagues. Gimme, Gimme, Gimme some Nick after Midnight…Wait – wrong song.