New Everyday Starters — Sep 22, 2021

We got some more everyday starters to discuss as we count down the days until the regular season ends.

Gavin Lux | LAD 2B/SS/OF(?)

He’s back! It’s very easy to forget that Lux is a former top prospect, and this time, “former” doesn’t mean like five years ago. Just last year he was ranked second overall among 2020 prospect graduates. Unfortunately, he’s accumulated nearly a full season’s worth of plate appearances with the Dodgers and has done little to justify his former top prospect status.

In the minors, he showed solid plate discipline with mostly double digit walk rates and sub-20% strikeout rates, supported by high single digit SwStk% marks. That’s excellent. What made him so exciting was the power surge he enjoyed in 2019 when his HR/FB rate spiked over 20% and his ISO hit a high of .327 at Triple-A that year. He even stole 10 bases, making him a potential all-category contributor.

The power just hasn’t translated to the Majors yet. This year, he sits with a mere 9.5% HR/FB rate and .129 ISO, and while his career marks are a bit better given his stronger 2019 and 2020 marks, those were over small samples and not nearly good enough to avoid disappointment so far. His maxEV is at a healthy 109.7, but a weak Barrel% means he’s simply not matching those EVs with ideal launch angles. At age 23, it’s far too early to give up on him and the solid maxEV gives us hope that he still has at least league average power in his bat. Between injuries, Lux has been playing every day since his Sep 10 recall, so he’s worth rolling out there given his upside.

Eddy Alvarez | MIA 2B/3B(?)

Since his recall on Sep 7, Alvarez initially started just once out of the Marlins’ first four games. Since, he has started in seven of the team’s last nine games, the majority of which coming at third base.

Surprisingly, Alvarez is already 31 years old and hasn’t even appeared in a FanGraphs article since 2016, excluding a post last year related to the team’s COVID-19 outbreak. And yet, here he is playing every day for a team playing for the future. In the minors, Alvarez has displayed sold plate discipline with double digit walk rates and strikeout rates no higher than the low 20% range, usually. His power has been inconsistent with HR/FB rates from the mid-single digits to the mid-to-high teens and ISO marks sub-.100 to over .200. It’s pretty clear that Alvarez is a complete enigma and there’s no telling how much power, if any, he’ll bring.

He does have some speed, as he’s stolen as many as 53 bases, but that was back in 2015. He’s not nearly as willing to run at his older age now, but can potentially steal a base or two the rest of the way. He has a history of high BABIP marks in the minors, so perhaps his RoS projections are being a little harsh on his projected batting average.

I’m not jumping up and down here, but he’s playing nearly every day and could add a homer and/or steal to your tally.

Willie Calhoun | TEX OF

Man, Calhoun just can’t catch a break. He was just activated a week ago after being out with a fractured forearm that cost him two and a half months, and that came after a strained groin caused him to miss the first two weeks of the season. Now he’s back and serving in his typical strong side platoon role, rotating between DH and left field.

Calhoun still hasn’t put together a full season, but did show us his fantasy potential in 2019, the only year he recorded more than 300 PAs and one in which his power shined. That season, his HR/FB rate stood at 18.4% to go along with a .256 ISO. He has posted single digit HR/FB rates in every other season with at least 100 PAs and an ISO no higher than .126. It’s hard to know what to make of his future when he has surrounded the strong power season with weak performances.

He still makes excellent contact, never posting a SwStk% in double digits and his strikeout rate has sat in the low-to-mid teen range each year since 2019. That’s intriguing. But all those extra balls in play aren’t going for hits as his career BABIP is just .264. He’s a fly ball hitter who hits lots of pop-ups, so we can’t really expect a BABIP spike unless he changes his batted ball distribution.

I do think he has the power and contact ability that one of these years, he’ll stay healthy and hit 30 homers while batting .270. That potential means he’s absolutely worth rostering right now, but is better in daily leagues where you can bench him when the Rangers face a lefty.

Max Schrock | CIN OF

Given the wealth of outfielders the Reds had heading into the season, who would have guessed that it would be Schrock who ends up as their strong side platoon starting left fielder at some point during the season?! Schrock has actually been starting for a while, but it has been difficult to tell because the team has faced so many left-handed starters this month.

Schrock is a 26-year-old who was last ranked as a prospect back in 2018. Heading into the year, he had only recorded 17 MLB PAs, so his current 94 total marks his first somewhat extended look. In the minors, he had shown almost no power through 2019, with low-to-mid-single digit HR/FB rates and ISO marks barely edging over .100. Then something clicked this year, as his HR/FB rate jumped to 13.6% and ISO to .172. The sample remained small and it’s still not earth-shattering, but could be meaningful for a guy who had never showed much power in the past.

His strikeout rate and SwStk% did rise to career worst, suggesting he did potentially sell out for power. Combine that with an extreme fly ball tendency and you have the perfect recipe for a legit transformation. He has also swiped some bases in the past, but attempted none at Triple-A this year, so who knows if we can count on him for much moving forward. He’s got one so far with the Reds to go with his two homers.

I don’t think there’s anything to be excited about here, but if the Reds string together more games against righties, we’ll see Schrock more and perhaps he’ll chip in another homer and/or steal.